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National Situation Update: Saturday, December 10, 2005

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Early Winter Storms Leave Mark

A potent winter storm dumped from 12-18 inches of snow across parts of New England December 8-9, 2005.  It was surreal in the Boston area on Friday afternoon as lightning danced across the sky and claps of thunder were heard as snow came down at a rate of 2 inches per hour. Nearly 13 inches fell at Worcester, Mass, while 17 inches accumulated at Kennebunk, Maine. Wind gusts reached hurricane-force.

The winter storm has departed the Midwest, but it certainly left its mark. Heaviest snow was found on the south and west side of Chicago where 8 to 10" of snow fell including at Midway Airport.  Indianapolis collected 7.7" of snow; a snowfall record for the date and the 4th snowiest December day on record.  (Various Media Sources)

National Weather Summary

Across the eastern third of the nation, Friday, December 9, 2005, a strong winter storm swept across the Northeast and the Middle Atlantic, bringing heavy rainfall to the Middle Atlantic and heavy snow and freezing rain across the Northeast.

Very heavy snowfall combined with high winds across Connecticut and Massachusetts led to blizzard conditions across these regions. Scattered lightning strikes were embedded with the snow showers across New England as well, leading to "thundersnow" reports across Massachusetts and Connecticut. Snow accumulations across New York and Vermont exceeded 10 inches in a few locations, with Springfield, Vermont reporting 10.5 inches of snowfall.

Rainfall across the Middle Atlantic was heavy at times as well, with rainfall of over three-quarters of an inch observed across southern Maryland and northern Virginia. Snow accumulations were also reported as far south as Maryland with this activity, with Bowling Green, Maryland reporting 9 inches of snowfall and Frostburg, Maryland reporting 8 inches of snowfall.

The Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Southeast, and Great Lakes regions were under high pressure, leading to partly cloudy skies with dry and fair conditions.

Across the central US, isolated light rain showers developed across southern Texas, although no significant rainfall totals were reported.

Across the northern Plains, clouds built into the Dakotas along a weak clipper system sweeping through the region. Isolated light snow showers developed across this region as well, with no snow accumulations reported.

The remainder of the central US remained under the influence of high pressure, bringing partly cloudy skies with dry and fair conditions through the day.

In the west, high pressure was in control across the entire region, allowing for partly cloudy skies with dry and fair conditions. A region of very strong winds was seen across the northern Rockies, with locations in Montana reporting wind gusts of over 45 mph. Some of these locations included Cutbank, Montana, which recorded a 60 mph wind gust, and Livingston, Montana, which received wind gusts of 56 mph. Otherwise, high pressure brought mostly clear skies to the remainder of the region. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS and Various Commercial and Media Sources)

A Calmer Weekend Ahead

Northeast: A high-pressure system will bring settled weather to the region on Saturday. Under partly cloudy skies and fresh snow, highs on Saturday are forecast to generally reach into the 30s for much of the region, which is a few degrees below average for this time of the year. A fast moving storm system known as an Alberta clipper will move through the Northeast by the end of the weekend but will only bring light snow to much of the region. However, around the eastern Great Lakes winds may turn favorable for lake-effect snow to develop on Sunday. 

Midwest:  Low pressure will drop down out of Canada and affect parts of the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes region on Saturday. Snowfall from this system will be light, generally one to two inches, but winds may gust from 30 to 40 mph. The rest of the region will be dry and slightly milder. Sunday will feature snow showers across the Upper Midwest with some locally heavier snow downwind of the Great Lakes.

South:  Texas will enjoy a nice warm-up this weekend with afternoon highs ranging from the 50s in the Panhandle to near 70 in Brownsville. The 50s will spread from Oklahoma to the Carolinas with the 40s extending from Kentucky to northern Alabama and northern Georgia.

West:  The Central Valley of California and the Pacific Northwest are areas where fog and air stagnation will be a problem for the weekend. A slow moving storm system off the Southern California coast should stay far enough offshore that clouds will not impact the weather on Saturday. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies will warm afternoon highs from Southern California to the Southwest into the 70s. Along the eastern slope of the Central Rockies, afternoon highs will warm into the 40s.  F

US Volcanoes

With the exception of the following volcanoes, all other US volcanoes are at or near normal levels of background seismicity and their respective volcano observatories did not detect ash plumes or significant elevated surface temperatures in the vicinity of any volcano.  Although some volcanoes may currently display anomalous behavior, they are not considered to be at a dangerous level of unrest.

