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National Situation Update: Friday, September 5, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

South
Tropical Storm Hanna will likely make landfall in the Carolinas tonight as a strong tropical storm or maybe a minimal hurricane. As a result of this system, heavy flash-flooding rain, strong winds, rough surf, beach erosion and some coastal flooding will occur from South Carolina northward. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast over parts of Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi and southeast Louisiana today and across the Appalachians on Saturday.
Northeast
Isolated thunderstorms are expected over the western sections of New York and Pennsylvania. A cold front moving into western New York, western Pennsylvania and West Virginia will cause showers. On Saturday Hanna is forecast to move up the East Coast, resulting in local flooding rain from Virginia to southeastern New York, and then into southern and central New England. Winds will be strongest near the Atlantic coast, reaching tropical storm strength.
Midwest
Showers and thunderstorms are likely in the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and the Central Plains with a few showers extending northward into parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota.
West
A few mountain thunderstorms are forecast from Wyoming to New Mexico, and temperatures will be quite cool in Montana and Wyoming. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above average in California and adjacent parts of Oregon, Nevada and Arizona, but 5 to 20 degrees below average across Montana, Wyoming, eastern Idaho, northern Utah and Colorado.  (NOAA, National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Remnant Low Gustav

At 05:00 pm EDT on September 4, 2008 the National Hurricane Center issued its final advisory on the remnant low of Tropical Depression Gustav, located north northeast of Saint Louis Missouri. The low was moving northeast at 28 mph; maximum sustained winds were near 15 mph with higher gusts. This northeastward motion was expected through the night, and an increase in forward speed is expected as it moves into the great lakes this Friday morning. Flood warnings are in effect for parts of Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, extreme eastern Oklahoma, extreme southeastern Kansas, and much of Missouri.

Federal / State Actions

FEMA Region IV:
RRCC is activated at Level I, 24/7 with all ESFs. Region IV IMAT deployed to Gulfport, Mississippi
Region IV ERT-A is deployed to AL EOC in Clanton, Alabama. Florida, Alabama and Texas staff are coordinating EMAC activities in Region IV. Region IV has no unmet needs.

Mississippi:
The Mississippi State EOC is activated at Level I (full activation). Power outages: 35,815 as of Thursday afternoon. Most outages will be restored by Friday. (Entergy Power, Region IV) ARC and partner shelters: 30 with 2,298 occupants.(ARC) PA and IA PDAs are ongoing.

Alabama:
The Alabama EOC is activated at Level III (partial activation). ARC and partner shelters: 45 shelters with 9,684 occupants.(ARC) Power outages: 56,155 as of Thursday afternoon.

Georgia:
EOC is now activated at Level II (partial activation). ARC and partner shelters: 4 shelters with 221 occupants.(ARC)

Kentucky:
EOC is activated at Level I (normal operations). Kentucky is providing ambulances and medical teams to Louisiana. (SLB) ARC and partner shelters: 1 shelter with 1,432 occupants.(ARC)

Tennessee:
Tennessee EOC is activated at Level III (Full Activation 24 hrs). ARC and partner shelters: 37 shelters with 5,596 occupants.(ARC) FEMA/Amtrak re-entry plan approved for execution.

FEMA Region VI:
RRCC is operating at Level II, providing 24/7 coverage and has activated all ESFs. National IMAT EAST is deployed to JFO in Baton Rouge, LA. Region VI IMAT is operational at Texas SOC. Ten IA-PDA teams will be shared between Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. Five PA PDA teams have been identified in Louisiana; PDA teams are on standby for Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Texas.

Louisiana:
GOHSEP activated at Level I. ARC and partner shelters: 49 shelters with 16,583 occupants. (ARC) Power outages: 896,755 as of Thursday afternoon. Anticipate air and rail operations for ingress of evacuees to commence on Saturday
Baton Rouge, LA, September 3, 2008 -- FEMA employees in the Louisiana EOC

Texas:
Texas State Operations Center (SOC) is at Level III (Increased Readiness Condition). IOF operational in Austin, TX. State lifted evacuation orders and self-evacuees are returning home. Texas evacuees began to return today. 11 shelters are open with 464 evacuees.

