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National Situation Update: Wednesday, November 30, 2005

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Winter Weather Updates

A powerful winter storm system moved into the Central and Northern Plains Sunday November 27th.  Heavy snowfall with blizzard conditions prevailed from Sunday into Tuesday the 29th.  Areas affected by the storm include eastern Colorado, northwest Kansas, central Nebraska, central and eastern South Dakota, and southeastern North Dakota.

Impacts:

Interstates I-70, I-80, I-90, I-94 and I-29 were closed for some time during the event.  As of Tuesday afternoon, most major roads are now open.

In South Dakota, a prolonged period of freezing rain preceded major snowfall in central and eastern parts of the state.  From 1 to 3 inches of ice caused a multitude of problems in the area. 

Between 50,000 and 60,000 people have lost power due to broken power lines weighed down with ice and snapped tree limbs.
 
Fifty three (53) shelters have been opened within the affected areas. A search team is going door to door in Yankton County to check on people. Dakota Energy is hoping to have power restored to this area by tonight.

Five hospitals are operating on back-up emergency power and heat. Ten nursing homes are operating on back-up emergency power and heat. One nursing home in Huron is operating on back-up generator for power but they have no heat. Electric companies from neighboring states are on their way to provide assistance.

There are a few stranded vehicles. Cell phones are still down. Rolling blackouts will occur and residents are being asked to conserve energy. The Governor has declared a state of Emergency.

The Clay County, Missouri Emergency Management Division is conducting damage assessments for a consolidated report on Lawson, Excelsior Springs and the unincorporated county.

One police officer received minor injuries when a tree limb went through the windshield of her patrol car in Weston.  A daycare center was damaged by the storm, however was unoccupied at the time.  Debris and tree damage is being handled by local government.  Platte City continues to have some power outages in the area.

The National Weather Service confirmed an F1 tornado strike from Excelsior Springs to Lawson, and an F1 tornado from Ozark County into Howell County.

FEMA Region VII RRCC is currently monitoring the situation with the State of Missouri at this time.  The National Weather Service is assessing areas in MO today to determine tornado or damaging wind categories.  (FEMA Region VII, Region VIII, NOAA NWS)

New York Dam Update

According to NY SEMO, at present level (below 1136') the Gilbao Dam is fine; the major concern is if the water level rises to 1134-1136' NY SEMO, and county Emergency Managers will be doing more intense monitoring of the situation.

According to the National Weather Service, the new forecast runs are in and it's good news. The forecasted crest is now projected to crest Wednesday afternoon at water level 1131.5'. This is 6 inches below flood stage of 1132'.

The area near the dam is expecting 1-2 inches of rain with the storm with areas of 3 inches possible. This will produce some minor to moderate flooding on streams and rivers in the area.

DHS has deployed our Dam SME to NJ to meet with NYC officials. NYC HAS NOT requested Federal assistance.

DHS continues to monitor to the situation and is developing an analysis of potential cascading effects.Information will be updated by the IMD NLT 0400 hours 11/30. (FEMA Region II, DHS NOAA Desk)

National Forecast

Northeast:  A slow-moving cold front will drag eastward across New England resulting in some one- to two-inch rains in eastern New England. Lesser amounts will dampen western New England. Farther south, an early-morning shower or two will rapidly take leave of Tidewater Virginia. Well behind the front, a few flurries or sprinkles are expected to be scattered over interior New York and northwest Pennsylvania. High temperatures are forecast to range from the 30s in the western reaches of New York and Pennsylvania to the low 60s in southeast Virginia. Overall, readings in most of the region will be in the 40s and 50s.

Midwest: Light snow or flurries will dot the northern Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, but nothing really significant is anticipated. The best bet for a few inches would appear to be in eastern South Dakota and southwest Minnesota. High temperatures will be on the cold side for late November ranging from the teens in North Dakota and northwest Minnesota to the 50s in southern Kansas and southwest Missouri.

