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National Situation Update: Wednesday, November 16, 2005

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

A Severe Storm System Is Affecting The Region IV States Of Mississippi, Kentucky, And Tennessee

In Kentucky, Marshall County was struck by a tornado at about 5:00 PM EST, Tuesday, November 15, 2005.  A mobile home park and a recreational area, occupied at the time, were impacted.  Injuries, as well as one confirmed fatality, have been reported.  Madisonville was also struck by tornadoes with several homes sustaining significant damages, along with reports of individuals being trapped.

In Mississippi, the State reports the storm is still affecting Mississippi.  There are no reports of damages at this time.  The Mississippi State EOC has not been activated; however, the duty officer is monitoring the situation. 

The Tennessee State EOC is not activated; however, the State is monitoring the situation.  The State has received reports of damages to homes and mobile homes in Montgomery County, as well as a tractor-trailer unit being overturned.  Minor injuries were reported.

The Kentucky Emergency Operations Center (EOC) is activated at Level 3, fully activated with all State agencies.  They are monitoring the situation and responding to requests from local governments.  The National Guard has been activated and an Incident Command has been established.  The Kentucky National Guard has deployed to the impacted areas to assist the local governments.   Search and rescue is ongoing. 

• Marshall and Hopkins Counties were the most severely impacted.  Incident Command Posts have been established in both counties.
• The State anticipates that a Forward Area Command will be established at the State Police Post in Madisonville in Hopkins County tomorrow, November 16, 2005. 
• Light to moderate damages have also been reported in Todd, Logan, Muhlenberg, Davis and McLean Counties. 
• Electric and telephone outages are widespread (numbers affected unknown at this time) and are coming back on line slowly. 
• Damages have been reported to the infrastructure and private properties. 
• One fatality has been confirmed in Marshall County. 
• Numerous injuries have been reported throughout the impacted areas.
• Search and rescue operations are ongoing.  Madisonville was struck by tornadoes and reports of trapped individuals had been received. 
• The Governor and the Adjutant General are scheduled to visit the impacted areas tomorrow. 
• A FEMA Response Liaison has been requested to report as soon as possible to the Kentucky EOC.

The Regional Response Coordination Center (RRCC) in Thomasville, GA activated at Level 3 at 6:00 PM EST to monitor the severe weather activity.  Beginning tomorrow, hours of operations will be 7:00 AM to 7:00 PM until further notice.  Contact with all affected states is being maintained and a Response Liaison has been identified and notified to report to the Kentucky EOC tomorrow, November 16, 2005.  There have been no other requests for assistance.

As of 0430 EST (0930Z),.Wednesday, 16 November 2006,  the National Weather Service cancelled all Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Advisories, Warnings, and Watches in the areas of activity. However, tornadoes, or possible tornadoes, were suspected in touching down in TN (11), KY (7), MO (5), IN (10), and IL (2) during the alert period.  Casualties, including one fatality, and property damages were noted,  In addition, high winds and hail were noted in these states as well as LA, AR, MS, AL, OH, and WV. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS/SPC, FEMA Region IV, and Various Media Sources)

Flooding In Central US

A powerful storm system crossing the central US dropped 4 to 7 inches of rain from slow moving thunderstorms and parts of Missouri and Illinois into Kentucky and Indiana had urban and small steam flooding, with street flooding.  These same areas are currently under tornado and severe thunderstorm watches which are forecasting 1 to 2 inch hail, high straight-line and cyclonic winds, intense lightning, and heavy downpours.  This heavy rain is expected to track SSW to NNE from the Lower Mississippi Valley through the Ohio Valley “hugging” the Ohio River as it moves eastward.  In addition, a significant winter storm is anticipated across the northern Plains, the upper Mississippi Valley, and the western Great Lakes.

