(Oct 10, 2008)

India's 2008/09 cotton production is forecast at a record 25.0 million bales, up 0.5 million fromlast month, and up 0.4 million from last year. Area is forecast at 9.4 million hectares, up 0.2million from last month but down 0.15 million from last year. According to the FAS Office ofAgricultural Affairs in New Delhi, the latest 2008/09 cotton planting progress report from thegovernment of India indicated a steady increase in progress from last month but at a rate slightlybehind last season. Planted area for 2008/09 is likely to be lower than last year due partly to lateplanting in Maharashtra and Gujarat, the major cotton growing states, and due partly to expectedarea shift to other crops. Cotton planting is complete in most areas except in the southern statesof Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. September rainfall was normal to above normal in the majorgrowing areas, raising concerns of delayed harvest in the northern states of Punjab and Haryana.Continued improvements in cotton yields are expected largely as a result of the increasingadoption of Bt cotton varieties. It is anticipated that Bt cotton planting in 2008/09 will accountfor more than 70 percent of the expected cotton area. During the previous two years, thegovernment of India approved 62 new insect-resistant Bt varieties for commercial cultivation. Inaddition to the officially approved varieties, there are over 50 Bt cotton hybrids unofficially bredand marketed by farmers and seed companies at lower prices. The use of Bt cotton varieties islargely responsible for the forecast record yield of 579 kilograms per hectare this season. (Formore information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-1071.)

(Oct 10, 2008)

China’s 2008/09 cotton production is estimated at 36.5 million bales (7.95 million tons), up 1.0million or 3 percent from last month but down 1 percent from last year’s record crop of 37.0million bales. The estimated area of 6.0 million hectares is unchanged this month but down 0.2million or 3 percent from last year. Cotton yield is estimated at a record 1,325 kilograms perhectare, up 2 percent from last year’s yield and equal to the long term trend. Although therewere scattered incidents of insect damage, disease, and flood-related losses, the overall growingconditions were close to normal. Harvesting is now underway across China. According to a'survey by the China Cotton Association, an estimated 17.3 percent of the crop had beenharvested as of mid-September, down 1 percent from last year’s accelerated pace. Cottondevelopment in 2008 was slower than last year due to lower temperatures and above-normalrainfall in most cotton areas. Harvest progress was down about 2 percent from last year in theYellow River valley (which produces 23 percent of China’s cotton) and Yangtze River valley (18percent) but up 3.5 percent in the Northwest (10 percent). (For more information, contactPaulette Sandene at 202-690-0133.)

(Oct 10, 2008)

The USDA estimates record production and area for 2008/09 Canadian rapeseed. Production isestimated at 10.9 million tons, up 14 percent from a year ago, and area is forecast at 6.32 millionhectares, up 2 percent from last year. The increase in planted area was driven in part byfavorable prices for rapeseed. Growing conditions in the western provinces were nearly ideal,and significantly better than last year, when hot and dry weather placed stress on floweringrapeseed plants across the southern proportions of Canada’s western provinces and caused yieldsto drop below the 5-year average. In 2008, above-average rainfall and normal temperatures fromJune through the harvest season boosted yield to a near-record 1.72 tons per hectare, up 13percent from a year ago. (For more information, contact Arnella Trent 202-720-0881.)

(Oct 10, 2008)

The USDA estimates Canadian soybean production for 2008/09 at 3.24 million tons, up 20percent from last year. Soybeans are Canada’s second largest oilseed crop behind rapeseed.Soybean area for 2008/09 is expected to expand to 1.21 million hectares compared to 1.17million last year. Although prices were good for all crops, many farmers switched from corn to'soybeans because of lower production costs. In Quebec, for instance, corn area fell by nearly 14percent and soybean area increased by 32 percent from the previous year. Yield for 2008/09 isestimated at 2.68 tons per hectare, up 16 percent from 2007/08, and benefited from generallygood weather in the primary producing provinces. (For more information, contact Arnella Trent202-720-0881.)

(Oct 10, 2008)

The USDA forecasts Argentina’s sunseed area for 2008/09 at 2.5 million hectares, down 0.34million or 12 percent from last month and down 3 percent from last year. Yield is expected toremain at 1.76 tons per hectare, slightly less than last year’s 1.80 tons. Production is forecast at4.4 million tons, down 0.6 million from last month and down 0.23 million or 5 percent from lastyear. Planted sunflower area is down from previously forecast levels due to drought extendinginto the optimum planting window for sunflowers in northern cropping regions and a recentdecline in prices for sunseed and sunflower oil. Planting has slowed due to low soil moisture, andfarmers have planted only about 13 percent of the crop to date, down 30 percent from the samedate last year. Severe drought during late winter and early spring, rising costs of production andfalling sunseed prices have stopped many Argentine farmers from planting sunflowers this'season. (For more information, contact Dr. Denise McWilliams, South American Crop Analyst,202-720-0107.)

