National Situation Update: Thursday, November 17, 2005

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Forecast

Fronts in the Nation: A cold front extends southward across New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, western Virginia, western North Carolina, western South Carolina, western Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. A warm front stretches eastward across northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and into Maine. A stationary front lies across central Montana, eastern Wyoming, and into northern Colorado.

South: Fall is now in full swing across the South following the passage of a strong cold front that brought severe weather to the Midwest yesterday and this morning and that is currently ushering in plenty of frigid Canadian air. Thursday morning will be see the coldest temperatures of the season across the region, as is denoted by widespread area of frost/freeze advisories from south Texas to central Georgia. Morning lows in the 20s are forecasted as far south as College Station, TX and Jackson, MS. A bright sun will help little during the day as 40s across the Tennessee Valley and mere 50s along the central Gulf Coast are all Thursday’s highs will muster. Outside of a few easterlies-driven showers across the east coast of Florida late Thursday, the region will be precipitation-free.

Northeast: After a prolonged period of above-average temperatures, and little signs of fall outside of the leaves changing, the Northeast will return to more traditional and seasonable conditions Thursday. Wednesday night will be marked by showers and thunderstorms, some with the potential for damaging winds especially along the I-95 corridor in advance of a sweeping cold front that will leave the region very cold and still windy as high temperatures will drop close to 30 degrees from Wednesday to Thursday. Highs in the major cities from Washington to Portland, ME will steadily drop throughout the overnight hours and into Thursday. Expect “highs” in the 40s up and down the I-95 corridor. Highs across Appalachia towards the lakes will be in the 30s with lake-effect snow off of Ontario and Erie forecasted to accumulate to one to three inches in the highest prone areas.

Midwest: With the frontal system that ushered in cold and snow pushing through the Northeast, the Midwest can expect a significant rebound across the Region by week’s end. From the Rockies to the Ohio Valley, temperatures Wednesday ran some 10 to 20 degrees colder than daily averages. With a ridge building in from the West, temperatures will begin to warm, especially across the Plains. By Thursday, high from Salt Lake City to Topeka will run near average. By Friday, temperatures from across the entire Midwest will run at or above average, including the High Plains and Northern Rockies which will see high temperatures reaching the 50s. Aside from a few flurries lingering across the Dakotas and lingering lake-effect snow off of Superior and Michigan, the region is quiet precipitation-wise, and should be at least until Saturday when the next system rolls down through the Upper Midwest.

West: High pressure is in control across the Southwest and Pacific Coast. Although sunny skies and warm temperatures will prevail over most of the region, a building ridge will help enhance and already dicey fire danger for Southern California. A mild Santa Ana wind even will continue on into Thursday.

The expectation for a prolonged warm, dry period does not spell any relief as the danger will increase each day. High pressure will also stifle any atmospheric mixing. For this reason there are air stagnation warnings across the Northwest, including Seattle and Portland, OR, which will have increasingly poor air quality through the weekend. As this ridge slides eastward to include the entire region, temperatures will hold steady or rise slightly every day through Saturday. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS and Various Commercial Sources)

Severe Midwest Storms

The intense line of storms that tore through Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky are being blamed for at least one death. A Kentucky Division of Emergency Management official reports one person was killed when a mobile home overturned and caught fire in western Kentucky.

The collision of the cold front and warm air pushing up from the south produced severe thunderstorms and tornadoes from the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes and the resulting squall lines moved across the Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon bringing severe weather to an area from Louisiana through Illinois and West Virginia. At least 35 reports of tornadoes were received (media reports up to 40).
So far, there have been 98 reports of wind damage and 35 reports of large hail and a significant number of homes and other buildings have been reported destroyed or damaged in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, and Missouri.

In Madisonville, Kentucky, 20 or 30 buildings, most of them homes, were severely damaged, and dozens of other homes and buildings sustained moderate damage. One semi was overturned near Newton, Jasper County, Illinois and one semi was blown off the road near Van Buren, Grant County, Indiana. Widespread severe thunderstorm outflow winds created numerous power outages and structural damage to carports and roofs across western Tennessee, and northern Mississippi and torrential rains accompanied the storm system, with as much as 5 to 10 inches of rain from Missouri and Tennessee through Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, and Ohio.

Flooding in Henderson, Henderson County, Kentucky and in Wolf Lake, Union County, Illinois has prompted some evacuations. Evacuations were also required in Union County, IL; where several homes and businesses flooded Tuesday afternoon and evening in Boonville, IN; and a motorist was stranded in high water in Fort Wayne, IN

State Status
Kentucky: An Executive Order declaring a State of Emergency has been issued by the Governor. The Kentucky Emergency Operations Center is activated at Level 3 (fully activated with all State agencies) on 24-hour operations. A FEMA Response Liaison has reported to the Kentucky EOC as requested.