As a result, National Weather Service Offices have issued flood warnings and/or statements during the past 24 hours for locations including (in alphabetical order):

• Illinois: Clark, Clay, Crawford, Cumberland, Effingham, Gallatin, Hardin, Jackson, Jasper, Johnson, Lawrence, Massac, Pope, Richland, Saline, Union and Williamson Counties
• Indiana: Clark, Clay, Crawford, Daviess, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison, Jefferson, Knox, Orange, Perry, Posey, Spencer, Sullivan, Switzerland, Vanderburgh, Vigo and Warrick Counties
• Kentucky: Bracken, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant, Henderson, Henry, Oldham, Owen, Pendleton, Trimble and Union Counties
• Missouri: Bollinger, Cape Girardeau, Christian, Douglas, Green, Howell, Iron, Lawrence, Madison, Newton, Oregon, Ozark, Perry, Reynolds, Shannon, Taney, Texas and Wayne  Counties.  (USDOC/NOAA/NWS)

Excessive Rainfall Discussion for Wednesday and Thursday, November 16-17, 2005

The same strong cold front that brought the severe weather to the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys on Tuesday and Wednesday, November 15-16, 2005, is expected to move across the Northeastern States over the next 48 hours. The strong cold front states may produce some locally heavy, .50 to 1.50 inch rains in an hour or so Wednesday afternoon and evening. For most areas, these amounts and the rapid movement of the front to the north and east should cause little runoff problems, but there are a few locations especially over northern Pennsylvania and New York where these amounts could approach existing flash flood guidance values. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS/HPC)

Blizzard Warning: ND-Canadian Border

Blizzard conditions will continue most of the night along the North Dakota and Manitoba border. While no additional snowfall will occur tonight, northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph will combine with the new snow that fell from Cando to Langdon to Pembina and cause blizzard conditions to continue in open country. Winds will slowly subside by morning and visibilities will improve. In some locations, visibility has been reduced to less than .25 miles.  (USDOC/NOAA/NWS/SPC)

National Weather Summary

The weather story was far less active across the western two-thirds of the country. Rain showers changed to snow showers across portions of the Upper Midwest as the previously mentioned storm system pushed to the north and east and portions of western Iowa received accumulating snow and strong, gusty winds lead to blowing and drifting of the snow and produced low visibility and near blizzard conditions in some spots.

Further south and west, there was partly cloudy skies with dry and cold conditions across most of the Great Plains and windy conditions were experienced. Meanwhile, a cold front continued to press through southern Texas and scattered showers and thunderstorms broke out ahead of it. No significant rainfall amounts or severe weather was reported.

Elsewhere, a large ridge of high pressure produced partly cloudy skies and dry conditions across the Rockies, the Pacific Northwest, the Intermountain West, the Desert Southwest, and California. Colder conditions were found across the Rockies, but much warmer conditions were found along the Pacific Coast.

A warm front lies across Rhode Island, Connecticut, southern New York, southeastern and lower Michigan, central Indiana, and central Illinois.

A cold front stretches across central Illinois, western Kentucky, western Tennessee, southeastern Arkansas, northwestern Louisiana, and southern Texas.

A stationary front lies across central Montana.

National Weather Forecast

This evening across the East, a strong area of low pressure is likely to continue to move eastward through the Great Lakes, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Northeast.

This strong low will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to much of the aforementioned regions throughout the night. Wide-spread strong to severe thunderstorms will remain likely across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through midnight.

• These storms are expected to produce frequent lightning, damaging winds gusting to 65 miles-per-hour, large (1-2 inch) hail, widespread tornadoes, and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding.
• Rainfall amounts of over two inches are possible in localized areas. A mix of rain, sleet, and freezing rain will affect northern sections of the Northeast along with strong, sustained at 20 to 30 miles-per-hour, gusting to 40 to 50 miles-per-hour at times.

Elsewhere, scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are forecasted to develop over parts of the Southeast. No severe weather is expected with these storms, and rainfall amounts up to one half of an inch may accumulate.

The only dry weather in the East will be found along the eastern Gulf Coast. Temperatures are likely to drop into the 30s and 40s over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, Great Lakes, northern tiers of the Northeast, and Deep South; while temperatures will remain in the 50s and 60s elsewhere. Southern Florida can expected temperatures to be in the 70s.

In the central section of the Nation, the previously mentioned low pressure system is expected to bring showers and thunderstorms to the Mississippi River Basin and western Gulf Coast. Severe storms will contain large hail, damaging winds, dangerous lightning, and tornadoes at times and locally heavy rainfall is possible where up to 2 inches may occur in selected areas. Further to the north, cold air will continue to push in behind the system, with rain mixing with and changing over to snow in the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes where snowfall amounts from three to six inches are possible across Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin. Snow will increase in intensity in northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan late with six to ten inches possible. Strong, gusty winds associated with this entire system will persist throughout the Plains before beginning to dissipate late.

