National Situation Update: Thursday, November 10, 2005

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

West: Showers, rain and mountain snow will move back into western portions of Washington and Oregon Thursday, November 10, 2005 as a Pacific cold front slowly moves inland.

Locally heavy precipitation may unload on the northern Washington Cascades and Olympic Mountains.

Snow levels in the Evergreen State may start out rather high, 6000 to 8000 feet, then drop to 4000 to 5000 feet by late in the day as the front crosses the Cascades.

Farther south, a slow-moving upper-air low will continue to spin showers into Southern California. Locally heavy downpours are expected in some coastal and mountain locations. Also, a few showers may move northeastward, traverse the Sierras and slip into parts of Nevada. Elsewhere in the West, it will remain dry.

Temperatures are forecast to be near seasonal means along the West Coast, but well above average in the Rockies. Highs should range from the 30s in the northern Washington Cascades to the 80s in the lower deserts of the Southwest. Readings in the 50s and 60s will dominate the Great Basin.

Northeast: Blustery, chilly weather will dominate the Northeast in the wake of Wednesday's storm system and a cold frontal passage.

In addition to the gusty winds Thursday, scattered rain and snow showers will dot interior locations.

A little slushy snow, or wintery mix, may coat higher elevations in some locations, but nothing more than an inch or two seems probable. (More significant accumulations, 5 to 10 inches, are expected Wednesday night in far northern Maine north of a warm front.).

High temperatures tomorrow will be in tune with the season... near or just slightly below average with readings ranging from the 30s in parts of Pennsylvania, New York and far northern New England to the 60s in southeast Virginia. The busy winds, of course, will make it feel even colder.

Midwest: Except for a few light rain or snow showers flitting around northern Michigan Thursday, November 10, 2005, dry weather will dominate the Midwest and Plains.

Winds will be busy in many areas, but temperatures will not be particularly low. In fact, readings should be will above mid-November means in the Upper Midwest and Plains.

Highs are expected to range from the 40s around the Great Lakes (maybe the upper 30s in the eastern U. P. of Michigan) to the 60s over a good chunk of the Plains.

South: After a shower in some locations, the South will turn sunny, drier and cooler Thursday as a cold front slides southward and eastward.

Only eastern North Carolina is likely to experience any significant rainfall with some locally heavy showers or thunderstorms possible early in the day as the front scoots out to sea.

Gusty winds will follow, stirring up the air over most of the Southeast.

High temperatures will be generally in tune with the season, ranging from the 50s in much of northern Tennessee and northwest North Carolina to the 80s in south Texas, south Georgia and Florida. (NWS and Various Media Sources)

Recovery of Electric Service in Florida

Florida Power and Light (FPL) has provided the following power restoration data, and full restoration dates, weather permitting, of the remaining 12,600 outages (reduced from 51,900 November 8, 2005), as of 8:00 pm EST November 9, 2005:

County	Out of Power As of Nov 8	As of Nov 9	Restoration Date
Broward	34,800	8,100	November 11, 2005
Miami-Dade	16,700	4,200	November 11, 2005
Palm Beach	400	300	November 10, 2005

(Florida Power & Light, Florida State Emergency Operations Center)

Flash Flood Watch Is No Longer In Effect For The Burn Areas Of Southern California

A Pacific storm system that stalled off the Southern California coast weakened considerably Wednesday as much drier air wrapped into the low pressure area.

Isolated to scattered showers were predicted for Wednesday night mainly across the coastal waters and south coastal areas. As a result, the flash flood watch is cancelled for the burn areas of Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles Counties.

Although isolated to scattered showers will occur overnight, the immediate threat of flash flooding has ended. The low pressure area will move to the southeast on Thursday and will have the potential to generate additional showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain will be possible with any thunderstorm activity, but at this time the threat of flash flooding is minimal. (NWS)

Tropical Activity

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical Storm formation is not expected through Thursday. However, although the tropical weather pattern across the Atlantic Basin has become very quiet, which is not unusual this late in the tropical season. However, the National Weather Service and its commercial and international partners are still tracking identifiable tropical waves along 34 west, 44 west, 62 west, and along 81 west. All waves are moving to the west at around 15 mph; none are expected to develop.

For the Eastern North Pacific east of 140 degrees west longitude, a westward-moving tropical wave is accompanied by a broad area of low pressure centered about 650 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California. This system has continued to slowly organize this afternoon. Although upper-level winds are forecast to become gradually less favorable for development, this system has the potential to become a tropical depression over the next day or two as it moves westward to west-north-westward. Elsewhere, although tropical storm formation is not expected through Thursday, the convection generated by the previously mentioned disturbance about 500 miles south of the southern Mexican coast persisted through Wednesday morning. There are even some signs of a circulation developing. Conditions are favorable for this system to become a tropical depression, possibly later Wednesday.

For the Central North Pacific between 140 West and 180: No tropical cyclones are expected through Friday morning.

For the Western and Southern Pacific and Indian Ocean, although there is no tropical activity of operational significance, interest, and/or concern to FEMA as of early Wednesday, Tropical Storm Tembin (23W) was located roughly 600 miles east of Manila, Philippines, and traveling west at 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 50 mph, with gusts to 60 mph. Tembin is expected to continue toward the northwest over the next two days, spreading heavy rains into the eastern shores of the northern Philippine Island of Luzon. Landfall will occur early Friday, most likely as a fairly strong tropical storm. As of early Wednesday, Tropical Cyclone 2S had weakened into an open tropical wave, and is expected to dissipate over the next two days. No other tropical development is anticipated through Friday. (NWS and Various Media Sources)

Earthquake Activity

No significant activity to report. (USDOI/USGS, National Earthquake Information Center)