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National Situation Update: Monday, December 12, 2005

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

Across the East, snow showers developed across the Ohio Valley, the Great Lakes region, Northeast, and portions of the western Middle Atlantic. Snow accumulations were generally light, with a few spots in western lower Michigan recording a snowfall of six inches.

Snowfall across the Northeast, the Ohio Valley, and the Middle Atlantic was generally less than 3 inches, mostly in the higher elevations west of the Appalachians, Poconos, Catskills, Adirondacks, and White and Green Mountains.

A mix of rain and snow impacted the eastern Tennessee Valley. Light rain showers fell across portions of southern Florida. The remainder of the Southeast remained under partly cloudy skies with dry and fair conditions.

Across the central third of the nation, a mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow developed across the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota and swept into the upper and middle Mississippi Valley. No significant accumulations 

In the West, coastal and patchy fog and haze remained in place in southern California, reducing visibilities to near a quarter of a mile at times. (NOAA/NWS and Various Media Sources)

Today's Forecast Summary - A Mostly Quiet Monday

Monday will be a mainly quiet weather day for much of the nation with no major problems. A weakening upper disturbance will help enhance snowfall in the Central and Southern Appalachians. Accumulations of 1-3 inches (locally 3-6 in higher elevations) are possible on Monday in southern West Virginia, southwestern Virginia, eastern Kentucky, northeastern Tennessee and western North Carolina. The snow should be winding down on Monday night.

Lake-effect snow will continue off of Lakes Erie and Ontario on Monday, but should begin to abate by Monday night. Lake-effect snow advisories are posted through the middle of the day in northeastern Ohio, northwestern Pennsylvania, southwestern New York, and the counties just east of Lake Ontario. The western Great Lakes should also see some snow enhanced by a weak area of low pressure originating from Canada.

Northeast: An upper-level trough of low pressure will keep temperatures cold and below average over the next few days. Highs on Monday will only manage to reach the 30s east of the Appalachians while much of the interior chills in the 20s. Tuesday is expected to be even colder with afternoon readings ranging from the teens in interior sections of Northern New England and Upstate New York to the 30s in northern Virginia. Lake-effect snow on Monday should wind down off Lake Erie first and then Lake Ontario later in the day. Otherwise, snow showers are in the forecast for much of the interior from New England through West Virginia.

South: With showers exiting Florida during the overnight much of the South will enjoy a quiet weather day. Once exception will be the Southern Appalachians where some snow is expected due to a weakening clipper system. Highs temperatures will be very tolerable ranging from the 40s in Tennessee and northern North Carolina to the 60s along much of the Gulf Coast. The warmest readings (70s) are expected in extreme South Florida and South Texas. The next big weather maker for the South is expected to arrive in the Southern Plains on late Tuesday and sweep through the region later this week.

Midwest: Other than some snow showers around the western Great Lakes, the region can expect a quiet beginning to the work week. A chilly start is in store this morning around the Great Lakes with morning lows in the teens and single digits. Afternoon readings will be well below average in Great Lakes and Ohio Valley with highs only reaching the 20s and some teens. Further to the west it will be a bit milder for the Plains with highs in the 30s and 40s dominating the picture. A new storm will enter the Plains from the Northern Rockies on late Tuesday and into Wednesday bringing snow and rain with it.

West: The west has been dominated by an upper-level ridge of high pressure over the last few days leading to some stagnant air problems in the Pacific Northwest. A weak system accompanied by a few showers may break the ridge down just enough to provide enough mixing and allow the air to clear out a bit. This system will dig south and eastward bringing snow to the Northern Rockies by Tuesday. An upper-level system which has been parked off the coast of Southern California for quite some time will also advance eastward. This system is very moisture starved and should only result some scattered light precipitation mainly in the higher elevations of Arizona, New Mexico, and California. These two system mentioned above will join together and become the next significant weather system in the Central and Eastern U.S through the week.   (Various Commercial and Media Sources)

Report: California Unprepared For Tsunami

Tsunami waves generated by a large offshore earthquake would threaten at least 1 million coastal residents in California and inundate the nation's largest port complex, according to a new report. The study being released Monday also found gaps in the state's readiness to handle a tsunami, including flaws in the existing warning system, lack of evacuation plans by coastal communities, and building codes that do not take into account tsunami-strength surges. In addition, many residents are unaware of the potential danger of tsunami waves and would not know how to respond.  In June, a tiny tsunami off the far Northern California coast exposed just how unprepared the region was to the threat.

In the past century, more than 80 tsunamis, mostly minor, have been recorded or observed along the California coastline. The most deadly was in 1964 when a magnitude-9.2 earthquake in Alaska generated massive waves that killed 12 people.  While catastrophic tsunamis rarely strike the West Coast, state officials are acutely aware of the potential for damage and loss of life as a result of booming development along the coastline because about a million people live in low-lying coastal areas that are vulnerable to flooding by a tsunami and existing building codes call for structures to be able to withstand severe shaking from an earthquake, but the report revealed that homes and businesses are rarely designed to hold up against tsunami-force surges. 

Although the state Office of Emergency Services and the University of California have produced inundation maps that show the coastal areas most at risk, but few communities have used them to map out and mark evacuation routes and most coastal communities lacked evacuation plans for residents because of funding problems.

Along with threatening lives and property, a giant tsunami would strike an economic blow to the state, given the vulnerability of its ports.  If a tsunami shut down the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach for two months, the economic loss could reach $60 billion. The ports make up the third busiest port in the world, but its docks and terminals are only about nine feet above the water and a massive wave higher than that could cause extensive damage as thousands of pleasure boats and other crafts could come loose, and vehicles, equipment, containers and tools could get washed away.

A joint program by the NOAA and Federal Emergency Management Agency is also working on design guidelines for tsunami shelters that could extend to strengthening hospitals and other facilities as well. (Various Media Sources)

Tropical Activity

There is no tropical activity to report. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

Over the last 24 hours, earthquakes with magnitudes of over 3.0 were reported in Alaska (3), Utah (1).  The 3.1 earthquake in Utah was located 170 miles south of Salt Lake City. There were no reports of damage or injuries.

Worldwide, a 6.5 magnitude earthquake was reported 395 miles northeast of Papua New Guinea's capital, Port Moresby. No reports of damage or injury.  No tsunami warning was issued. (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

No significant activity has been reported.  (USDA/USFS and the NIAFC and USDOC/NOAA/NWS/SPC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The Joint Field Office for DR-1597-ND will be closing on December 14, 2005   (FEMA HQ)