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National Situation Update: Saturday, September 20, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

Midwest
Most of the Midwest will be dry except for isolated thunderstorms and showers over the Great Lakes and parts southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Flood Warnings continue for numerous rivers in Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, and Michigan.  Highs will be in the 70s and 80s for most of the region.
Northeast
Warm and dry conditions are forecasted for most of the Northeast.  High temperatures will range from the 60s in northern Maine to the mid 70s in Washington, D.C.
South  
Scattered thunderstorms and showers are forecasted along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, as well as the lower Mississippi Valley.  Heavy rain is possible across southern Florida.  Numerous Flood Watches and Warnings remain in effect for portions of Texas and Louisiana.  High temperatures will range from the mid 70s in Raleigh, NC to the mid 80s in central Florida.
West  
Low pressure over the region will cause temperatures to be 10 to 20 degrees below average. 
Rain showers are forecasted for the northern Rockies and snow is possible for the highest mountains of the Cascades.  Red Flag Warning remains in effect for most of Idaho until 8:00 a.m. EDT today.
Temperatures will range from the low 60s in Washington to the mid 90s in Nevada. (NOAA, National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Federal / State Response for Hurricane Ike and Midwest Storms

Region IV
Kentucky

• State EOC Activated at Level II (Partial Activation)
• 2 fatalities; 26 injuries reported
• 121,900 remain without power.  (DOE 3:00 p.m. EDT Sept. 19)1 shelter; population 20.  (NSS as of 12:00 p.m. EDT Sept. 19)
• No request for Federal assistance

Region V
Michigan

• State EOC partially activated
• No shelters with populations reported.
• State PDAs are ongoing
• No requests for Federal assistance.

Illinois

• State EOC is not activated.
• Joint PDAs are ongoing.
• 1 fatality; no injuries reported
• 9 shelters; population 101 (NSS as of 12:00 p.m. EDT Sept. 19)
• Most streets and local highways are open and passable and most rivers are receding.
• All power has been restored.

Ohio

• Ohio State EOC is partially activated with state agencies conducting 24hr operations.
• A FEMA liaison is active in the Ohio State EOC.
• 7 fatalities; 1 injury reported
• 313,400 customers remain without power.  Complete power restoration is expected on Sunday evening, September 21.(DOE 3:00 p.m. EDT Sept. 19)
• 10 shelters; population 39 (NSS as of 12:00 p.m. EDT Sept. 19).
• Operations have begun to transition from response to recovery.

Indiana

• Indiana State EOC is partially activated with state agencies and conducting 24 hr operations.
• Joint PDAs are ongoing.
• 7 fatalities; 19 injuries reported
• 23,340 customers remain without power.(DOE 3:00 p.m. EDT Sept. 19)
• 3 shelters; population 157. NSS as of 12:00 p.m. EDT Sept. 19)

FEMA Region VI
Louisiana

• GOSHEP activated at Level III (Region VI Operations Report Sep 18)
• 5 fatalities; no injuries reported
• 14,786 customers remain without power  (DOE as of 3:00 p.m. EDT Sept. 19)
• 12 shelters; population 810. (NSS as of 12:00 p.m. EDT Sept. 19)
• The Minerals Management Service (MMS) reports as of 12:30 p.m. EDT on September 19, 262 of 717 production platforms and six of the 121 rigs remain evacuated in the Gulf of Mexico.  MMS estimates 89.2 percent of the oil production and 75.4 percent of the natural gas production remain shut-in.(NICC

Texas

• Activated at Level I, 24/7
• 12 fatalities; no injuries reported. (TX Spot Report)
• 1,412,448 customers remain without power. (DOE 3:00 p.m. EDT Sept. 19)
• 213 shelters; population 22,215. (NSS Report, Sep 18)
• Water has been restored to all areas behind the seawall in Galveston, but the rest of the city remains without running water nearly one week after Hurricane Ike. The city's water tanks are beginning to refill, but officials are concerned about the status of the line that connects Galveston and its mainland water source. (NICC)

Presidio update:  City of Presidio issued mandatory evacuation order for low lying areas due to erosion of levees on The Rio Grande.  Governor Perry has been in contact with Mexico's ambassador and the U.S. State Department regarding this disaster.  A USACE hydrologist is on scene to assist.  The state of Texas requested a Federal emergency declaration today.  Due to water over the bridge, the international border crossing was closed and will remain closed until further notice.  About 4,500 residents remain at risk of flooding if US levees break. (TX Spot Report #2D 11:00 a.m. CDT September 19, 2008)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Invest 93 - Medium Potential for Development
A westward-moving tropical wave accompanied by a broad surface low pressure system over the southeastern Caribbean Sea is producing widespread cloudiness and showers over the Lesser Antilles and adjacent Caribbean and Atlantic waters.  This system has changed little in organization during the past several hours.  While upper-level winds are currently unfavorable, they are expected to become more conducive for some development to occur over the next couple of days.
Area 2 - Low Potential for Development
A broad area of low pressure accompanied by disorganized shower activity has formed over the western Caribbean Sea just east of the Honduras-Nicaragua border.   Upper-level winds are currently not favorable for additional development.

Eastern Pacific:
Invest 90 - Medium Potential for Development
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south through southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is continuing to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next couple of days as it moves slowly toward the west or west-northwest.  Locally heavy rains associated with this system are possible along the Pacific coast of Central America and southeastern Mexico.

Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity affecting United States Territories.(NOAA, HPC,  National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

An earthquake, magnitude 4.2, occurred on Hawaii's Big Island, 20 miles southwest of Hawaiian Beaches and 26 miles south from Hilo, HI at a depth of 5.8 miles at 11:59 p.m. EDT on September 19, 2008.  No damage or injuries are reported at this time and no tsunami was generated. (U.S. Geological Survey, Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, Hawaii National Park, Hawaii)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of  Friday, September 19, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 2
Initial attack activity: Light (60)
New large fires: 2
Uncontained large fires: 6
Large fires contained: 0
States with large fires: CA, MT, OR
Predictive Fire: Thunderstorm activity today will be mainly across interior portions of the Pacific Northwest and northeastern California. These storms will be a mix of wet and dry, but this entire area should see a wetter transition to showers late today. Otherwise, it will be seasonably warm and dry across the Great Basin, Rockies, and much of the Northeast. Scattered showers and wet thunderstorms are forecast for most of the Southeast.   (NIFC, NICC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The Governor of Texas requested an Emergency Declaration as a result of severe storms and flooding causing a levee overflow beginning on September 7, 2008 and continuing.
The Governor of Alabama requested a Major Disaster Declaration as a result of Hurricane Ike, beginning on September 12, 2008 and continuing.  (FEMA HQ)