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National Situation Update: Thursday, December 29, 2005

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

Northeast
The Ohio Valley system that brought severe weather to the South Wednesday will undergo a redevelopment and will organize off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Thursday. This will become the focal point of what will become a Nor?easter later in the day. This storm will only drop moderate to heavy rain from Long Island to the Canadian Maritimes through early Friday due to the above normal temperatures. As this storm begins to wind down Friday, some cold air will come into play and snow could accumulate in extreme Northern New England. Even under cloud cover and rain, temperatures across the region will exceed average temperatures for the date.

West
Rain, showers, strong winds, choppy seas will all be retreating in intensity through Thursday. The West receives a short-lived respite from the endless stream of Pacific storms that have battered the region. The regime resumes late Thursday as yet another intense system works its way onshore. The rain will intensify during the evening hours Thursday with the event peaking on Friday. Through that time, expect heavy rain that could total over 12 inches in foothill regions of Northern California and Southwest Oregon. Snow levels will begin to drop to pass heights and several feet of snow could accumulate through the weekend.

Midwest
Wednesday?s Pacific system will move into the Northern Plains on Thursday. If this were any other winter, we would be describing strong winds and blowing snow for Montana and the Dakotas. But the very warm pattern of late has left the region short of enough cold air to support such a scenario. Instead, what little cold air is in around will remain shallow and thus help to turn any precipitation that falls will be a mix of rain and some frozen precipitation, with the possibility of some freezing rain as this falls on colder surfaces.

South
After hail, wind, tornadoes, and over 100 storm reports on Wednesday, the weather will be much calmer on Thursday across the South. The low-pressure system responsible for the Wednesday?s severe weather outbreak moves into the Northeast, leaving the South with little in the way of the precipitation barring a few morning showers for North Carolina. (Source: NOAA/NWS and various media outlets

Severe Storms in California, Nevada and Pacific Northwest

The second in a series of three Pacific storm systems is passing through Northern California, Nevada and the Pacific Northwest today as local responders prepare for a third system to arrive on Friday. Following Sunday?s storm, the current system is forecast to drop two to four inches of rain on coastal Northern California before dissipating Wednesday night, and a cumulative 4-8 inches are forecast with passage of the third system.

The National Weather Service forecasts multiple rivers to reach flood stage and crest today and tomorrow due to runoff. Of particular concern is the Russian River currently under Flood Warning and forecast to exceed flood stage this afternoon with potential impact to Healdsburg, Cloverdale and Guerneville. Other rivers cresting or at flood stage include the Eel, Klamath, Navarro, Smith and Trinity, all in rural areas. Inland, the Sacramento River has exceeded flood stage in Tehama, 90 miles north of Sacramento, presenting flood risks downriver in levee areas.

Four homes were lost due to a landslide in Fort Bragg, Mendocino County, where 12 residents are being sheltered at a local motel. The Del Norte County Sheriff's Office Search & Rescue started notifying and evacuating residents in the Klammath River Basin area due to flood risk at 0900 EST this morning.

Mendocino County highway closures due to flooding include Hwy 101 at Confusion Hill, Hwy 175 at Hopland, and Hwy 1/128 along the Navarro River. In Sonoma County, US Hwy 1 north of Jenner is closed. (Source Region IX Incident Report)

Tropical Activity

There is no tropical activity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico.

There is no tropical activity in the Eastern, Western or Central Pacific Ocean. (Source: USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (Source: United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Achille Fire Complex – OK:  The FMAG request for the Achille Fire Complex was approved. There are two fires working one on each side of the community Achille, Bryan County, OK. 165 homes threatened, 400 persons evacuated.  0% contained. 10 homes destroyed and 14 outbuildings destroyed. (Source: FMAG 2594 and Incident Report)

Hughes County Fire Complex – OK: The FMAG request for the Hughes County Fire Complex was approved. There are 65 homes threatened, and 75 individuals have been evacuated. The fire is currently 5% contained.  There are currently 7 Volunteer Fire Departments responding with 16 pieces of equipment. The towns of Yager City and Wewoka are currently being threatened by this complex. (Source: FMAG 2592 and Incident Report)

Kennedale Fire Complex – TX: The FMAG request was approved for the Kennedale Fire Complex. There are approximately 100 homes threatened, 100 individuals have been evacuated and1 fatality has been reported. The fire is currently 25% contained, there are no state resources available, only local responders and volunteers.(Source: FMAG 2593 and Incident Report)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)