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National Situation Update: Monday, September 15, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Commercial Aviation ORANGE

Midwest
The effects of moisture from Tropical Storm Lowell passed through the region Friday and Saturday dropping up to 10 inches of rain. On Sunday, the remnants of Hurricane Ike left an additional 1 to 4 inches of rain. Many streams and rivers have flooded or will flood through the first half of the upcoming week.

Northeast
Some rain is forecast for New York and northern New England. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible Monday afternoon and early evening along the coast from the New York metro south through eastern Virginia.

South  
A cold front moves into the Southeast on Monday bringing scattered rain and thunderstorms. The rain and thunderstorm activity could move to the Louisiana coast, but drier conditions are anticipated for Texas.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast from North Carolina south to Georgia and Florida.

West  
A few isolated thunderstorms are predicted over the Colorado portion of the Rocky Mountains Monday afternoon, September 16.

There is a threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms in the Sierra-Nevada Mountains. (NOAA, National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Tropical Weather

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Tropical Depression Ike   
At 10:00 p.m. CDT, Sunday night, the remnants of Ike moving northeast. Primary heavy rainfall moving along with the remnants of Ike into Canada; Rainfall amounts are forecast from half to an inch along the US/ Canada border from New York to Maine. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with gusts of 40 mph. Flood watches and warnings exist for southeast Texas, eastern Louisiana, Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, northwest Indiana, and Michigan.

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center will no longer issue advisories on this system.

Area 1
Westward tropical wave located about 575 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands producing disorganized shower and thunderstorms. Upper level winds not favorable for development. Tropical cyclone formation not expected here or elsewhere during the next 48 hrs.

Eastern Pacific:
No tropical development forecast for the next 24 hours.

Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity affecting United States Territories. (NOAA, HPC,  National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Federal / State Response for Hurricane Ike

Region IV
Kentucky
Activated at Level III (Full Activation). The SEOC has reported high wind damage as a result of Ike. There are reports of downed trees and power outages state-wide. There have been no requests for federal assistance at this time.

FEMA Region VI
Flood and Flash Flood Watches are in effect from coastal Texas into northeast Louisiana and western Mississippi as a result of heavy rain associated with Hurricane Ike.

Regional priorities include:  Completion of Search and Rescue operations, completion of aerial assessments of impacted areas, ensuring forward assets and personnel are supported for post-hurricane operations, supporting sustainment of shelter operations and implementation of recovery plans.

Louisiana
Activated at Level I (Full Activation). GOHSEP reports 4 fatalities as a result of Hurricane Ike (confirmed by the medical examiner). 170,311 customers are without power as of 3:00 p.m. EDT September, 14, as a result of Ike and Gustav.

Points of Distribution (PODS) will be open as soon as Monday, as local governments are set up and able to receive supplies.

There are 22 shelters open with a population 1,472 as of 12:00 a.m. EDT September 15.  (ESF 6)

Texas
The State remains activated at Level I, 24/7 and is now in a Reentry/ Recovery Phase and focusing on the most severely hit areas - Brazoria, Galveston, SE Harris County, and Orange County. USACE will immediately begin to execute the debris clearing mission specifically with 20 crews that were on stand-by.

Major flooding is reported in Houston, particularly in Harris County. 313 people were rescued yesterday and sent to shelters in San Antonio, TX. There are 254 shelters with a total population of 36,026 as of 12:00 a.m. EDT September 15. 

16 refineries remain shut-down in Louisiana and Texas;  8 refineries are operating with reduced runs, and 4 refineries are operating within normal ranges. Colonial gas pipeline has resumed operations and is operating at reduced flow. The Explorer pipeline is making final preparations for start up after power is restored; no significant damage has been noted. 2.4 million customers remain without power as of 3:00 p.m. EDT September, 14

Flights to resume Monday at Bush Intercontinental (IAH) pending airport conditions.  All flights cancelled Monday at Houston Hobby (HOU). Resumption of service pending airport conditions.

FEMA ordered 100 ice trucks each day, from September 15-19, to be delivered to Beaumont, TX. 20 trucks of Meals Ready to Eat (MREs) and 40 trucks of water were sent to Reliant Stadium Sunday.  (Region IV, Region VI)

Presidio, Texas Levee Concerns

In Presidio, Texas the water levels in the Rio Grande are expected to rise to a critical level due to the release of water from the Luis Leon Reservoir.

The Mayor of Presidio declared a mandatory evacuation on Sunday. Although the levee protecting the city is intact and no water is impacting any structures in Presidio, evacuation of residents will be utilized as a precaution. Current flood stage is at 23 ft. and rising. Forecast crest will be at 28.5 ft.

The International Boundary Water Commission (IBWC) reports the Mexican Water Commission has diverted water from their reservoir/levee system into agriculture farmlands in an attempt to stem the flow of water, down the Rio Grande. With the additional rainfall from Lowell, the Rio Grande River is forecast to reach near record levels this week.

Combined efforts from Federal, State, County, and City officials have formulated a plan to assist those (approximately 550 individuals) needing aid in two designated shelter locations. (Region VI, Presidio County EM)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No significant activity to report. (USGS/NEIC, Pacific, West Coast & Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Saturday, September 14, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 2
Initial attack activity: Light (59)
New large fires: 2
Uncontained large fires: 5
Large fires contained: 1
States with large fires: ID, CA, OR

Disaster Declaration Activity

On September 13, 2008, FEMA-1791-DR-LA amendment # 1 will revise the declaration of September 13, 2008, to authorize Federal funds for assistance for debris removal (Category A) under the Public Assistance program, including Direct Federal assistance, at 100 percent of the total eligible costs for a period of up to 72 hours. This adjustment to State and local cost sharing applies only to Public Assistance costs and Direct Federal assistance eligible for such adjustments under the law.

On September 14, 2008, FEMA-1791-DR-LA amendment # 2 for the 29 counties to add emergency protective measures (Category B), including direct Federal assistance, under the Public Assistance program (already designated for debris removal [Category A] including Direct Federal assistance, under the Public Assistance program). (FEMA HQ)