Arkansas:
DEM Level IV (Full activation) expecting evacuees. ARC and partner shelters: 44 shelters with 1,542 occupants.(ARC)

Oklahoma:
EOC activated Level I (Full Activation). Flooding has been reported along two rivers on Oklahoma. Increased amount of flooding is anticipated for the next six days as a result of Gustav. Three Preliminary Damage Assessment (PDA) Teams are on stand-by. ARC and partner shelters: 2 shelters with 622 occupants.(ARC)

Tropical Storm Hanna

At 2:00 a.m. EDT the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was about 55 miles east of Great Abaco Island and about 490 miles south of Wilmington North Carolina. Hanna is moving toward the northwest near 18 mph. A gradual turn to the north with a gradual increase in forward speed later today. On the forecast track, the center of Hanna will clear the northwestern Bahamas early today, and will be approaching the southeast coast of the United States later today. However, rains and winds associated with Hanna will reach the coast well in advance of the center. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph, with higher gusts. Only slight strengthening is forecast prior to landfall, although it is still possible for Hanna to become a hurricane. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles mainly to the north and east of the center.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are possible from the Georgia coast southward to the central Florida coast. Very heavy rainfall amounts are likely to spread rapidly northward into the mid Atlantic states and New England from Friday night into Saturday and may result in flooding. (NOAA, HPC,  National Hurricane Center)

Federal / State Preparations

Regions I, II, and III have combined staff into one dedicated Level I "East Coast RRCC" in order to coordinate Hurricane Hanna operations along the East Coast.
FEMA Region I:
Level III. Monitoring storms and considering a Level I activation.
FEMA Region II:
RRCC activated to Level II on Thursday. The Region II ERT-A has deployed to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. A review of all EMAC resources for Regions I, II, and III is ongoing. East Coast RRCC has been in close communications with regional State EOCs. Coordinating with Region II State Operations daily to discuss potential logistics requirements including commodities and Federal support contracts in anticipation of Hurricanes Hanna and Ike. At this time there are no unmet needs or concerns.

Puerto Rico:
Puerto Rico Emergency Management Agency's EOC is partially activated with selective ESFs. Region II Caribbean Area Division (CAD) is monitoring the weather situation and is maintaining contact with PREMA and NWS. The pre-designated FCO for PR conducted a preparatory meeting with the CAD ERT-A team. A FEMA LNO is at the PREMA EOC.

FEMA Region III:
RRCC Level I (East Coast RRCC). Maintaining Emergency Management Assistance Compact (EMAC) support for Gustav, but response has shifted to TS Hanna.Working with VA to pre-position commodities if requested (generators, sandbags, POD requests anticipated). Posturing National Logistics Staging Area (NLSA) team to deploy to Chesterfield County Airport, VA, which can accommodate 100 trailers. Planning for Ft AP Hill and Fort Pickett, VA as backup NLSA.
Virginia:
Declared a State of Emergency. EOC will be 24/7 Friday and will be fully staffed Saturday morning. ERT-A arrived in Richmond EOC today. No impact from NC coastal evacuations. Requesting ESF-3 rep to deploy to EOC.
District of Columbia:
Activating EOC at 1200 hours Friday. Requested SLO to be operational on Friday.
Maryland
The State of Maryland Emergency Operations Center has reported that a (precautionary) limited State of Emergency has been signed by the Governor for nine Eastern Shore Counties, effective immediately.
Delaware
No concerns, no requests for federal assistance. Will partially activate the EOC Friday evening.
Pennsylvania:
Activating an extra watch staff Saturday-Sunday. No SLO or requests for federal assistance.
West Virginia:
Monitoring, especially east of the Appalachian Ridge, where the biggest concern is flash flooding in Morgan, Berks, and Jefferson counties.