Marshall and Hopkins Counties were the most severely impacted. Incident Command Posts have been established in both counties. Marshall, Hopkins, Union and Henderson (City of Henderson) Counties have issued local proclamations of emergencies. Search and rescue operations continue; local governments have requested search dogs. One fatality has been confirmed in Marshall County.

Initial assessment figures for Hopkins County (Madisonville area) are:

Residences: 120 Destroyed; 600 uninhabitable; 400 damaged but habitable.
Approximately 30 to 50 homes destroyed in Country Clubhouse Estates;
Benton - 15 mobile homes damaged.
Utilities: Water system temporarily out of service; widespread power interruptions; and natural gas leaks.
Hazards: Leaking fuel tanks (clean up ongoing); other hazmat releases; security issues, utility poles.
Search and rescue operations are continuing with the KY National Guard on site providing security support.
In Hopkins County approximately 7,300 customers are without power; majority is expected to be back on-line by November 17, 2005.
Major power outages in Madisonville.
Marshall County has local dial only. Commercial telecommunications are functionally intermittent or non-functional.
Bell South reported a fiber facility in the Madisonville area sustained damages.
Two shelters were opened, housing approximately 14 individuals.
The American Red Cross has set up feeding sites in the area.
Several road closings have been reported throughout the affected area. Daviess, McLean, and Grapevine area report minor damages to trees and power lines.

Minor damages have also been reported in Todd, Union, Daviess, Logan, Muhlenberg, Calloway, Christian, and McLean Counties. Numerous injuries (approximately 62) have been reported throughout the impacted areas, with several being hospitalized. The KY National Guard has been activated. Approximately 100 soldiers are currently on duty in the affected area with others on standby. The Governor, the Adjutant General, the Kentucky Emergency Management Assistant Director, and other staff visited the impacted areas. Priorities are life safety issues, search and rescue, mass care, security, and damage assessment.

Mississippi: The State EOC has not been activated for this event. There have been no reports of damage at this time.

Tennessee: The State EOC did not activate for this event. A flyover was conducted in the damaged areas in western and middle Tennessee this morning. The eastern region also sustained some storm damage.
The State is evaluating information to see if a joint FEMA-State damage assessment should be requested. The State has received reports of one major and numerous minor injuries.

With the exception of Kentucky, the States have received no requests for assistance from the local governments at this time and none have requested any Federal assistance. All local needs are being met at this time. State and local damage assessments are ongoing. The statewide damage assessments should be completed and the information evaluated by November 17, 2005.

The Regional Response Coordination Center (RRCC) in Thomasville, GA remains activated at Level 3. Hours of operations are 7:00 AM to 7:00 PM until further notice and contact with all affected states is being maintained. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS and SPC, FEMA Regions IV and V, and State and Commonwealth Emergency Operations Centers)

Indiana: Severe Weather and Tornadoes

A National Weather Service Storm Survey Team has confirmed an F1 tornado in Grant County, Indiana just southwest of the town of Van Buren. The damage path was about 3 miles long and 50 yards wide.

The tornado touched down just southwest of the intersection of county roads 200N and 600E and lifted near the intersection of county roads 400N and 800E.

Brown County: 4 homes damaged.
Daviess County:

64 homes destroyed, 45-70 homes with moderate damage (80-90% are Amish/Mennonite farms).
2 1-room school houses destroyed.
1 church destroyed.
20-24 businesses destroyed (3 of these are major employers).
Approximately 1,000 animals (cows/horses) killed or destroyed.
High-tension power lines down.
Injuries: 1 serious, 15-30 minor.
A County Emergency has been declared

Martin County:

Reports of homes damaged north of Loogootee (650E/400N).
Bramble/Ragglesville area has damage to several houses and 4 homes destroyed. Loogootee reporting 1 building destroyed.
Martin Co shelter had 4 families there until midnight
A County Emergency has been declared

Shelby County:

Shelby County is reporting scattered damage throughout the county around Geneva and Waldron. 3 homes received damage, one minor injury was reported
6 reported locations of confirmed/unconfirmed touchdowns. Two injuries were reported
Reports of 3 people missing from mobile homes. The local EMA is confirming
16 structures damaged, with 4 destroyed.
The Salvation Army opened a shelter but had no occupants and is on scene providing assistance to the responders.

Warrick County:

Warrick County Sheriff reports that heavy rains have caused wide-spread flooding in Boonville and Newburgh due to storm run off and sewer back up.
No number of homes, but some rescue operations are underway. Water depths vary from a few inches to waste deep.
Reports that they have approx 20-30 homes with flood damage and a rough estimate of 50 total structures (homes and businesses) involved in Boonville.

