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National Situation Update: Monday, September 8, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

South
As Hurricane Ike moves west-northwest over Cuba today and early Tuesday, there will be strong easterly winds and showers to the north into the Florida Keys and south Florida.
Cooler weather will prevail across the Texas Panhandle and northern Oklahoma as a result of strong northerly winds.

Midwest
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop across the Midwest and move toward the Great Lakes today. Wet, windy conditions will prevail from southeast Nebraska and far northeast Kansas across Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Locally heavy rain of one inch or more is possible. Wet weather is expected to continue across Lower Michigan late today and into Tuesday morning.

Northeast
With Hanna no longer a concern, the new week should begin mainly dry before a cold front comes through on Tuesday, bringing rain and thunderstorms.

West
On Monday, isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly in New Mexico, will move across the Four Corners states. Throughout the remainder of the region, sunshine will prevail except for morning low clouds along the California coast.(NOAA, National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Federal / State Response and Recovery for Gustav, Hanna, and Ike

FEMA East Coast Regional Response Coordination Center
This combined RRCC was demobilized at 2:00 p.m. EDT Sunday, September 7. 

FEMA Region I:
Activated at Level III (normal operations). Region I ERT-A has demobilized.

FEMA Region II:
RRCC activated at Level III (normal operations). Region II ERT-A has demobilized.
Puerto Rico, New York, and New Jersey EOCs demobilized.

FEMA Region III:
RRCC activated at Level III, (normal) 12/7 operations. ERT-A is deployed to Raleigh, NC EOC.
Region III reports minimal impact from Tropical Storm Hanna; damage reports consist primarily of downed trees. State EOCs returned to normal operations on Sunday, September 7.There are no unmet needs reported in the Region.

Virginia (Hanna)
The State EOC returned to normal staffing and activation Sunday, September 7. Three confirmed storm-related fatalities (motor vehicle collisions) are attributed to Hanna.

Maryland (Hanna)
The State EOC returned to Level I (normal) activation as of 12:00 p.m. EDT Sunday, September 7. The Governor rescinded the Statewide State of Emergency Declaration for Tropical Storm Hanna as of 12:00 p.m. Sunday, September 7.

FEMA Region IV:
RRCC Level I, 24/7 with all ESFs. Region IV IMAT and ERT-A are deployed to Tallahassee, FL. Incident Response Team and eight Urban Search and Rescue (US&R) Task Forces have been pre-staged at Maxwell AFB, AL; Meridian NAS, MS; Jacksonville, FL and Tallahassee, FL in preparation for Hurricane Ike. Region IV States are readying personnel teams and assets for Hurricane Ike. Region IV has no unmet needs.

Florida
Activated at Level II; (partial activation). One shelter is open with a population of 1,012. (NSS Spot Report 9:00 a.m. September 7) Numerous flood warnings are in effect for rivers across the State.
Florida Preparations for Hurricane Ike:
ERT-A Region IV IMAT, and MERS (IRV, EOV) located in the Florida EOC. EMAC management staff and Logistics specialists have been deployed to Florida. Two Urban Search and Rescue Teams are staged in Jacksonville, FL.

The President signed FEMA-3293-EM-FL authorizing Category B emergency protective measures, including direct Federal assistance, under the Public Assistance program for Monroe County, FL to facilitate preparations for Hurricane Ike. The Florida Governor withdrew a request for Emergency Declaration for Tropical Storm Hanna.

Monroe County EOC is activated at Level One (full activation). Voluntary Evacuations were issued Saturday morning, September 6, for all visitors and non-residents, RV's travel & boat trailers in Monroe County. Special needs and mandatory evacuations in Monroe County began Sunday; both special needs and non-resident evacuations were completed on Sunday, September 7. Evacuations began Sunday, September 7 For the Florida Keys, including Marathon, Islamorada and Monroe County. A C-130 MedEvac transported 28 patients from Key West to Georgia Sunday, September 7. Key West Transit will transport evacuated residents to Florida International University. Selected Contra-routes were activated Sunday, September 7.