Alaska

• Spurr Volcano: Yellow
• Veniaminof Volcano: Yellow
• Augustine Volcano: Yellow

Cascades Range

• Mount St. Helens: Orange 

Although these volcanoes are active, their seismic activity profiles do not constitute an actionable threat to surrounding populations, critical infrastructures, and key resources.  (USDOI/USGS)

Scientists Say Morris County Jolt Was Small Earthquake

Seismologists confirmed Friday that a small earthquake hit parts of Morris County, New Jersey Thursday night, December 8, 2005, triggering a rash of calls to local police departments from startled residents. The 2.1-magnitude earthquake struck at 10:35 p.m., according to the US Geological Survey. There were no reports of injuries or property damage.

Seismologists at the Lamont-Doherty Cooperative Seismographic Network in Palisades, New York said temblors like the one Thursday night are not uncommon in New Jersey.  The last earthquake in New Jersey occurred April 23. Seismologists tracked the epicenter to the Lodi area where it measured at magnitude 1.9, still enough to be felt.  (USDOI/USGS and Various Media Sources)

November-December Tornadic Activity

The final numbers are in for the tornado outbreak on November 27, 2005 - 47 tornadoes in AR, KS, and MO, including "the killers" in AR and MO.

The tornado outbreak on November 15, 2005 had 50 confirmed tornadoes.

The preliminary count for the month wound up at 135, the 3rd most on record for a November; November 2004 holds the record with 150 tornadoes.

Ten days in November 2005 had tornadoes; that has now happened 5 times in the last 56 years.
Four days had deadly tornadoes in November 2005; that has happened now three times in the last 56 years.

There were five deadly tornadoes, killing a total of 27, with the Evansville tornado about 2:00 a.m. on November 6, 2005 killing 23.  The Evansville tornado was the deadliest of the year so far and the deadliest individual tornado since the Moore, OK, tornado of May 3, 1999. Other deadly "killer tornadoes occurred on November 12 (1), 15 (1), and 27 (2). The strongest November 2005 tornado was an F4 at Madisonville, KY, which is preliminarily the strongest tornado of the year.

December Tornadoes - Historical Prediction: December has averaged just 24 tornadoes over the past 10 years (way below the monthly average of 65 for November).During the last 10, 20, and 30 years, December has averaged the fewest tornadoes, slightly below January and February. In some years, though, December can be active. In the past 3 years, December has averaged 42 tornadoes, with January just 2 and February just 10.December 2002 set the monthly record with 99 tornadoes.  (Various Commercial Sources)

Minnesota State of Emergency-Winter Storm

Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty declared a state of emergency on Friday for western and northwestern Minnesota counties affected by a severe winter storm that hit November 27-29, 2005 knocking out power to thousands of homes, and damaged power lines and buildings.

The state of emergency applies to Big Stone, Clay, Lincoln, Mahnomen, Norman, Otter Tail, Stevens, Traverse, Wilkin, and Yellow Medicine Counties.

Pawlenty asked state agencies to determine needs for disaster aid in the affected counties.  (Various Media Sources)

Tropical Activity

There is no tropical activity to report. (National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

Over the last 24 hours, minor earthquakes were reported in Alaska (7), California (2), and Washington (2), none with magnitudes exceeding 4.2. There were no reports of damage or injuries. (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

On Friday, December 9, 2005, the President signed a Presidential Disaster Declaration for the State of Alaska.  FEMA-1618-DR is for severe fall storm, tidal surges, and flooding that occurred September 22-26, 2005.  The Federal Coordinating Officer is Dennis Hunsinger. 

The declaration provides for the following designations and types of assistance:

• Individual Assistance: None.
• Public Assistance: Bering Strait Regional Education Attendance Area, Kashunamiut Regional Education Attendance Area, Lower Kuskokwim Regional Education Attendance Area, and the Northwest Artic Borough.
• Hazard Mitigation Grant Program: All boroughs and Regional Education Attendance Areas in the State of Alaska are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program.   (FEMA HQ)