Salvation Army- reported that they are sending a feeding unit from Indianapolis area to affected area in Martin/Daviess County. Red Cross - opening shelter at a community center on US 50 between Loogootee and Shoals in Martin County. Feeding will be provided at the shelter. Red Cross local chapter reported sheltering will be provided by local hotel in Montgomery and will not open a shelter. Mass feeding will be provided in the affected area. Chapter reports 12 or more homes affected but will not be able to do detailed damage report until morning. The State has indicated that a request for a Joint Federal State PDA will be coming in the near future. (FEMA Region V and Indiana Department of Homeland Security and the National; Weather Service)

Heavy Rain, Flooding In Central US

Thunderstorms with torrential rains accompanied the storm system that spawned tornadoes, hail, and high winds over at least six states in the Midwest. As much as 5 to 10 inches of rain has fallen from Missouri and Tennessee through Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, and Ohio. Numerous roads were closed, widespread flash and urban flooding, and several rivers in Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana with minor flooding from the runoff. Widespread flooding is reported near Henderson, KY with some roads under several feet of water from 6 to 10 inches of rain. Evacuations also required in Union County, IL; several homes and businesses flooded Tuesday afternoon and evening in Boonville, IN; and a motorist was stranded in high water in Fort Wayne, IN. The same potent storm system pushed eastward, with widespread moderate and some isolated heavy precipitation from Virginia into Maine. The system is expected to continue moving north-northeast across New England and the Canadian Maritimes before dissipating over the Gulf of Newfoundland over the weekend.

National Weather Service Offices issued flood warnings and/or statements during the past 24 hours for locations including (in alphabetical order):

Illinois: Clark, Clay, Crawford, Cumberland, Edwards, Effingham, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton, Hardin, Jackson, Jasper, Johnson, Lawrence, Pope, Richland, Saline, Union, Wabash, White and Williamson Counties
Indiana: Allen, Bartholomew, Boone, Brown, Clark, Clay, Crawford, Daviess, Decatur, Delaware, Dubois, Floyd, Gibson, Greene, Hamilton, Hancock, Harrison, Hendricks, Henry, Jackson, Jennings, Johnson, Knox, Lawrence, Madison, Marion, Martin, Monroe, Morgan, Orange, Owen, Perry, Posey, Putnam, Randolph, Rush, Shelby, Spencer, Sullivan, Switzerland, Tipton, Vanderburgh, Vigo and Warrick Counties
Kentucky: Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Henderson, Kenton, Marshall and Union Counties
Missouri: Bollinger, Cape Girardeau, Douglas, Greene, Howell, Iron, Madison, Oregon, Ozark, Perry, Reynolds, Shannon, Taney, Texas, Wayne and Wright Counties
Ohio: Clermont, Hamilton, Holmes and Knox Counties
Tennessee: Madison, Marion and Tipton Counties
Texas: Nueces and San Patricio Counties

All of these advisories, warnings, and watches were lifted by mid-afternoon, Wednesday, November 16, 2005.

Rivers or streams were reported either above flood stage or expected to rise above flood stage for locations including (in alphabetical order):

Florida: the St. Johns River
Illinois: the Big Muddy and Little Wabash Rivers
Indiana: the East Fork White, Muscatatuck and White Rivers
Missouri: the Black and St. Francis Rivers

Water levels returned to normal by mid-afternoon, Wednesday, November 16, 2005 and only two locations, one in Missouri and one in Indiana, are current running slightly over flood stage. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS/HPC)

Seasonably Colder Weather

The line of storms that tore through the Southeast and Midwest on Tuesday will move into and through the Northeast through Thursday. Strong winds will redevelop this evening along a line from the Carolinas to New England before the bulk of the energy from the storm moves into Eastern Canada over the weekend. Consequently, there is the potential for wind damage in the major cities along the I-95 corridor. While tornadoes are less likely to occur, the collision of the unusually warm air with the cold air behind the front could produce thunderstorm activity that could spawn hail. Behind the front, lake-effect snow showers will develop in the lee of the Great Lakes as cold air moves across the warm lake waters. Several inches of snow is forecast by Thursday morning for the usual lake-effect areas.
The gusty winds accompanying the storm front could cause blowing and drifting of the snow, leading to hazardous winter driving conditions. The cold air will flow into the Northeast once the cold front moves offshore Thursday, resulting in daytime temperatures in the 30s and 40s and there is the likelihood of snow flurries across the mountain areas and the Great Lakes and wind will make it feel much colder.