Further to the north and west, high pressure is likely to build in behind the cold front and bring clearing skies, cold temperatures, and dry conditions. Temperatures are expected to range in the teens and 20s across the Central to Northern Plains, western Great Lakes, Midwest, and Missouri Valley; while upper 20s to the 30s will be found over the Southern Plains and Ozarks. The Lower Mississippi River Basin and western Gulf Coast is likely to be in the 50s.

In the West, partly cloudy skies and gusty winds are anticipated to prevail over the Desert Southwest, Great Basin, and much of central California. Winds are likely to decrease in intensity this evening. Otherwise, a broad ridge of high pressure will dominate the rest of the region, allowing for partly cloudy skies and fair conditions. Temperatures will range in the teens and 20's across the Rockies, Great Basin, and the higher elevations of California and in the Pacific Northwest. Lows in the 30s are expected over the Pacific Northwest and northern California lower elevations, while lows across southern California and the Desert Southwest will range in the 40s and 50s.

Details - National Weather Forecast

Midwest: Dangerous severe storms, some packing the threat of violent tornadoes, will continue to stalk much of the Great Lakes region southward through Kentucky tonight, but the threat should be over by sunrise. During the day tomorrow, strong winds will sweep much colder into the Midwest with a significant wind chill factor developing. The highest gusts will belt the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, but it will be windy everywhere. Snow showers, or rain showers changing to snow showers, will gallop over much of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes with lake-effect snows blossoming over the U. P. of Michigan and western and lower Michigan. High temperatures will be the lowest of the season so far with readings ranging from the wintry teens in northeast North Dakota and northwest Minnesota to the low 50s in southwest Kansas. Readings in the 30s and 40s will dominate the lakes and lower Midwest. Of course, the strong, gusty winds will make it feel much colder.

South: Severe thunderstorms, even the threat of violent tornadoes, will continue to plague portions of the South--mainly the region between the Mississippi Valley and Appalachians--right through the tonight. Tomorrow, in tandem with a cold front, a few legacy showers and thunderstorms will push through the Southeast and Florida, but the threat of a severe storm or two should be confined to the Carolinas. Behind the front, much cooler air will flood into the region with gusty winds making it feel even chillier. High temperatures will range from the 40s in northern Arkansas and much of Tennessee to the 80s (just ahead of the front) in parts of eastern South Carolina, southeastern Georgia and the Florida Peninsula. By Thursday morning, lows are expected to plunge into the 20s and 30s across much of the Deep South.

Northeast: A strong cold front, accompanied by downpours and thunderstorms--a few perhaps severe--will plow through the Northeast tomorrow. By evening, the heaviest precipitation is expected to extend from New England to southeast Virginia along and just ahead of the onrushing front. Behind the front, gusty winds will hurl much cooler air into the region with temperatures tumbling in the wake of the front's passage. By Thursday morning, readings are forecast to range from the 20s in western Pennsylvania, West Virginia and western Virginia to the low 40s along the Atlantic Coast.

West: High pressure will continue to dominate the West tomorrow with any precipitation likely confined to a few showers in northern Washington and northern Idaho, and scattered snow showers in the Bitterroots and Tetons. Santa Ana winds will again yowl through the canyons and passes in the mountains of Southern California, and red flag warnings for high wildfire danger are likely to continue.

Sunny skies will prevail in California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona and New Mexico. High temperatures are predicted to range from the 20s in Yellowstone National Park to the 80s in southwest Arizona and parts of the L. A. Basin. Elsewhere in the Golden State, readings in the 70s will blanket the lower elevations.  (USDOC/NWS and Various Commercial Sources)

State of Kansas Disaster Declaration

On Tuesday, President Bush issued a disaster declaration for the State of Kansas.  The declaration, FEMA-1615-KS-DR, was for damages caused by severe storms and flooding between October 1-2, 2005.  Thomas J. Costello, from the National Federal Coordinating Officer (FCO) Program will lead the recovery effort under which the following Designations and Types of Assistance: will be available:

