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National Situation Update: Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West:
Weather in the region will be very quiet with only isolated showers and thunderstorms in the higher elevations of the Four Corners and over the northern Rockies.  Maximum temperatures will range from the 50s in the northern Rockies and Cascades to over 100 in the Sonoran and Mojave Deserts
Midwest:
Under building high pressure conditions, the region will be generally fair. There will be a few lingering showers in Ohio and Kentucky as the front moves to the east.  High temperatures are forecast to range from the low 60s on the Upper Peninsula of Michigan to around 80 in far western Nebraska.
South:
The southern end of the cold front discussed above will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms from Tennessee across Arkansas and Texas.
Bands of showers, thunderstorms and even tornadoes associated with the outer bands of Hurricane Ike are possible in southern Florida. The Florida Keys will have rain squalls, thunderstorms and gusty winds as Ike moves over western Cuba.  High temperatures are predicted to range from the low 70s in the Texas Panhandle to the low 90s along the Gulf Coast.
Northeast:
A frontal system associated with a low moving off the Great Lakes will produce showers and thunderstorms across much of the region.  Late in the day clearing is possible behind the front in western New York state and western Pennsylvania.   High temperatures will range from the low 60s in northern Maine to the 80s from Philadelphia southward. (NOAA, National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Federal / State Response and Recovery for Gustav, Hanna, and Ike

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)
Baton Rouge JFO will assume the lead overall Federal coordination role for the air and rail evacuations and return of Louisiana CTN evacuees for Ike.(SLB)
FEMA and other agency partners are working closely with Texas, Louisiana, and all host states to ensure any necessary evacuations of general, critical transportation needs, and medical special needs populations are coordinated, ensuring that there are no unmet needs.
Federal priorities include: restoration of power, recovery operations to include preliminary damage assessments, total asset visibility for all PODS, potable water assessments, medical support to affected population and establishing contingency plans for subsequent events.

FEMA Region III:
ERT-A is deployed to Raleigh, NC EOC.
FEMA Region IV:
RRCC Level I, 24/7 with all ESFs.
The National IMAT-East is deployed to Jackson, MS.
Region IV IMAT deployed to Tallahassee, FL.
Region IV ERT-A deployed to Alabama. (Reg IV & Reg VIII)
Incident Response Team and 9 Urban Search and Rescue (US&R) Task Forces have been pre-staged in Maxwell AFB, AL; Meridian NAS, MS; Jacksonville, FL and Tallahassee, FL in preparation for Hurricane Ike.
Region IV has no unmet needs.
Validate host-state shelter capacity and preparedness to accept Louisiana CTN evacuees from Ike.(SLB)  
Joint Field Office (JFO) operational in Orlando, FL for DR-1785.
Transitional Recovery Office (TRO) operational in Montgomery, AL for DR-1605.
Transitional Recovery Office (TRO) operational in Biloxi, MS for DR-1604.

Florida
Activated at Level II; (partial activation).
Florida Preparations for Hurricane Ike:
Region IV ERT-A IMAT, and MERS (IRV, EOV) located in the Florida EOC
Florida will be able to support Emergency Management Assistance Compact (EMAC) requests for Hurricane Ike starting today.
Monroe County EOC is activated at Level One (full activation).
Standing down search and rescue assets (SAR) and demobilizing teams from Tropical Storm Hanna as well as re-positioning assets to prepare for Hurricane Ike.
Monroe County has requested North Carolina Air National Guard to move hospital from Marathon and Key West patients.    
Sheltering and feeding operations are supporting evacuations from Monroe County. The Salvation Army (TSA), American Red Cross (ARC) and South Baptist Convention (SBC) are operating feeding units and have units on stand-by to provide assistance as required.
The Florida International University (FIU) in Miami is taking evacuees with pets; pets will be transported from FIU to Miami Dade Animal Services Facility and returned after the storm.
Florida Keys Marathon Airport closed 1200 hrs Monday. (SLB)
An Emergency Declaration for Florida has been declared for Debris Removal and Emergency Protective Measures (Category B); including direct Federal assistance, under the Public Assistance program 75 percent Federal Funding for Monroe County.
The Key West and Key Largo VA Hospitals closed on Sunday, September 7 and will re-open on Wednesday, September 10.
1 shelter is open with 352 evacuees. (NSS Spot Report 9:00 a.m., ESF 08)

Mississippi
Activated at Level I (Full Activation).
National IMAT EAST is deployed to MS.
7 shelters are open with a population of 261. (NSS Spot Report 9:00 a.m. September8)
Georgia
Activation Level III (normal operations). 
FEMA Urban Search and Rescue Teams and MERS support staged in Atlanta, GA in preparation for Hurricane Ike

Alabama
EOC activated at Level III (partial activation). (Reg IV)
The JFO for EM-3292 is activated in Montgomery, AL.
FCO and Region VIII ERT-A remain operational at the Alabama EOC.
All Louisiana residents have been returned with the exception of two hospitalized patients.

