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National Situation Update: Sunday, December 11, 2005

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

Across the East yesterday, light snow showers impacted the Northeast as the remnants of a storm system swept out of the region. Accumulations were less than two inches. Lake effect snow showers developed across lower western Michigan as well, with no significant snow accumulations reported with this activity. Snow showers developed across the western Great Lakes region and the western Ohio Valley during the afternoon hours as a weak clipper system swept into the region. Snow accumulations were generally less than 2 inches with this weak disturbance.

The Tennessee Valley, Middle Atlantic, and Southeast remained under partly cloudy skies with dry and fair conditions. Minor flooding was forecasted for the Roanoke River near Williamston, North Carolina.

Across the central third of the nation, snow showers fell across the upper Mississippi Valley and the eastern Dakotas as the previously mentioned clipper system swept southeastward out of Manitoba. Snow accumulations were generally light, but stronger lake effect snow showers developed across the upper peninsula of Michigan with this system. Snow accumulations of up to 8 inches were noted in a few locations across upper Michigan in association with these lake effect snow showers.

The southern and central Plains, as well as the lower and middle Mississippi Valley, remained under partly cloudy skies with dry and fair conditions with high pressure in control over the region.

In the West, high pressure dominated the entire region, bringing partly to mostly clear skies with dry and fair conditions. Winds were generally light across the region as well. Some regions of haze and fog formed across southern and central California, slightly reducing visibilities, but no other significant weather was reported across the western United States.

Lake Snow but Mostly Clear for Sunday

Sunday is forecast to be another quiet weather day for much of the lower 48 states due to an expansive high-pressure system anchored over the country.   The following weather fronts will dominate the near-term forecast:

• A warm front extending across southern Florida.
• A warm front extending across southwestern Minnesota and eastern Iowa.
• A cold front extending across northeastern North Dakota, central Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and the upper peninsula of Michigan.

Northeast: A clipper system will bring mainly light snow into the interior Northeast from West Virginia northward through western Pennsylvania and western New York.  Winter storm watches have been posted for the higher elevations of Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia and snow advisories have been posted for the higher elevations of Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania.  More significant snow (lake effect) is likely through Sunday night downwind of Lake Erie in extreme portions of northeastern Ohio, northwestern Pennsylvania, and southwestern New York. Much of the eastern half of the Northeast will escape the threat of precipitation and should see partly cloudy skies with temperatures remaining cool. Daytime readings will range from the 20s and 30s in the interior to the 30s east of the Appalachians with some 40s in the Del-Mar-Va region.  Gale Warnings are posted for the central North Atlantic Continental Shelf and slope waters beyond 20 nautical miles to 250 nautical miles offshore including waters and coastal areas south of Georges Bank to Baltimore Canyon and Hatteras Canyon into this morning.  Winds up to 25 mph and seas up to 8 feet are possible.

South: High pressure anchored over Texas will keep much of the South very quiet on Sunday.  However, parts of the Florida Peninsula may be dampened by some showers especially early in the day. The only other area the may see some precipitation will be the Southern Appalachians where some snow showers or flurries are possible with the greatest chance during the overnight hours when an upper-level disturbance arrives. Sunday's highs are expected to be below average in much of the Southeast while areas further to the west such as Texas and Oklahoma enjoy near average temperatures. Afternoon readings will range from the 30s in northern Tennessee to the 40s from northern Georgia westward to northern Arkansas with mainly 50s and 60s elsewhere.  Freeze warnings are in place for northern Florida and southern Georgia.

Midwest:  A weak upper disturbance will bring a swath of some light snow and flurries from the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota to Iowa and Illinois.  A juxtaposition of conflicting fronts has resulted in the posting of freezing rain advisories in North Dakota and although snow fall amounts of less than an inch are anticipated with most places only receiving a trace of snow, snow advisories are in place for portions of Minnesota.  Those sections of Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin prone to lake effect snow have been placed under lake effect snow advisories and warnings. During the evening and through the overnight, this same system will deliver light snow from central Illinois southeastward through central Kentucky. Another snowy spot will be behind a cold front in the favored lake-effect snow belts of Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio. This same cold front will usher in a reinforcing shot of cold air into the Great Lakes. Highs will only manage to reach into the 10s and 20s in the Great Lakes and only into the 20s in the northern Ohio Valley. Further to the West, the Plains can expect to see above-average highs ranging from the 30s and 40s in much of the Northern Plains to the 40s and 50s in the Central Plains. 