Sheltering and feeding operations are supporting evacuations from Monroe County. The Salvation Army (TSA), American Red Cross (ARC) and South Baptist Convention (SBC) are operating feeding units and have units on stand-by to provide assistance as required. The Florida International University (FIU) in Miami is taking evacuees with pets; pets will be transported from FIU to Miami Dade Animal Services Facility and returned after the storm.

American Red Cross (ARC) is moving assets to Orlando for quick relocation to the Gulf States, if needed. Key West Airport (EYW) ceased all operations at 12:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday, September 7. The Key West and Key Largo VA Hospitals closed on Sunday, September 7 and will re-open on Wednesday, September 10.

Mississippi
Activated at Level I (Full Activation). National IMAT EAST is deployed to Jackson, MS. Five shelters are open with a population of 194. (NSS Spot Report 9:00 a.m. September 7) The State is expected to request Public Assistance Preliminary Damage Assessments (PA PDAs) for Hurricane Gustav for 20 counties today; Individual Assistance PDAs are scheduled to be completed today, September 8.

North Carolina:
Activation Level III (partial activation). Numerous flood warnings are in effect for rivers across the State. 46 shelters are open with a population of 1,012.  (NSS Spot Report 9:00 a.m. September 7) The Governor declared a State of Emergency for the pending impacts of Tropical Storm Hanna and Hurricane Ike.

Georgia
Activation Level III (normal operations). FEMA Urban Search and Rescue Teams and MERS support staged in Atlanta, GA in preparation for Hurricane Ike.

Alabama
EOC activated at Level II (partial activation). The JFO for EM-3292 is activated in Montgomery, AL. Joint PDAs for Baldwin and Mobile in Alabama are complete. FCO and Region VIII ERT-A remain operational at the Alabama EOC. All Louisiana residents have been returned with the exception of two hospitalized patients.

Tennessee
Activated at Level III (Partial Activation)

FEMA Region VI:
RRCC is activated Level III. The National IMAT-East is deployed to Jackson, MS. Region VI IMAT is operational at the JFO in Austin, TX. Preliminary Damage Assessments for Individual Assistance in Louisiana are expected to be completed by Friday, September 12. PDAs for Public Assistance were completed Sunday, September 7. A FEMA Incident Support Team and eight Urban Search and & Rescue Task Forces are being pre-staged in Houston, TX and Lafayette, LA in preparation for Hurricane Ike. All general population evacuees have returned to LA, TX, and AR with the exception of 300 medical and special needs evacuees. Coordinating response and recovery operations for Gustav and planning for Hurricane Ike with State and Federal partners.

Louisiana:
Activated at Level I (Full Activation). The Governor issued a declaration of State of Emergency in preparation for Hurricane Ike. 46 shelters were open with a population of 1,012. (NSS Spot Report 9:00 a.m. September 7) Numerous Flood Warnings are in effect for rivers in the state.
Louisiana Recovery from Hurricane Gustav:
All evacuees have returned to Louisiana with the exception of those with medical and special needs. The State reported 29 fatalities attributed to Hurricane Gustav. A Federal-State agreement was signed September 7, allowing for the release of federal funds to assist communities with disaster recovery efforts. The Governor's Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness (GOHSEP) reports 66 school districts remain closed due to damage or lack of power; schools are not expected to open before Tuesday, September 9. A general reopening of State facilities occurred beginning Sunday, September 7.

The Department of Interior's Mineral Management Service (MMS) reports 202 production platforms remain evacuated, equivalent to 28.2% of the 717 manned platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. Personnel from 10 rigs also remain evacuated; equivalent to 8.3 percent of the 121 rigs currently operating in the Gulf. MMS estimated approximately 79.8 percent of oil production and approximately 70.0 percent of natural gas production in the Gulf remains shut-in (safety valves closed below the surface of the ocean).