FEMA Region IV:
RRCC Level I, 24/7. Region IV IMAT is deployed to Gulfport, Mississippi. ERT-A status: Deployed to AL EOC (Region III & VIII); Deployed to NC EOC (Region III & IV); Deployed to SC EOC (Region I, IV & VIII); Deployed to GA EOC (Region IV); Deployed to FL EOC (FL JFO personnel).
Florida:
EOC is at Level 2, 12/7 operations for Gustav, preparing for Hanna. Closely monitoring river and Lake Okeechobee levels. Based on the current storm track, FL is not expecting to be issuing evacuation orders. ARC and partner shelters: 3 shelters open, sheltering 458 evacuees.
Georgia:
Activated at Level II, 24/7; possibly activating to Level 1 in anticipation of TS Hanna. No evacuation orders expected (voluntary or mandatory). The pre-designated FCO and ERT-A are on site at the state EOC. ARC and partner shelters: 4 shelters open, sheltering 221 evacuees.
South Carolina:
Activated at Level I  (Full Activation) 24/7. The pre-designated FCO and ERT-A are on site at the state EOC. The Governor issued a voluntary evacuation order Thursday for Horry and Georgetown counties.
North Carolina:
EOC is activated at Level II (Full Activation with ESFs, FRP and ERT-A) Pre-designated FCO and ERT-A on site at state EOC. Governor Easley signed a State of Emergency (SOE) for both Tropical Storm Hanna and Hurricane Ike. Brunswick and New Hanover (Wilmington) Counties have issued voluntary evacuation orders and are opening public shelters for evacuees. Hyde County has decided not to evacuate Ocracoke Island. (FEMA Regions I, II, III and State EOC Reports)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Tropical Storm Hanna and the remnant low of Tropical Depression Gustav are discussed above.

Hurricane Ike
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the eye of Hurricane Ike was located near about 460 miles north of the Leeward Islands and about 660 miles east-northeast of Grand Turk Island. Ike is moving toward the west near 15 mph. A slight turn toward the west-southwest is forecast tonight or early on Saturday, with a turn back to the west expected by Sunday. On this track Ike could be near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph, with higher gusts. Ike is a dangerous Category Three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or two, but Ike is still forecast to be a major hurricane in a couple of days. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles.

Tropical Storm Josephine
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Josephine was located about 665 miles west of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands. Josephine is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph. and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph, with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles from the center.

Eastern Pacific:
A large area of showers and thunderstorms extend from just south of Manzanillo Mexico southward into the eastern Pacific Ocean for a few hundred miles.  Development, if any, is expected to be slow to occur due to strong upper-level winds. Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the Next 48 hrs.

Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity. (NOAA, HPC,  National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Thursday, September 4, 2008: National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 2
Initial attack activity was light yesterday and no new large fires were reported. One large fire was contained, and there are 7 uncontained large fires in the states of TX, CA, ID, NV, OR, AND UT.
Fire Weather: Northern California and southwest Oregon were warm and dry with gusty north to northeast winds. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 11:00 a.m. PDT for the northern Sacramento Valley and surrounding foothills as well as the sierra west slope portions of the Lassen and Plumas National forests. Otherwise, most of the West is dry and mild except for showers over Montana and Wyoming. (National Interagency Fire Center/Coordination Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Louisiana: Amendment #1 to FEMA-1786-DR, effective September 4, 2008, amends the Major Disaster Declaration, dated September 2, 2008, to include two additional parishes (St. Tammany and Tangipahoa) for Individual Assistance for damages due to Hurricane Gustav that began September 1 and continuing.

Mississippi: On September 04, 2008 the Governor of Mississippi submitted a revised request for a major disaster declaration for the State of Mississippi as a result of Hurricane Gustav, beginning September 1, 2008, and continuing. The Governor is specifically requesting Individual Assistance for 16 counties and Hazard Mitigation statewide. Originally the Governor asked for the Individuals and Households Program, the Disaster Food Stamp Program, disaster loans for 16 counties; PA Category A for 3 coastal counties and Hazard Mitigation statewide.  (FEMA HQ)