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National Situation Update: Sunday, December 18, 2005

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

West: A series of Pacific storms will try to drive aggressively into the West Coast, but will mostly be deflected by a persistent ridge aloft. The end result will be unsettled conditions in the northern half of the West Coast through the week ahead.

• On Sunday and Sunday night, the first significant system to be deflected northward will dump plenty of rainfall and mountain snow from Central California into western Washington State.
• Snow levels are expected to range from around 5,000 feet in the Siskiyou Mountains to 6,500-7,000 feet in the central Sierra by Sunday afternoon.
• As the rain expands northward on Sunday/Sunday night some freezing rain is expected in the Willamette Valley including the Portland area with gusty winds once again in Portland along with the Bay Area. 

South: The fast-moving storm that brought cool rain to many around the Gulf Coast on Saturday also delivered heavy rain to parts of northern Florida where some locales picked up over 4 inches of rain. For Sunday, this system will continue to move swiftly with showers ending in Carolinas for the afternoon, while they linger over the southern half of Florida all day.

Northeast: Sunday night and into Monday, a pocket of cold air will sweep across the Great Lakes leading to another round of lake-effect snow to the south of Buffalo and south of Watertown in New York. Temperatures will become below average by Monday and continue that way into Tuesday. 

• Another winter storm will be bringing a wintry mix of precipitation to parts of the Southeast and Middle Atlantic Saturday night and into Sunday morning.
• From Charlotte, NC, to Raleigh, NC, and points south and east, the precipitation will be all rain.
• From Greensboro, NC, to Richmond, VA, there will be a mix of snow, sleet and rain. An inch or two of snow is possible from northwestern North Carolina through central Virginia.

Midwest: The batch of snow that dumped as much as 6-8 inches in Kansas on Saturday will slide east and mostly diminish on Sunday. A strong area of high pressure will be the dominant feature in much of the Midwest today, however light snow showers or flurries are still possible from Indiana westward through Missouri and into Kansas. Otherwise, expect more snow around the Great Lakes and cold temperatures. Highs on Sunday will range from as much as 10-20 degrees below average across region. Look for teens and single digits to be common from the Northern Plains to the western Great Lakes.

• Snow showers and flurries will continue around the Great lakes through Wednesday as the cold air crosses the warmer lakes.
• A disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere will allow moist air from the Pacific to override a chilly air mass to the north and result in a cold rain across much of Texas Monday night into Tuesday.
• There may be just enough cold air left behind from the Texas Panhandle through southern Oklahoma for a mix of snow and rain, but any accumulation will be little, if any.

(USDOC/NOAA/NWS and Various Commercial and Media Sources)

More than 300,000 Still Without Power after Southern Ice Storm

More than 300,000 homes and businesses in the Carolinas are still without power, days after an ice storm struck.

The area's primary electric utility reports that most of those outages are in South Carolina, and according to Duke Power it may be days until the lights come back on.

Duke Power's 6,500 employees and contractors have already been joined by 1,700 crews from 16 states, with another 1,000 on their way. This will bring the total number of personnel working on the restoration effort to more than 9,000.

Sleet and snow was expected over the western half of North Carolina Saturday night and Sunday, the National Weather Service said. Snowfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches was expected along the Virginia-North Carolina border, with rain further south, but no significant frozen accumulation. (Duke Power and Various Media Sources)

Holiday Season Weather

Hazards

• Locally heavy Lake Effect snows are likely to continue from December 19 through 21, 2005. 
• A storm moving rapidly across the northern Gulf of Mexico may bring a mix of hazardous frozen and freezing precipitation across the interior South December 20-22, 2005.
• Several episodes of heavy precipitation with gales in coastal areas are expected from the eastern Aleutians along the South Coast and Panhandle of Alaska, with some also affecting the Pacific northwest coast.

Detailed Summary

Monday December 19 - Wednesday December 21

• Several strong storms will bring gales and heavy precipitation to southern parts of Alaska, extending southward along the Pacific Northwest Coast. Cold air will continue to stream across the Great Lakes, bringing locally heavy Lake Effect snows to the usual favored areas in the lee of the Lakes.
• A storm moving across the northern Gulf of Mexico may bring some frozen or freezing precipitation to interior areas of the Gulf and South Atlantic States.

Thursday December 22 - Monday December 26:

• Gales will continue along the Alaska South Coast, and some of these storms may also affect the Pacific Northwest Coast. 
• The intensity of the cold air over the East and the accompanying Lake Effect snows will gradually diminish, with several storms expected to cross the Pacific Northwest Coast and bring much milder air over the U.S., reaching the East Coast by Christmas Eve.
• There is a possibility of another storm over the Appalachians and Atlantic Seaboard during this period, but milder air may limit the areas of snow and frozen precipitation to only higher elevations of the Appalachians and northern New York and New England and cold air could hold on for most of the period over parts of the Northeast.

Tuesday December 27 - Friday December 30: 

• There is a reasonable consensus that the western ridge and eastern trough will be less amplified, giving a generally weaker version of the western ridge and eastern trough pattern that we have seen the past several weeks. However, the current pattern could begin to re-amplify near the end of the period, renewing the cold in the East.  (USDOC/NOAA/NWS/CPC)

A Cold December – So Far

Much of the country has experienced a cold December so far. Across parts of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and Middle Atlantic states, the average temperature has been well below normal this month with some locations averaging more than 10 degrees below normal! Pittsburgh, PA 10.8 degrees below normal Cleveland, OH -9.8 Indianapolis, IN -10.4 Detroit, MI -8.7 Cincinnati, OH -10.0 Philadelphia, PA -8.0 Chicago, IL -9.8 Washington, D.C. -7.7.  (Various Commercial and Media Sources)

Tropical Activity

There is no tropical activity in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Pacific. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

During the last 24 hours, there were a number of minor earthquakes over 3.0 magnitude in Alaska (3), Hawaii (2), and Puerto Rico (1).  There were no reports of casualties or damage.

A small 2.5 magnitude earthquake registered Friday night near Newport, Nebraska, in northern Rock County. Residents in northern Rock and eastern Keya Paha counties reported feeling the tremor. The quake rattled some dishes but no injuries were reported.  (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)