• Individual Assistance (Assistance to individuals and households): None.
• Public Assistance (Assistance to State and local governments and certain private nonprofit organizations for emergency work and the repair or replacement of disaster-damaged facilities): Atchison, Jackson, Jefferson, Leavenworth, and Shawnee Counties.
• Hazard Mitigation Grant Program: (Assistance to State and local governments and certain private nonprofit organizations for actions taken to prevent or reduce long term risk to life and property from natural hazards): All counties in the State of Kansas are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program.  (FEMA HQ)

2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season: A Record-Breaker

The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season already has shattered many long-standing records, chief among them a record number of named storms (23), requiring the use of the Greek alphabet for the last two storms. There have also been (13) hurricanes so far this season breaking the old record of 12 set in 1969. Another record set was for the most Category Five hurricanes (3) in a season with Katrina, Rita, and Wilma.

• Wilma would become the strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic Basin with a pressure of 882 mb breaking the old record held by Gilbert set in 1988 with a pressure of 888 mb.

The landfall of (4) major hurricanes on the US set a record. Also, the final tally for damage will go on to show that this season was the most costly in US history breaking the terrible season of 2004 with 45 billion in damage just recently set last year.  (USDOC/NOAA/NWS/NHC and Various Commercial Sources)

Space Weather Outlook

Summary for November 7-13 Category R1 (minor) radio blackout conditions were observed on Sunday, November 13, 2005 in various locations due to flare activity from active sunspot Region 822. As a result, the outlook for November 16-22, 2005 includes the possibility of Category R1 (minor) radio blackouts from active sunspot region 822 in certain areas.

There have been no reports from FEMA elements indicating the activity affected their communications.   (USDOC/NOAA Space Environment Center Boulder, CO)

Tropical Activity

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and theGulf of Mexico :

As of 4:00 a.m. EST, Tropical Depression 27 was centered near 14.8 north and 71.4 west, or about 275 miles south-southwest of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. It is tracking to the west at 14 mph and has sustained winds of 30 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 millibars or 29.71 inches.  The depression may be upgraded to a tropical storm by that time and named Gamma; the 24th named storm of this record-breaking season. 

• As the depression continues its westward to west-northwestward path through the Caribbean over the next 5 days, the environment will become more favorable for strengthening. The potential exists for the depression to become a hurricane by the end of the week, perhaps even a Category 2 hurricane.  
• However, at the present, TD 27 has run into wind shear and reconnaissance aircraft has indicated that the depression has failed to become a tropical storm. The system is not particularly well organized at the moment, but should eventually become a tropical storm, perhaps sometime tomorrow as strong winds aloft over the system weaken. The future course of the disturbance would appear to be generally westward through the Caribbean during the remainder of the week.

Another area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean will produce heavy rain over Panama and Nicaragua and will be closely watched over the next couple of days for possible slow development. These currently disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas are associated with a broad area of low pressure and upper-level winds are conducive for slow development of this system over the next couple of days. Regardless of whether or not the system becomes a tropical cyclone, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central America from Panama to Nicaragua during the next couple of days and these rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic , there is a tropical wave that is nearly devoid of convection near 53 west south of 17 north pushing slowly westward. Conditions are unfavorable for development further east in the Atlantic .

The western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico are under the influence of high pressure, and the weather is tranquil there.  Therefore, tropical storm formation is not expected through Wednesday.

For the Eastern North Pacific East of 140 W - Tropical storm formation is not expected through Wednesday.

For the Central North Pacific Between 140W And 180 - No tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday morning.

For the Western Pacific, Southern Pacific, and Indian Oceans - Tropical Storm (TS) 24W, located approximately 600 nautical miles east of Manila, Philippines, is continuing to track north-northeastward at 10 knots and poses no threat to US interests. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS/NHC and Various Commercial Sources)

Earthquake Activity

In the United States there was no significant activity during the last 24 hours.

The magnitude 6.1 earthquake that occurred off the east coast of Honshu Japan at 3:20 p.m. EST on November 15, 2005 produced no tsunamis that impacted the US. (USDOI/USGS, National Earthquake Information Center,  PacificTusnami Warning Center, Japanese Media)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1615-DR-KS -- Individual Assistance: None. Public Assistance:Atchison, Jackson, Jefferson, Leavenworth, and Shawnee Counties. All counties in the State of Kansas are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program.  (FEMA HQ)