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National Situation Update: Thursday, December 15, 2005

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

West: High pressure dominates the West and will remain in place for the next few days. Expect stagnant air with fog and low clouds over the Columbia Basin, Puget Sound, valleys west of the Cascades and California's Central Valley. There will be some afternoon burn-off of the fog particularly in California. The only other significant weather will be few snow showers in Montana.

Midwest: Low pressure over the upper Midwest will produce light snow and snow showers over the northern and central Plains. On the Plains, gusty northerly winds will produce blowing snow and reduced visibilities. In Ohio and Kentucky, a mix of snow/freezing rain and rain to the south will give way to snow showers during the day as colder air pushes in from the west.

South: Cold air along the Appalachians and overrunning moisture from a warm front along the East Coast will produce ice and freezing rain from Virginia south to Northeast Georgia. Expect rain with isolated severe weather along the coast from Florida to North Carolina.

Northeast: Shallow cold air along the Appalachians and overrunning moisture from a warm front along the east coast will produce a wintry mix along much of the mid Atlantic. Central and Western Pennsylvania are under winter storm watches where the potential of six inches or more of snow exists. New York and Boston will have mixed precipitation before changing to all rain tonight. (NOAA/NWS and Various Media Sources)

Alaska’s Augustine Volcano

During the past several days, the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) has detected changes in the style of earthquake activity and received other information about gas emissions and steaming at Augustine Volcano.

Augustine Volcano is a 4134 ft conical-shaped stratovolcano located on Augustine Island in southern Cook Inlet, about 180 miles southwest of Anchorage, Alaska. Augustine is the most historically active volcano in the Cook Inlet region. Historical eruptions occurred in 1812, 1883, 1908, 1935, 1963-64, 1976, and 1986. These eruptions were primarily explosive events that produced volcanic ash clouds and pyroclastic flows. During the 1883 eruption, a volcanic rock avalanche occurred on the north flank of the volcano; it flowed into Cook Inlet and initiated a tsunami observed at Nanwalek, about 90 km to the east.

Two seismic events on Friday evening (12/9), and Sunday evening (12/11) may have perturbed the hydrothermal system, initiating steam explosions. These events are consistent with reports of steaming at the summit observed on Saturday (12/10), and distinct sulfur smell in the air on Sunday evening at Nanwalek and Port Graham, approximately 50 miles east of the volcano. Collectively, these events are signs of continued and elevated level of volcanic unrest, but do not indicate that an eruption is imminent in the next few days to weeks. The level-of-concern color code remains at Yellow and AVO will continue to monitor activity closely.

Abbreviated Color Code Key:

• GREEN volcano is dormant; normal seismicity and fumarolic activity occurring
• YELLOW volcano is restless; eruption may occur
• ORANGE volcano is in eruption or eruption may occur at any time
• RED significant eruption is occurring or explosive eruption expected at any time

A steam plume extending at least 45 miles SE from Augustine Volcano is clearly visible by satellite and has also been reported by local pilots. Images in the web camera also show a plume. The plume appears to be primarily steam.

A report describing the hazards associated with eruptions and other types of volcanic activity at Augustine Volcano can be obtained at http://www.avo.alaska.edu/pdfs/augustine_ofr.pdf

The Alaska Volcano Observatory is a cooperative program of the U.S. Geological Survey, the University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, and the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys.(United States Geological Survey, AVO)

Tropical Activity

There is no tropical activity in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Pacific. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center,  Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

During the last 24 hours there were a number of small earthquakes in Alaska and the West Coast ranging in magnitude from 2.5 to 4.9.  There were no reports of casualties or damage. (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

No significant activity has been reported.  (USDA/USFS and the NIAFC and USDOC/NOAA/NWS/SPC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA DR-1597-ND closed on December 14, 2005. (FEMA HQ)