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National Situation Update: Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West:
An upper level trough over the region, will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms from Montana southward into Arizona. No significant accumulations are expected.  High temperatures will range from the 40s in Wyoming's Big Horn Mountains to around 100 in the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts.
Midwest:
Eastern portions of the region will see fair skies and warmer temperatures, from southerly winds, as the high pressure center moves to the east.  A low pressure trough will produce showers and thunderstorms from New Mexico to the Dakotas and spread eastward as the high pressure center retreats to the east.
High temperatures will range from the mid-60s in northeastern Minnesota to the mid-80s in western Kansas.
South:
Hurricane Ike continues to move westward across the Gulf of Mexico.  See the latest information at www.nhc.noaa.gov/.  A stationary front draped across the region from Texas to the Carolinas will result in showers and thunderstorms over much of the region. West Texas could see as much as an inch and a half of precipitation.  High temperatures are forecast to range from the low 70s in northern and western North Carolina to the mid-90s around Houston, Texas.
Northeast:
High pressure centered over New York will produce fair skies and seasonable temperatures for most of the region.   The stationary front over the Carolinas will produce showers as far north as southern Kentucky, Virginia and West Virginia.  High temperatures are predicted to range from around 60 in far northern Maine to the mid-70s in Virginia.(NOAA, National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Federal / State Response and Recovery for Gustav and Ike

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)
Federal priorities include restoration of power, recovery operations to include preliminary damage assessments, total asset visibility for all PODS, potable water assessments, medical support to affected population and establishing contingency plans for subsequent events.

FEMA National Response Coordination Center (NRCC):
The NRCC will operate at Level II 24/7 operations with reduced night staffing.
The NRCC will be activated to Level I with 24/7 operations effective 7:00 am EDT, Thursday, September 11, all ESF's and liaisons.
Discussion and planning are underway with EMAC coordinators in the Gulf States regarding Hurricane Ike preparations.

FEMA Region IV:
RRCC is at Level I and will deactivate, effective September 10, 2008, 7:00 am EDT.
Demobilizing Albany Marine Corps Logistics Center (NLSA) and diverting all commodities to Maxwell AFB, AL and NAS Meridian, MS.
Incident Response Team and 9 Urban Search and Rescue (US&R) Task Forces have been pre-staged at Maxwell AFB, AL, Meridian NAS, MS, Jacksonville, FL and Tallahassee, FL in preparation for Hurricane Ike.
Region IV has no unmet needs.

Florida
FL EOC to return to "monitoring" status on September 10.
MERS (IRV, EOV) located in the Florida EOC.
Monroe County EOC is activated at Level One (full activation).
Key West International Airport, Key West NAS and Marathon Airport remains closed. (R-IV Exec Summary)
The Key West and Key Largo VA Hospitals will re-open today.
Emergency Management Assistance Compact (EMAC) assets deployed to FL.  Florida will be able to support EMAC requests for Hurricane Ike.
1 shelter is open with 376 evacuees. (NSS Spot Report 9:00 a.m., ESF 08)
Mississippi
Activated at Level I (Full Activation).
2 shelters are open with a population of 49 from Gustav. (NSS Spot Report 9:00 a.m. September9)
Georgia
Activation Level III (normal operations). 
FEMA Urban Search and Rescue Teams and MERS support staged in Atlanta, GA in preparation for Hurricane Ike.

Alabama
EOC activated at Level III (partial activation).(Reg IV)
The JFO for EM-3292 is activated in Montgomery, AL.
FCO remains operational at the Alabama EOC.

FEMA Region V:
Validate host-state shelter capacity and preparedness to accept Louisiana CTN evacuees for Ike. (SLB)

Illinois:
1 shelter open with 3 evacuees. (Not verified by region, NSS Spot Report, ESF 08)
Gustav JFO IL cell 0700-1900 CDT

FEMA Region VI:
RRCC operating at Level I, providing 24/7 coverage with all ESFs in place except 10 and 14.
PDA for IA in LA are expected to be completed by Friday, September 12.
IA and PA PDA teams are awaiting assignments for Hurricane Ike.
All general population evacuees have returned to LA, TX, and AR with the exception of 300 medical and special needs evacuees.
FEMA Region VI has assumed the lead for overall Federal coordination of evacuation operations between TX, host states, FEMA Regional offices, and other agency partners.  (SLB)
Federal priorities include validation of TX and LA air evacuation needs for general and medical special needs populations, confirmation that host state capabilities will be able to meet evacuation state needs, meeting all communicated shortfalls or gaps, re-positioning assets in preparation for Hurricane Ike, and post-landfall search and rescue.(SLB)
Louisiana Preparations for Hurricane Ike:
GOSHEP activated at Level I (Full Activation).
State EOC (Baton Rouge) operating at Level I (full activation).
The Governor issued a declaration of State of Emergency in preparation for Hurricane Ike.
Louisiana is requesting 80 Emergency Medical Service Ambulance Type II Strike Teams to include 5 ambulances and several personnel per team.
The State is working with the National Guard and FEMA Region VI to mobilize air and ground ambulance capabilities for Hurricane Ike.
Activated a Hurricane Ike Task Force to plan for the evacuation and sheltering of citizens due to the possible landfall of Hurricane Ike on the Louisiana coast with a possible evacuation decision coming as early as today. (SLB)

