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National Situation Update: Friday, November 11, 2005

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

West: A cold front will sweep across the Pacific Northwest today, Friday, November 11, 2005, while an area of low pressure aloft pushes across the Southwest and into eastern Colorado. As snow levels plummet to 3,000 feet in the Washington Cascades, showers and mountain snow will spread eastward into Montana and Wyoming. Meanwhile, showers and a few thunderstorms along with high mountain snow at and above 9,000 feet will expand across the Four Corners states. Saturday will feature rain and snow showers across the Pacific Northwest before the next storms comes flying in by late Saturday and early Sunday. Temperatures will be cooler, but more seasonable, in the Northwest and Southwest on Friday, but will remain warm across the Front Range of the Rockies.

Northeast: It will remain cool across the Northeast today, Friday, November 11, 2005, with much less wind. As a result, temperatures will be milder over the coming weekend and highs on Friday will range from the 30s along the Canadian border to near 60 in southern Virginia. On Saturday, the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic will be sunny with temperatures ranging from the 40s in northern New England to the 60s along and south of the Mason-Dixon Line. Showers will move into western New York, western Pennsylvania, and West Virginia later Sunday while east of the mountains the weekend will finish dry and pleasant.

Midwest: Mild to very warm temperatures are expected across the Plains and into the Midwest today and the well above warm weather will spread across the entire region on Saturday. Highs on Friday will range from the 50s across the Great Lakes and eastern Ohio Valley to the 60s and 70s in the Plains and perhaps a few low 80s in southwest Kansas. High temperatures may approach, or even exceed, record levels across the High Plains on Friday. The next storm system will develop across the Plains on Saturday sparking some thunderstorms activity; a few of these storms may become severe. The cold front will cool the record and near record November warmth back to average. Showers and a few thunderstorms will shift eastward across the Ohio Valley along the cold front Sunday as rain changes to wet snow in the Upper Midwest. Another storm will influence the region by Monday night as part of a progressive "roller coaster" of cold fronts followed by warmer temperatures each time.

South: Cooler and much drier air has invaded the South and that should lead to a frosty start over many locations. Highs will range from the 50s in eastern North Carolina to the 80s in southern portions of Texas and Florida. A gradual warming trend over the next few days is forecast. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the approach of the next cold front on Sunday from the Ohio Valley to the western Gulf Coast. Some areas are in great need of some rain after a long dry stretch for a great deal of the South. (NWS and Various Commercial Sources)

National Weather Summary

Light snow showers continued to fall across portions of western and northern New York, northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire, and upstate Maine. Generally a dusting to nearly 2 inches snowfall have accumulated throughout the day. However, a few local spots in Maine had reported up to 5 inches since early this morning. Milo, ME, received 5 inches; Fort Kent, Frenchville, and Plaisted, Maine, all received 4 inches throughout the day. The upper-level trough of low pressure will generate scattered snow showers across northern New England, northern New York, and western New York and up to two inches of snow will be possible in northern Vermont, but other areas will receive an inch or less. Wind gusts up to 35 miles-per-hour will accompany the snow showers. Otherwise, however, a dome of high pressure produced clear to partly cloudy skies, dry weather, and much cooler temperatures throughout the Middle Atlantic, Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, and Southeast. Low temperatures ranged from the upper 20s to mid 30s across the Northeast, Appalachians, Great Lakes Region, and Ohio Valley. In the Middle Atlantic, and across most of the Southeast, lows ranged from the mid 30s to upper 40s. However, central and southern Florida experienced lows primarily in the 60s.

A strong high pressure ridge dominated over the entire Central region this evening. Generally mostly clear skies with dry, calm, and cool conditions prevailed over the Plains, Mississippi River Basin, Missouri Valley, Ozarks, and Midwest. A few lingering showers were found along the coasts of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana. Rainfall amounts ranged under .10 inches.

In the West, an upper-level low-pressure system brought mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to central and southern California. Rainfall amounts ranged under .25 inches throughout the day. Further north, a cold front pushed onshore of the Pacific Northwest and produced overcast skies with scattered rain showers. Rainfall amounts generally ranged up to a half-inch so far today. However, the highest rainfall total in the country today was in Quillayute, Washington, where 1.37 inches accumulated. High pressure dominated over the rest of the western regions and provided mostly clear skies with dry conditions and near normal temperatures. However, an upper-level low did produce rain and mountain snow showers across central and southern Utah, northern Arizona, southern Nevada, and southern California and up to three inches of snow was noted at elevations above 8,500 feet in the southern two-thirds of Utah and northern Arizona. Rain and mountain snow showers also developed over western Montana, northern Idaho, Washington, and Oregon in association with a cold front that moved into the Pacific Northwest. Snow accumulations of one to two inches were reflected at elevations above 5,000 feet in western Montana and northern Idaho, and at elevations above 3,500 feet in Washington and Oregon. Otherwise, however, tranquil weather conditions prevailed throughout the central and southern Rockies, Upper Midwest, and the Plains due to the absence of any other storm systems. Lows ranged from the upper 20s to upper 30s in the Upper Midwest and northern Plains, while the central Plains experienced lows ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s. In the southern Plains, lows ranged from the upper 40s to near 70, with the warmest temperatures in extreme southern Texas. Across the Rockies, Intermountain West, and Pacific Northwest, low temperatures ranged from the low 30s to mid 40s. California experienced lows primarily in the 40s and 50s, while the Desert Southwest saw lows ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s.

