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National Situation Update: Friday, September 26, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Puerto Rico Heavy Rainfall

The Puerto Rico Emergency Operations Center (PR EOC) remains partially activated 24/7, along with the Puerto Rico Emergency Management Agency (PREMA) Joint Information Center (partially activated), select ESF's and US Coast Guard Liaison.

The Governor requested a Major Disaster Declaration and the Puerto Rican government has reported five (5) confirmed fatalities due to heavy rainfall and flooding.

Sixteen (16) shelters, with a population of 487 (in 16 municipalities) are open, while 14 preventative shelters remain open in twelve (12) municipalities.

Thirteen (13) rivers are flooded and a total of 43 major roads are closed due to flooding or mudslides.

The Puerto Rico Electric and Power Authority (PREPA) reports approximately 4,000 customers are without service and the Puerto Rico Aqueduct Sewer Authority (PRASA) reports about 18,644 customers are without service.  Restoration of utilities is unknown at this time.

Public Assistance (PA) Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs) were completed in 18 municipalities, Individual Assistance (IA) PDAs were completed in 22 municipalities and PDAs are scheduled for 9 more municipalities, continuing through the weekend.

The Puerto Rican Army National Guard (PR ArNG) has 54 soldiers on State Active Duty (SAD) for water distribution, debris clearance, equipment transportation and civilian relocation. (FEMA Region II & CAD, PREMA, VITEMA, NWS, NGB SitRep #3)

Federal / State Response for Hurricane Ike and Midwest Storms

Region V
Ohio
The State EOC is activated at Level II (Partial Operations) and Joint PDAs are scheduled to begin on October 26.
There are eight (8) fatalities and ten (10) injuries reported by the state.
There are no shelters reported open, while the US Department of Energy (DOE) reports there are 9,595 customers without power.  Power restoration is expected to be completed by midnight, September 26.

Illinois
One (1) fatality is reported by the state.
IA PDAs were completed and PA PDAs are scheduled to begin on September 29.

Indiana
The State EOC is activated at Level IV (Normal Operations) and Joint PDAs were completed in five (5) counties and are ongoing in two (2) counties.
There are eight (8) fatalities and 19 injuries reported by the state.
There is one (1) shelter open with a population of 95, and the US DOE reports there are 6,186 customers remaining without power.  (Region V Operations Report, Sep 25; DOE, Sep 25; NSS Shelter Report, Sep 25)

FEMA Region VI
Louisiana
The Governor's Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness (GOHSEP) is activated at Level III (Emergency Operations).
There are five (5) fatalities reported by the state.
There are seven (7) shelters open with a population of 430, and the US DOE reports 12,287 customers are still without power.
Nineteen (19) of 21 PDAs are completed and there are no reported shortfalls or critical issues at this time.
There are 14 Disaster Recovery Centers (DRCs) and two (2) Mobile Disaster Recovery Centers (MDRCs) in support of Hurricane Gustav/Ike recovery efforts.  (SLB, Sep 25; NSS Shelter Report, Sep 25; DOE, Sep 25)

Texas
The State Operations Center (SOC) is activated at Level I, 24/7 Operations.
There are 19 fatalities reported by the state.
There are 66 shelters open with a population of 4,653 and US DOE reports that 482,840 customers remain without power, with the highest percentages in Harris (393,251), Galveston  (28,098), Brazoria (23,013) and Jefferson (less than 888) Counties.

FEMA continues to supply commodities to the Texas State-managed Resource Staging Area.
There are seven (7) Disaster Recovery Center (DRCs) and 13 Mobile Disaster Recovery Center (MDRCs) operational in the affected areas.  (NSS Shelter Report, Sep 25; DOE, Sep 25; SLB, Sep 25)

Presidio, TX Levee Issue Update:
The release of water from the Luis Leon Reservoir in Chihuahua, Mexico is reduced and hardening of the levees on the U.S. side of the border is complete. (NOC Awareness Report, Sep 25; FEMA HQ)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Tropical Storm Kyle
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm (TS) Kyle was located about 510 miles south-southwest of Bermuda.

TS Kyle is moving toward the north near 12 mph and a turn toward the north-northwest, accompanied by a gradual increase in forward speed, is expected later today and on Saturday, September 27.  On this track, the center of TS Kyle and the strongest winds are forecast to remain west of Bermuda.

Reports from a US Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph, with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and TS Kyle could become a hurricane by Saturday, September 27.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles, mainly east of the center, and the minimum central pressure recently measured by reconnaissance aircraft was 997 mb (29.44 inches).

Extratropical Low #1 - Low Potential for Tropical Cyclone Formation
As of 2:00 a.m. EDT, September 26, a well-defined, non-tropical low pressure system has moved inland over northeastern South Carolina and is located about midway between Myrtle Beach and Florence.

Strong winds, coastal flooding, high surf and dangerous rip currents will gradually subside along the coasts of North and South Carolina today, but will continue along portions of the US mid-Atlantic coast during the next day or two.

Extratropical Low #2 - Low Potential for Tropical Cyclone Formation
As of 2:00 a.m. EDT, September 26, an area of disturbed weather, located in the Bay of Campeche, is moving slowly eastward toward the Yucatan Peninsula.  There are some signs of organization, but this system is expected to move inland over the Western Yucatan before any significant development can occur.

The system could still bring heavy rains to portions of southern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days.
 
Eastern Pacific:
There is no tropical cyclone activity expected in the next 24-48 hours.

Western Pacific:
There is no tropical cyclone activity affecting United States Territories.  (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Thursday, September 25, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 2
Initial attack activity: Light (67)
New large fires: 3
Uncontained large fires: 6
Large fires contained: 0
States with large fires: CA, OR  (NIFC)

Predictive Weather:  Warm and dry across the southwest and central Rockies as high pressure continues to dominate across the Four Corners region.  Southwest winds of 20-30 mph across much of the Great Basin westward to the Sierra Range in eastern California are forecast.  Dry and warm across parts of the Ohio Valley across the northern Florida Panhandle.  Heavy rains and strong winds are expected as a coastal storm moves onshore across the Carolinas up through the mid-Atlantic Seaboard.  Cool, onshore flow across the Pacific Northwest with widespread showers.  (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Puerto Rico:  The Governor of Puerto Rico requested a Major Disaster Declaration as a result of Severe Flooding beginning September 21, 2008 and continuing.  The Governor is requesting Individual Assistance for eight municipalities and Hazard Mitigation for the entire Commonwealth. (FEMA HQ)