Louisiana Recovery from Hurricane Gustav:
All evacuees have returned to Louisiana with the exception of those with medical and special needs.
The State has reported 29 fatalities attributed to Hurricane Gustav.
FEMA is providing basic commodities of water, ice, tarps, and food (MREs). Commodities continue to be distributed at 50 points of distribution where power outages were most severe.
Louisiana has 26 shelters open with a population of 2028 as of 9:00 a.m. EDT September 9.  
EPA reports 63 operational wastewater facilities, 7 are not operational, and 104 have not yet been contacted. EPA reports 483 operating drinking water systems, 38 not operating (population impact 6,428), and 7 unknown status (population impact 1,312). 73 facilities are operating with boil water notices.   
Drinking water is a concern in Saint Mary and Morgan Parishes.   
Re-entry process has slowed as Ike approaches.
Texas:
The TX SEOC is at Level I.
TX Military Forces are on standby for deployment as needed.
TX Task Forces 1 and 2 are on standby if search and rescue capabilities are needed.
TX Commission on Environmental Quality is working on extending authorization for current fuel waivers in preparation of Hurricane Ike.  Fuel Teams are working to ensure adequate fuel supplies along potential evacuation routes. (SLB)
TX beginning evacuations today with a focus on special needs, hospitals, and critical needs.
Houston-Galveston have activated the Port Coordination Team to begin extensive preparations for the ports of Houston, Texas City, Bayport, Galveston and Freeport.
National Ambulance contract executed for TX 300 ambulances; 105 units on road to Corpus Christi / McAllen area. All 300 should arrive today with 3000 para transit seats.
A National Logistics Staging Area has been established at Ft. Sam Houston. (SLB)
Arkansas:
Arkansas DEM is activated at Level IV (full activation).
All Hurricane Gustav evacuees have returned to Arkansas with the exception of those with medical and special needs.
Oklahoma:
Oklahoma DEM is Level III (Normal Operations)
Prepared to shelter 10,000 evacuees from TX. (SLB)

FEMA Reg VII:
Validate host-state shelter capacity and preparedness to accept Louisiana CTN evacuees for Ike. (SLB)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Hurricane Ike   
At 5:00 am EDT, the center of Hurricane Ike was located about 125 miles north-northeast if Cabo San Antonio on the western tip of Cuba.  Ike is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so.   Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph with higher gusts.  Ike is a Category One hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Strengthening is expected and Ike could become a major hurricane in the Central Gulf.  Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles. Estimated minimum central pressure is 963 millibars or 28.44 inches.  Estimated landfall will be 85 miles northeast of Corpus Christi, TX on Saturday, September 13, at 3:00 a.m. EDT.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Depression Lowell
As of 2:00 am PDT Tropical Storm was about 190 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California and 325 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.  Lowell is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph. A turn toward the northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed is forecasted.   Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.  Some gradual weakening is possible during the next 24 hours.  No threat to CONUS anticipated at this time.

Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity affecting United States Territories. (NOAA, HPC,  National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

The USGS reports a magnitude 6.1 earthquake occurred Tuesday, September 09, 2008 at 8:22 EDT 100 miles south southwest of Dadali, Santa Isabel, Solomon Islands at a depth of  6.2 miles. There were no reports of damage or injury and no tsunami was generated. (USGS/NEIC, Pacific, West Coast & Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Monday, September 9, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 2
Initial attack activity: Light (187)
New large fires: 0
Uncontained large fires: 6
Large fires contained: 0
States with large fires: CA, NV, OR, UT and ID.

Disaster Declaration Activity

On September 09, 2008, FEMA-1785-DR-FL dated August 24, 2008, amendment # 7 to include 7 counties for Public Assistance.
On September 09, 2008, FEMA-1777-DR-MI, dated July 14, 2008, amendment # 2 to terminate appointment of W. Michael Moore and appoint Michael H. Smith.
On September 09, 2008, FEMA-1773-DR-MO, dated June 25, 2008, amendment # 11 to include 4 counties for Individual Assistance (3 counties designated for PA), 3 counties for IA and PA, and 6 counties for PA.
On September 09, 2008, FEMA-1763-DR-IA, dated May 27, 2008, to adjust cost sharing at 75% of total eligible costs.
On September 9, 2008, the Governor of Mississippi requests an Emergency Declaration due to the anticipated impact of Hurricane Ike for PA Cat A (debris removal) and Cat B to include Direct Federal Assistance statewide.
On September 09, 2008, FEMA-1788-DR-ME dated July 18 to August 22, 2008 was declared PA for 3 counties and assistance for all counties in the state under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program.
On September 09, 2008, FEMA -3290-EM-TX dated August 29, 2008, amendment # 1 closes the incident period.
On September 09, 2008, the Governor of Mississippi requests a revision for the Major Disaster Declaration for Hurricane Gustav dated August 28 and continuing. The request is for PA (all categories) for 20 counties, PA (Cat B), including direct Federal assistance, for 62 counties previously declared under FEMA-3291-EM-MS and Hazard Mitigation statewide. Also requests 100% reimbursement for Cat B, including direct Federal assistance for the first 72 hours beginning on August 28, 2008.