FEMA Region V:
Region V IMAT en route to Shreveport, LA today for Ike. (SLB)
Validate host-state shelter capacity and preparedness to accept Louisiana CTN evacuees for Ike. (SLB)

Illinois:
1 shelter open with 3 evacuees.(Not verified by region, NSS Spot Report, ESF 08)

FEMA Region VI:
RRCC is activated Level II and will increase to Level 1 at 0700, Tuesday, September 09.
Region VI IMAT is operational at the JFO in Austin, TX.
Preliminary Damage Assessments for Individual Assistance in Louisiana are expected to be completed by Friday, September 12.
All general population evacuees have returned to LA, TX, and AR with the exception of 300 medical and special needs evacuees.
FEMA Region VI has assumed the lead for overall Federal coordination of evacuation operations between Texas, host states, FEMA Regional offices, and other agency partners.  (SLB)
Federal priorities are: validation of Texas and Louisiana air evacuation needs for general and medical special needs populations, confirmation that host state capabilities will be able to meet evacuation state needs and meeting all communicated shortfalls or gaps, re-positioning assets in preparation for Hurricane Ike, and post-landfall search and rescue.(SLB)
Host State Evacuation
Alabama (host state) looking at the possibility of accepting 2,000 evacuees.
Florida; only accepting self evacuees.  
Georgia; accepting self evacuees; wants to be considered as a last option to host LA evacuees.
Kentucky (host state) looking at the possibility of accepting 1,250 evacuees.
Mississippi; will only accept self evacuees.
Tennessee will not host LA evacuees due to the recovery of Hurricane Gustav.

Louisiana:
GOSHEP activated at Level I (Full Activation).
The Governor issued a declaration of State of Emergency in preparation for Hurricane Ike.
24 shelters were open with a population of 2,365. (NSS Spot Report 9:00 a.m. September 8, ESF 08)

Louisiana Recovery from Hurricane Gustav:
All evacuees have returned to Louisiana with the exception of those with medical and special needs.
The State has reported 29 fatalities attributed to Hurricane Gustav.
The Governor's Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness (GOHSEP) reported general reopening of State facilities occurred beginning Sunday, September 7.
FEMA has been providing basic commodities of water, ice, tarps, and food (MREs). Commodities continue to be distributed by Louisiana National Guard at 56 points of distribution where power outages were most severe.
Louisiana Dept of Education reports that 59 school districts will be open today, up from 18 school districts last week. Anticipate 64 districts will be open by Friday, September 12.  Goal is to have 100% back in school by September 15, but this is dependant upon resolution of power issues in 6 school districts from Gustav.(SLB)

Texas:
The Texas SEOC is at Level I today in preparation for Hurricane Ike.
2 shelters are open with 0 evacuees. (NSS Spot Report 9:00 a.m. September8, ESF 08)
Special needs evacuations began on September 8, 2008 for Ike. (SLB)

Arkansas:
Arkansas DEM is activated at Level IV (full activation).
The state has requested PA PDA teams for Tuesday, September 9.(All FEMA Regions and State EOC Reports)

FEMA Reg VII:
Validate host-state shelter capacity and preparedness to accept Louisiana CTN evacuees for Ike. (SLB)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Hurricane Ike
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys, from Ocean Reef southward to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay.  Florida should continue to monitor the progress of Ike.  At 05:00 am EDT, the center of Hurricane Ike was located about 85 miles south-southeast of Havana Cuba.  Ike is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph, and is expected to continue for the next day or two.  On this track, the center of Hurricane Ike will cross western Cuba during the day and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday.
Data from a reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph with higher gusts.  Ike is a Category One Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.   A slight increase in intensity is possible if the center remains over water.  Strengthening is forecast once Ike moves into the Gulf of Mexico.   Storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet, along with large and dangerous waves, are possible in the Florida Keys.  Large swells generated by Ike will continue to affect portions of the Southeast United States coast during the next couple of days. Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible over the Florida Keys. 

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Storm Lowell
As of 02:00 PDT Tropical Storm was about 245 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California and 320 miles south of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.  Lowell is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph. A turn toward the north is forecasted today.  Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts.  Some fluctuations in strength are possible with gradual weakening expected to begin by Wednesday.  No threat to CONUS anticipated at this time.

Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity affecting United States Territories. (NOAA, HPC,  National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

The USGS reports that a magnitude 6.2 earthquake occurred at Monday, September 08, 2008 at 11:03 EDT in the South Pacific 35 miles south southwest of the Island of Vanuatu at a depth of 21.7 miles. There were no reports of damage or injury and no tsunami was generated. (USGS/NEIC, Pacific, West Coast & Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers)
The USGS reports that a magnitude 7.0 earthquake occurred at Monday, September 08, 2008 at 2:52 EDT in the South Pacific 142 miles north from Santo (Luganville) Vanuatu at a depth of 81.1 miles. There were no reports of damage or injury and no tsunami was generated. (USGS/NEIC)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Monday, September 8, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 2
Initial attack activity: Light (63)
New large fires: 3
Uncontained large fires: 6
Large fires contained: 0
States with large fires: CA, NV, OR, UT and ID.

Disaster Declaration Activity

On Monday, September 08, 2008, the Governor of Louisiana requested an Emergency Declaration as a result of Hurricane Ike. PA (Cat B) Emergency Disaster Declaration to include Direct Federal Assistance statewide. (FEMA HQ)
On Monday, September 08, 2008 the Governor of Louisiana requested the cost-share associated with FEMA's delivery of both Cat "A" and Cat "B" Public Assistance (for debris removal and emergency protective measures, respectively), as well as expenses related to Direct Federal Assistance being provided during the disaster response and early recovery period be adjusted to 100% federal cost-share.
On Monday, September 08, 2008 the Governor of Texas requested an Emergency Declaration as a result of Hurricane Ike for Public Assistance (Category B), including direct Federal assistance, for 88 counties.