A cold front extends across northwestern Washington. Another separate cold front extends across southern Texas, southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, southern Georgia, eastern South Carolina, and eastern North Carolina. (NWS and Various Commercial Sources)

Recovery of Electric Service in Florida

Florida Power and Light (FPL) has provided the following power restoration data, and full restoration dates, weather permitting, of the 5,400 remaining outages (reduced from 12,600 November 9, 2005), as of 1:00 pm EST November 10, 2005:

Puerto Rico Disaster Declaration

The President declared a Presidential disaster for the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, FEMA-1613-DR-PR, due to Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides between October 9-15, 2005. Justo Hernandez, from the National FCO Program, has been appointed the Federal Coordinating Officer (FCO).

The disaster declaration provides for the following types of assistance:

• Individual Assistance (Assistance to individuals and households): None.
• Public Assistance (Assistance to State and local governments and certain private nonprofit organizations for emergency work and the repair or replacement of disaster-damaged facilities): The municipalities of Aibonito, Juana Díaz, Lares, Maricao, Peñuelas, Ponce, Salinas, Santa Isabel, Utuado, Villalba, Yabucoa and Yauco.
• Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (Assistance to State and local governments and certain private nonprofit organizations for actions taken to prevent or reduce long term risk to life and property from natural hazards): All municipalities in the principal island of Puerto Rico within the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. (FEMA HQ)
  

Tropical Weather Outlook

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico, an area of cloudiness and showers has developed over Panama and the adjacent southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next day or so as it drifts northward. Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Friday and no tropical organization is expected through Saturday.

However, development is possible next week as the tropical Atlantic Basin has a broad area of high pressure in the lower and mid-levels of the atmosphere across the Gulf of Mexico into the western Atlantic south of 30 north. A weak cool front will disrupt this pressure pattern during the next 36 hours, then high pressure will become re-established by this weekend. Given this environment, the wind flow across the Atlantic and Caribbean is still from east to west south of 20 north. North of 20 north, the mean lower and mid-level wind flow is generally from the north or northwest. Therefore, no tropical development is possible in this kind of flow north of 20 north.

South of 20 north, NWS and its commercial and international partners are tracking tropical waves along 45 west, along 67 west and along 84 west. Although NWS and its partners see no important development with any of these waves through the next few days, long range global computer models are hinting at a broad area of low pressure becoming established over the eastern Caribbean Sunday and Sunday night then slowly attempting to organize during next week.

For the Eastern North Pacific East of 140 Degrees West Longitude, the tropical wave about 700 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California continues to lose organization. As upper-level winds are forecast to become gradually less favorable for development. Tropical cyclone formation from this system is becoming less likely. Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Friday.

For the Central North Pacific between 140W and 180, a tropical disturbance centered about 1,800 miles east southeast of Hilo, Hawaii is moving towards the west at 15 mph. If the disturbance persists, it may move into the central Pacific Saturday and further develop. Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Saturday morning.

For the Western and Southern Pacific Oceans and the Indian Ocean, Tropical Depression (TD) 23W (TEMBLIN) was located approximately 385 nautical miles southeast of Hong Kong tracking northwestward at 17 knots. TEMBLIN has significantly weakened as it has moved off of Luzon, Philippines into the South China Sea. The depression was located east of Luzon, Philippine Islands near 15.5 degrees north and 122 degrees east with sustained winds around 50 mph. TEMBLIN will strike central Luzon today and eventually emerge over the South China Sea on Friday. The main threat with this storm will be flooding rain and mudslides, mainly over Luzon. Otherwise, there were no tropical cyclones to report and none are expected to form over the next 24-48 hours. (NWS and Various Commercial Sources)

Earthquake Activity

No significant activity to report. (USDOI/USGS, National Earthquake Information Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1613-DR-PR - Public Assistance for the municipalities of Aibonito, Juana Díaz, Lares, Maricao, Peñuelas, Ponce, Salinas, Santa Isabel, Utuado, Villalba, Yabucoa and Yauco. All municipalities in the principal island of Puerto Rico within the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program.

FEMA-1614-DR-MA - Individual Assistance for Berkshire, Bristol, Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Middlesex, Norfolk, Plymouth, and Worcester Counties. Public Assistance for Berkshire, Franklin, Hampden, and Hampshire Counties. Berkshire, Bristol, Essex, Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Middlesex, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk, and Worcester Counties are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. (FEMA HQ)