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National Situation Update: Friday, December 2, 2005

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Winter Weather Continues in Much of the US

Midwest:  A Canadian Clipper storm will continue to dominate the weather in the Midwest especially in the Great Lakes area, where the system will bring additional "lake effect" snow to Michigan and Ohio on Friday. The cold temperatures are forecast to continue through the weekend and into next week.
 
Northeast:  A cold front will blow across the Ohio River Valley towards the Atlantic Coast on Friday bringing very cold temperatures and winds gusting up to 40 mph. Next week additional Arctic air is expected to push into the Northeast from Canada.

West:  A Pacific storm system will continue moving eastward on Friday, where it is expected to drop 1-3 feet of snow in the Rockies. The same storm system will also move southward bringing some rainfall to southern California and the desert Southwest.

South:  Most of the South will continue to see dry weather with seasonable temperatures on Friday. The Gulf Coast area will see warm temperatures on Saturday, although the region will experience cold temperatures starting next week. (NWS, Media Sources)

Weather Forecast for December 4-15, 2005

Meteorologists at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) in Camp Springs, Maryland have provided a weather forecast for the US for the period of December 4-15.

• The CPC predicts below-average temperatures over much of the central and eastern contiguous US, as well as over northern Alaska during the assessment period. A band of heavy precipitation is forecast from the lower Mississippi Valley northeastward to the New England coast, which will include rain, sleet, and snow later this weekend or early next week.
• Several days later, another winter storm may form, this time over the Gulf Coast states, and then head towards the mid-Atlantic region. Across the southern High Plains and the southern coast of California, there is an elevated chance of wildfires during the early stages of this assessment period.
• Much below-normal temperatures are expected over the north-central contiguous United States from Dec 4-6, and over the East from Dec 6-11 (a freeze is expected for the Deep South later in this period).
• Much below-normal temperatures are forecast for northern Alaska during December 6-11.
• Heavy precipitation is forecast from the lower Mississippi Valley northeast to the New England coast December 4-5, and also over western sections of Washington and Oregon on December 4th.
• There is an enhanced wildfire risk over portions of the southern High Plains on December 6th; and also over the southern California coast from Dec 4-6.
• Areas of drought over eastern Texas, northern Illinois, northeast Kentucky, the central portions of North Carolina and the interior Pacific Northwest should experience some relief during this assessment period.
• For the period December 04 - 06: A band of heavy precipitation is predicted from the lower Mississippi Valley northeast to the New England coast during this period, as a frontal system traverses the Eastern U.S. Significant snow is possible across interior portions of the mid-Atlantic states and Northeast, while coastal areas should see a wintry mix of rain, sleet and snow. In the wake of this storm, very cold air will stream southward across the Eastern states, and we anticipate locally heavy lake-effect snow squalls downwind of the Great Lakes as well. In the Pacific Northwest, onshore flow is forecast to bring significant precipitation to western portions of Washington and Oregon, with snow in the higher elevations and rain near sea-level.
• For the period December 07 - 11: Temperatures will likely be well below average during this period across most of the Eastern continental US, as well as over northern Alaska. There is a chance of a freeze in the Deep South later in this period, across Georgia and portions of adjacent states. Relatively warm temperatures are forecast for the far western portions of the country. In Alaska, above average precipitation is expected for the temperate rainforests of the Panhandle region.
• For the period December 12 - December 15: Temperatures for this period are expected to be below average across the eastern half of the country, and above average over much of the western half. Relatively dry conditions are anticipated across a large portion of the continental US. (NOAA Climate Prediction Center)

Tropical Activity

• Tropical Storm Epsilon, the 26th named storm of the Atlantic season, strengthens slightly in the central Atlantic Ocean. At 4:00 am EST on Friday, the storm was located about 895 miles east of Bermuda and about 1,310 miles west of the Azores.
• Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next 24 hours. The storm is not forecast to threaten any U.S. interests.
• There are no tropical storm formations expected in the Pacific Ocean or the Indian Ocean. (National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, media sources)

Earthquake Activity

No significant earthquake activity was reported in the US or US possessions, although there were several minor earthquakes in different parts of Alaska. There were no reports of injuries or damages. (USGS, NOAA West Coast Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level remains at 1 - the lowest state of readiness. (USFS, NICC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

On December 1, the President signed a major disaster declaration (FEMA-1617-DR-KY) for the Commonwealth of Kentucky for damages caused by severe storms and tornadoes on November 15, 2005. Individual Assistance was approved for Hopkins and Marshall Counties. No Public Assistance was authorized. All counties in the Commonwealth of Kentucky are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. Additional designations may be made at a later date after further evaluation.  (FEMA HQ)