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National Situation Update: Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

Northeast
Strong winds, heavy surf and beach erosion will affect beaches through the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday and Thursday. 
Wind gusts around Tidewater, Virginia could exceed 40 mph by late in the day today, with tides running 1-to-3-feet above normal.

South
Heavy surf, gusty winds, dangerous rip currents and increasing rain in the coastal areas in North Carolina, especially the Outer Banks, are forecast for today.

Midwest
A decreasing cold front may still trigger isolated showers and thunderstorms from the Great Lakes to the central Plains.
A few storms may become severe over parts of southern Iowa and Nebraska.  (NOAA, National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Puerto Rico Heavy Rainfall (93L)

The Puerto Rico Emergency Operations Center (PR EOC) is partially activated 24/7, along with the Puerto Rico Emergency Management Agency (PREMA) Joint Information Center (partially activated), select ESF's and US Coast Guard Liaison.
The Governor has declared a State of Emergency and the Puerto Rican government has reported four (4) confirmed fatalities and zero (0) injuries due to heavy rainfall and flooding.
Seventeen (17) shelters, with a population of 528 (in 15 municipalities) are open, while 14 preventative shelters remain open in twelve (12) municipalities.  (FEMA Region II SPOT Report)
Thirteen (13) rivers are flooded and a total of 27 major roads in 17 municipalities are closed due to flooding or mudslides.
The Puerto Rico Electric and Power Authority (PREPA) reports approximately 5,800 (0.37%) customers are without service and the Puerto Rico Aqueduct Sewer Authority (PRASA) reports about 36,774 (2.94%) customers are without service.  Restoration of utilities is unknown at this time.
Public schools remain closed in 14 municipalities due to heavy rains and flooding.
Joint IA and PA Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs) will begin today, September 24, in 12 municipalities with PA and IA PDAs requested for an additional 13 municipalities.  Also, facilities are being pre-identified for a potential JFO. (FEMA Region II & CAD, PREMA, VITEMA, NWS)

Federal / State Response for Hurricane Ike and Midwest Storms

Region V
Ohio
The State EOC is activated at Level II (Partial Operations).
There are seven (7) fatalities and one (1) injury reported.
There is one (1) shelter open with a population of 12 while the US Department of Energy (DOE) reported there are 25,309 customers without power.  Power restoration is expected to be completed by early next week (Sep 29).  (Region V Operations Report Sep 23, DOE Sep 23, NSS Shelter Report, Sep 23)
Indiana
The State EOC is activated at Level IV (Normal Operations) and Joint PDAs continue to assess damages from the severe weather.
There are eight (8) fatalities and 19 injuries reported.
There is one (1) shelter open with a population of six (6) and the US DOE reported there are 6,186 customers remain without power. (DOE, Sep 23; NSS Shelter Report, Sep 23)

FEMA Region VI
Louisiana
The Governor's Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness (GOHSEP) is activated at Level III (Emergency Operations).
There are five (5) fatalities and zero (0) injuries reported.
There are seven (7) shelters open with a population of 489 and the US DOE reported 12,287 customers are still without power.
There are 14 Disaster Recovery Centers (DRCs) and two (2) Mobile Disaster Recovery Centers (MDRCs) in support of Hurricane Gustav/Ike recovery efforts. (SLB, Sep 23; NSS Shelter Report, Sep 23; DOE, Sep23)
Texas
The State Operations Center (SOC) is activated at Level I, 24/7 Operations.
There are 19 fatalities and zero (0) injuries reported.
There are 126 shelters open with a population of 11,937, and US DOE reports that 745,241 customers remain without power.
All FEMA-managed Points of Distribution (PODS) have been closed.  FEMA continues to supply commodities to the Texas State-managed Resource Staging Area.
There are three (3) Disaster Recovery Center (DRCs) and 11 Mobile Disaster Recovery Center (MDRCs) located in Texas.
The City of Galveston will reopen today, September 24, and the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has established 28 Rights-of-Entry (ROE) sites for citizens to register their property for the Blue Roof Program.  (JFO SitRep #13; NSS Shelter Report, Sep 23; DOE, Sep 23; SLB, Sep 23)
Presidio, TX Levee issue update:
Presidio County, along with the City of Presidio, continues efforts to mitigate the flood impacts from the Rio Grande River. 
Over 1,300 sandbags are being placed on the existing levee to add support; in total, 6,500 sandbags are in place in all the problem areas.  The Department of Defense (DoD) continues to provide CH-47 helicopter support to provide sandbags and supplies.
Helicopters are being used to fill in openings under bridges with large sandbags in an existing railroad right-of-way to create secondary levees.
Mexico has temporarily slowed the rate of water release from the Luis Leon Reservoir in order to allow workers time to shore up the Presidio levees.
The response priorities for this incident are to prevent levee failure, continue maintaining emergency shelter operations, ensure Public Health needs are addressed, providing water/wastewater services in the City/County if a catastrophic flood event occurs and providing for a rapid response for search and rescue should the levees fail. (TX SOC Rio Grande River Flood Event SITREP # 3, USNORTHCOM)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
93L - High Potential for Tropical Cyclone Development
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, September 24, the broad area of low pressure over Hispaniola continues to generate a large area of cloudiness and showers, extending northward from the northeastern Caribbean Sea, across Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and into the western Atlantic.
This system is interacting with land and has not yet developed a well-defined surface circulation, but atmospheric conditions remain favorable for development and a tropical depression could form later today or tonight as this system moves north of Hispaniola.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and the potential for life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are expected to continue over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today.
Heavy rains could also spread northward over the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today or tonight.
Eastern Pacific:
90L - Low Potential for Tropical Cyclone Development
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, September 24, shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased in association with the surface low pressure system located approximately 430 miles south of the southern tip of Baja, California.
This system is expected to move west-northwestward over the next two days and further development, if any, should be slow to occur.
Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity affecting United States Territories. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Tuesday, September 23, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 2
Initial attack activity: Light (70)
New large fires: 0
Uncontained large fires: 4
Large fires contained: 1
States with large fires: CA, NV, OR

Predictive Fire:  It will become warmer and drier from Texas westward across the Southwest as high pressure starts to build in across the Four Coners region.  The Northern Rockies area is also forecast to dry out and become a little warmer.  A cold front will approach the Pacific Northwest and northern California, bringing a cool westerly onshore flow, along with increasing high clouds.  Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue again across Florida.  Elsewhere, the forecast calls for mainly seasonable, early fall conditions. (NIFC, NICC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The President signed a Disaster Declaration, FEMA-1795-DR, for severe storms and flooding that occurred in Indiana, September 23, 2008 and continuing.  Three (3) counties (Lake, LaPorte and Porter) are eligible for Individual Assistance and Hazard Mitigation is approved statewide.  The FCO will be Stephen M. DeBlasio, Sr. (FEMA HQ)