West:  A large area of high pressure centered over the Great Basin will ensure another tranquil day in the West. However, fog and stagnant air will persist in the Pacific Northwest while the Central Valley of California can expect to wake up to dense morning fog and Fog Advisories are posted for California, Nevada, and Oregon.. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies across the region with temperatures generally close to average. On Monday, a weak system will push into the Pacific Northwest providing enough mixing to end the air stagnation and fog problems in the Pacific Northwest. An upper-level system pulling out of the Southwest will eventually hook up with the system diving into Northwest and become the next big weather player in the Central and Eastern U.S. as we head through the week.   (USDOC/NOAA/NWS and Various Commercial and Media Sources)

Flooding

In Fremont and Madison Counties, Idaho, ice jams have formed on the Henrys Fork River near Saint Anthony where the river level has risen a foot to six feet since Friday .

If the trend continues, the stage will reach seven feet by noon Sunday; flood stage is seven feet, and flooding of low lying areas near the river is possible. These ice jam conditions are expected to continue through Monday.  (USDOC/NOAA/NWS/HPC)

Space Weather

For the period November 28 through December 4, 2005, minor activity (R1) was reflected between November and December 2, 2005.

On December 2, 2005, moderate activity (R2) generating limited radio blackouts occurred on due to solar flare activity from NOAA sunspot Region 826.

Outlook for December 7-13. No significant space weather is expected during the forecast period.  (USDOC/NOAA/SEC)

National Weather Service Declares Hawaii the First Tsunami-Ready State in the U.S.

Officials from NOAA's National Weather Service praised Hawaii's civil defense team for completing a set of rigorous warning and evacuation criteria necessary to earn the distinction of the entire state being Tsunami-Ready and Storm-Ready. All four counties in Hawaii earned the Tsunami-Ready and Storm-Ready designation, making Hawaii the first state in the United States to achieve this status.  The Tsunami-Ready and Storm-Ready designations must be renewed every three years.

Tsunami-Ready and Storm-Ready community preparedness programs use a grassroots approach to help communities develop plans to handle tsunamis, local severe weather, wave impacts, and flooding threats, and help communities inform citizens of threats associated with each. These programs are voluntary, and provide communities with clear-cut advice through a partnership between the local National Weather Service offices and state, county and local emergency managers. Storm-Ready started in 1999 and has grown to more than 990 Storm-Ready communities in 48 states and there are more than 20 Tsunami-Ready communities in six states.

To be recognized as Tsunami-Ready and Storm-Ready, a community must:

• Establish a 24-hour warning point and emergency operations center;
• Have more than one way to receive tsunami and severe weather warnings and forecasts to alert the public;
• Create a system that monitors local weather conditions;
• Promote the importance of public readiness through community seminars; and
• Develop a formal hazardous weather plan, which includes training severe weather spotters and holding emergency exercises.  (USDOC/NOAA/NWS)

Tropical Activity

There is no tropical activity to report.

Weak La Niña, conditions are likely during the next 6-9 months. La Niña is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, compared to El Niño, which is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific.

In the U.S., winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the Southeast, and cooler than normal in the Northwest. (National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

Over the last 24 hours, a series of nine minor earthquakes, with magnitudes of over 3.0 were reported in Alaska.  There were no reports of damage or injuries.

Following an increase in small earthquakes under Augustine Volcano near the Kenai Peninsula and Homer, Alaska last week, the Alaska Volcano Observatory in Anchorage raised the level of concern for Augustine Volcano from code green to code yellow.  (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

As of Friday, December 9, 2005, the National Preparedness Level remained at Level 1.

Initial attack activity was moderate nationally with 204 new fires reported for the week.

During the week, 48 eight new large fires were reported and contained, 35 in the Southern Area, nine in the Eastern Area, and four in the Southwest Area.

Although very high to extreme fire indices were reported in California, Arizona, Nebraska, and South Dakota, there are currently no critical fire weather areas.  (USDA/USFS and the NIAFC and USDOC/NOAA/NWS/SPC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)