Individual Assistance Preliminary Damage Assessments are expected to be completed by Friday, September 12. PDAs for Public Assistance PDAs were completed Sunday, September 7. FEMA has been providing basic commodities of water, ice, tarps, and food (MREs). Commodities continue to be distributed by Louisiana National Guard at 56 points of distribution where power outages were most severe.

Texas:
The Texas SEOC is at Level I (Emergency Conditions). All Hurricane Gustav evacuees have returned to Texas with the exception of those with medical and special needs. 29 shelters are open with a population of 2,899 (NSS Spot Report 9:00 a.m. September 7). The JFO for Hurricane Gustav opened Sunday, September 7 in Austin, TX. Region VI IMAT is collocated with the GDEM and JFO in Austin, in a joint response effort for both Hurricane Gustav and Hurricane Ike.
Texas preparations for Hurricane Ike
Hurricane Ike is expected to strike somewhere along the Texas Coast early on Saturday, September 13. The Alamo Area Regional Command (AARC) is currently repositioning, reorganizing, and reconstituting resources deployed during Hurricane Gustav in preparation for Hurricane Ike. Based on lessons learned from Gustav, the number of Medical Special Needs (MSN) evacuees will be higher than previously estimated; evacuation of special needs citizens is scheduled to begin on or about Tuesday, September 9 and be completed the next day. The State of Oklahoma is prepared to shelter 12,500 medical special needs patients from Texas. The State plans to have the State Wide Shelter Network activation complete by Wednesday, September 10. The Governor is activating the Texas Military Forces today, September 8, including 7,500 personnel, six C-130 aircraft, ten UH-60 and 5 Oh-58 helicopters and support crews. American Red Cross (ARC), Salvation Army (SA), and Texas Baptist Men (TBM) are coordinating volunteer organization (VOAD) efforts and assets to respond as needed.

Arkansas:
Arkansas DEM is activated at Level IV (full activation). All Hurricane Gustav evacuees have returned to Arkansas with the exception of those with medical and special needs. The state requested PA PDA assessments to begin Tuesday, September 9.(All FEMA Regions and State EOC Reports)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Hurricane Ike
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the large eye of Hurricane Ike was located on the north coast of eastern Cuba near Cabo Lucretia about 40 miles east-southeast of Camaguey Cuba. Ike is moving toward the west near 15 mph, and a west to west-northwest motion is expected over the next day or two. On this track, the center will move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph, with higher gusts. Ike is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Weakening is likely as Ike moves over eastern and central Cuba during the next day or so. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200 miles. Large swells generated by Ike will affect portions of the southeast United States coast during the next couple of days. These waves could generate dangerous and life-threatening rip currents.

Josephine
The remnants of Josephine, located about 1275 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, continue to produce intermittent and disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for regeneration; however, they are forecast to become a little more conducive for redevelopment in a couple of days. Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Storm Lowell
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was located about 330 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California. Lowell is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph, and a turn toward the northwest with some decrease in forward speed is expected sometime today. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph, with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast sometime today. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles from the center.

Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity. (NOAA, HPC,  National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

The National Wildfire Preparedness Level is 2. National Fire Activity as of Sunday, September 7 was light, with 62 fires and two new large fires reported. There are four uncontained large fires in California, Nevada, Oregon, and Utah. Fire Weather: Warm and dry across much of the West with light showers possible in Montana and Wyoming as a storm system moves down from the north.  (National Interagency Coordination Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

On Sunday, September 7, 2008, the President signed Emergency Declaration FEMA-3293-EM for the State of Florida for Hurricane Ike for the incident period September 5, 2008, and continuing. Specifically, the declaration authorizes FEMA to provide emergency protective measures (Category B) including direct Federal assistance under the Public Assistance program at 75 percent funding. This assistance is for Monroe County. Additional designations may be made at a later date after further evaluation. (FEMA HQ)