A cold Canadian air-mass will spread southward the next couple of days and, as a result, temperatures are expected to fall to around the freezing mark tonight for 1 to 3 hours, generally along and north of the I-10 and east of the I-35 corridor. As a result, the first freeze in the South, south of the Ohio River, of the season is expected Thursday night as Arctic air moves into the region tonight through Friday. Canadian high pressure will continue to build into the mid-South today with much colder temperatures filtering across the Region. As the high pressure system moves closer to the area tonight, winds will begin to weaken and with clear skies and temperatures should drop well into the 20s area-wide. This will allow for a hard freeze and an end to this years growing season in most areas. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS and Various Commercial Sources)

Santa Ana Winds

Strong Santa Ana winds buffeted parts of Southern California, specifically the canyons and hills surrounding Los Angeles, Wednesday as the region remains under a Red Flag Warning, signifying a heightened wildfire danger. High winds, low humidity, and unseasonably warm temperatures prompted the National Weather Service to issue the warning Tuesday. It was to expire at 1800 Thursday November 17, but authorities extended the warning until 1800 Saturday in Los Angeles and Orange counties. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS/SPC and DHS/NICC)

Small quake hits northwest of San Francisco

Two small earthquakes hit Lake County in Northern California early Thursday, but there were no immediate reports of damage or injuries, a sheriff's official said.

The magnitude-3.5 and -4.1 temblors struck between at 3:55 a.m. EST and 3:56 a.m. EST (12:55 a.m. and 12:56 a.m. PST), about 11 miles southeast of Kelseyville, according to a preliminary report by the U.S. Geological Survey. Kelseyville is a city of 3,000 people about 90 miles northwest of San Francisco.

The quake occurred near a location called The Geysers, according to the USGS. The geologically active area, home to geothermal plants, is hit by many small quakes a year. In fact, the area experienced five additional quakes, all less than magnitude-3.0, over the past 24 hours. (USDOI/USGS and Various Media Sources)

Tropical Activity

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Depression 27 has been declared a tropical wave. The westerly shear failed to weaken enough over the feature. As a result, the system did not have enough lower-level and upper-level circulation to remain a coherent system. Satellite images show a mostly strung out cloud mass associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression 27. Redevelopment is not expected.

Another feature that has become more of a concern is located just east of Nicaragua. This low pressure area has a cyclonic mid- and upper-level circulation around a very broad area of low pressure around 1006 mb in pressure centered close to 12 north and 80 west and satellite images Wednesday afternoon suggest this feature is attempting to become better organized.

Although it is possible that another tropical depression will develop within the next 24-to-36 hours, part of the cloud circulation is already over Nicaragua and Honduras and this might prevent the system from becoming better developed. Long range computer output takes this system into Central America before a deep upper-level trough moves into the southeastern US Sunday forcing the remnants of this system northeastward into Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola early next week.

This system will create heavy rainfall over parts of Nicaragua and Honduras which could lead to flooding and life threatening mudslides over the more mountainous areas of both countries. Elsewhere in the tropics, the overall pattern does not feature any other systems that could become late-season organized tropical systems in the near future.

For the Eastern North Pacific East of 140 West: Tropical storm formation is not expected through Thursday.

For the Central North Pacific between 140 West and 180: No tropical cyclones are expected through Friday morning.

For the Western and Southern Pacific and Indian Oceans: Tropical Storm (TS) 24W (BOLAVEN), located approximately 515 nautical miles east of Manila, Philippines, is tracking westward at 5 knots over the Philippine Sea, near 14.4 degrees north and 130.2 degrees east. Winds were sustained around 68 mph with movement toward the north-northeast at 6 mph. A northwesterly track and additional strengthening is expected over the next couple of days.

The storm is expected to make a turn due west and head toward Luzon this weekend. It poses no threat to US territories or interest. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS/NHC, JWTC, and Various Commercial Sources)

Earthquake Activity

Two micro earthquakes occurred at 00:43:19Z and 01:10:09Z on Thursday, November 17, 2005. The magnitude 2.6 and 2.7 events respectively have been located in Island of Hawaii, Hawaii approximately 200 miles southeast from Honolulu, HI. There were no reports of injuries or damages.
Two small earthquakes hit Lake County in Northern California early Thursday, but there were no immediate reports of damage or injuries, a sheriff's official said. The magnitude-3.5 and -4.1 temblors struck between at 3:55 a.m. EST and 3:56 a.m. EST (12:55 a.m. and 12:56 a.m. PST), about 11 miles southeast of Kelseyville, according to a preliminary report by the U.S. Geological Survey. Kelseyville is a city of 3,000 people about 90 miles northwest of San Francisco. The quake occurred near a location called The Geysers, according to the USGS. The geologically active area, home to geothermal plants, is hit by many small quakes a year. In fact, the area experienced five additional quakes, all less than magnitude-3.0, over the past 24 hours. (USDOI/USGS and Various Media Sources)