West: Scattered rain and mountain snow showers will dot the Pacific Northwest, Montana, Wyoming and the Colorado Rockies today, but nothing heavy is anticipated. That will change on Thursday, however, as a powerful ocean storm attacks the Pacific Northwest and northern California. In the meantime, look for high temperatures to range from the teens in northern Montana and northwest Wyoming to the 70s in southeast California and southwest Arizona. Maxima in the 20s and 30s will prevail in the Great Basin while the Sacramento Valley reaches the 50s and the San Joaquin Valley, the 60s.

South: Except for a chance of an early-morning shower or thunderstorm in south Florida, dry weather will dominate the South with sunshine widespread in the Deep South. Temperatures will be generally close to seasonal norms except in Texas and Oklahoma where they'll be above late November means. Highs will range from the 40s in northern Tennessee to the 70s in parts of Texas and the southern half of Florida. The Keys could see maxima near 80. (NWS, Media Sources)

Governor Tours Region; Seven Counties Have Disaster Declarations

Governor Mike Huckabee on Tuesday visited portions of Arkansas hard-hit by tornadoes and high winds and credited God and tornado sirens for saving lives.

Only one death was reported statewide after Sunday night's storms _ a motorist killed on Interstate 40 near Sardis in Conway County. The Governor toured portions of Garland, Perry and Conway counties by helicopter and on the ground. Those counties plus Cleburne, Fulton, Pike and Van Buren counties declared disasters locally.

Meteorologists confirmed that at least four tornadoes touched down Sunday. Additional surveys were being conducted Tuesday and the number of confirmed tornadoes may rise. The twister that hit Sardis had winds estimated at 170 mph (Media Sources)

Hurricane Season Finally Ending

The 2005 season obliterated many long-standing records:

• In 154 years of record-keeping, this year had the most named storms (26, including Tropical Storm Epsilon, which formed Tuesday), the most hurricanes (13), the highest number of major hurricanes hitting the U.S. (4), and the most top-scale Category 5 hurricanes (3).
• Katrina was the deadliest U.S. hurricane since 1928 (more than 1,300 dead) and replaced 1992's Andrew as the most expensive one on record ($34.4 billion in insured losses).
• Total insured losses from hurricanes this year were put at $47.2 billion, above the previous record of $22.9 billion set last year when four hurricanes also hit the U.S., according to risk-analysis firm ISO.
• Wilma was briefly the most intense Atlantic hurricane on record in terms of minimum central pressure (882 millibars). It also was the fastest-strengthening storm on record — its top sustained winds increased 105 mph in 24 hours in the Caribbean.
• Forecasters exhausted their list of 21 proper names (Arlene, Bret, Cindy and so on) and had to use the Greek alphabet to name storms for the first time. (NWS, Media Sources)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level remains at 1 - the lowest state of readiness.

The Flat Rock Complex, Oklahoma met the criteria for approval of a Fire Management Assistance Grant by FEMA-HQ at 17:53 CST November 29, 2005.  It designation number is FEMA-2587-FM-OK. (Located in Mayes County. Town of Flat Rock, population of 500 threatened, 10,000 acres,and 12 homes destroyed and another 150 homes are threatened.)  (USFS, NICC, Texas State Operations Center, Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management)

Tropical Activity

At 4  am EST, the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was located about 725 miles east of Bermuda.
Epsilon is moving toward the west near 7 mph and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next 24 hours.

Although epsilon is not expected to directly affect Bermuda, large ocean swells that are being generated well to the northwest of Epsilon will move southwestward and may produce dangerous surf conditions around the island during the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph. with higher Gusts.  Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 Hours.  Estimated minimum central pressure is  993 mb (29.32 inches).

There is no tropical storm formation expected in the Pacific Ocean or the Indian Ocean. (National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, media sources)

Earthquake Activity

There was no significant earthquake activity. (USGS, NOAA West Coast Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity. (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity. (FEMA HQ)