(Oct 10, 2008)

The USDA estimates Burma rice production for 2008/09 at 9.8 million tons (milled basis), up 0.4million or 4 percent from last month but down 0.9 million or 9 percent from last year. Rice areais estimated to have increased slightly from earlier forecasts following a devastating cyclone inMay. Based on field reports in recent weeks from USDA personnel traveling through thecyclone-ravaged region, it appears roughly 25 percent of rice lands in the worst-affectedprovinces of the Ayeyarwady delta did not get sown during the summer rainy season owing to'storm damage, salt intrusion, and shortages of seed, livestock, mechanical tillers, and fertilizers.Rice yields on the remaining 75 percent of cyclone-affected lands are also in question this year,as widespread problems have been reported concerning poor seed germination, thin cropestablishment, late planting, inappropriate rice varieties sown, low fertility, and increasedoutbreaks of pests. Typically, the summer wet season rice crop makes up roughly 70 percent oftotal rice production, with the other 30 percent coming from the irrigated winter dry season crop.Given the extent of cyclone damage to irrigation infrastructure in the Ayeyarwady delta, it is alsouncertain whether farmers will be able to produce a normal winter rice crop this year. (For moreinformation, please contact Michael Shean at 202-720-7366.)

(Oct 10, 2008)

The USDA estimates Canadian wheat production at 27.3 million tons in 2008/09, up 36 percentfrom 2007. The increase is due to higher global wheat prices, which encouraged farmers toexpand area for both winter wheat (up 68 percent) and spring wheat (up 9.5 percent). Harvestedarea is forecast at 10.1 million hectares, up 17 percent from last year, when wet spring weatherhampered the planting of spring wheat and some farmers instead planted shorter-season cropslike barley and oats. For the current season, normal rainfall and temperatures throughout thegrowing season boosted estimated yield to 2.7 tons per hectare compared to 2.3 tons per hectarelast year. (For more information, contact, Arnella Trent, 202-720-0881.)EU Achieves Second Highest Barley Yield and Third Highest Barley ProductionThe USDA estimates the European Union (EU-27) barley harvest for 2008/09 at 64.4 milliontons, up 1.6 million tons or 3 percent from last month and up 6.6 million tons or 11 percent fromlast year. Area is estimated at 14.6 million hectares, up 0.1 million from last month and 0.7million from last year. Area is the highest since 1999/2000 because of high grain prices and thelifting of mandatory set-aside area. Yield is estimated at 4.42 tons per hectare, the highest since2004/05. EU barley production consists of significant quantities of both winter and springvarieties, but it is slightly skewed towards more spring barley. Barley harvest is complete, andoutput was higher than expected due to favorable weather. Specifically, Spain’s 11.1 million tonbarley crop was much larger than initially estimated, the result of timely, above average rainfallduring spring. Meanwhile, favorable weather in France induced a record crop of 12.1 milliontons with a record yield of 6.82 tons per hectare, and Germany is estimated to have produced abumper crop of 12.1 million tons. (For more information, please contact Bryan Purcell at 202-690-0138.)

(Oct 10, 2008)

Australia wheat production for 2008/09 is forecast at 21.5 million tons, down 0.5 million or 2percent from last month, but up 8.5 million or 65 percent from last year. The area is forecast at13.5 million hectares, down 0.5 from last month, but up 1.2 million or 10 percent from last year.The majority of Australia’s wheat growing region experienced average to below average Augustrainfall. September rainfall in Western Australia, northern New South Wales, and Queenslandwas above normal, while the remainder of the growing area was below average. In certain areas,particularly southern New South Wales and northern Victoria, the dry conditions resulted in croplosses due to moisture stress and the crop being cut for hay. (For more information, contactDath Mita at 202-720-1071.)

(Oct 10, 2008)

Brazil corn production for 2008/09 is forecast at 55.0 million tons, down 2.0 million or 4 percent fromlast month and down 3.6 million from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 14.3 million hectares, down0.5 million or 3 percent from last month and down 0.4 million or 3 percent from last year. Yield isforecast at 3.85 tons per hectare, 12 percent above the 5-year average of 3.45 tons per hectare and slightlybelow the 10-year trend yield of 3.90 tons per hectare.Forecast area decreased this month based on industry reports indicating that the recent international creditcrisis will reduce the amount of credit available to Brazilian farmers, who have just begun planting the2008/09 main (summer) corn crop. In its initial forecast of 2008/09 corn area, the state statistical agencyof Brazil (CONAB) indicates a 2-percent decrease in the area of summer corn.The main (summer) corn crop accounts for nearly 70 percent of Brazil’s total corn output. The largest'summer-corn producing states are Parana, Minas Gerais, and Rio Grande do Sul, which account forapproximately 23, 16, and 15 percent, respectively. Planting in Parana is approximately 50 percentcomplete, and industry representatives in Parana forecast that area will decrease by approximately 5percent from last year. Planting of Brazil’s summer-corn crop will continue until December, and harvesttypically occurs between March and June. The states of Mato Grosso and Mata Grosso Do Sul are themain production regions for the second (winter, or safrinha) corn crop. Winter-corn planting will beginin February. Yields for both summer and winter corn have been increasing steadily over the past 20 years.Although summer-corn yield is consistently higher than winter-corn yield, the yield for wintercorn has been increasing at a higher rate and the difference between yields for the two crops isdecreasing. (For additional information, please contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)

(Sep 16, 2008)

The Middle East and Central Asia regions are currently in the grip of one of the worst droughts in recent history. Widespread failure of rain-fed grain crops occurred in 2008/09, as well as sizable declines in irrigated crop area and yield. Food grain production dropped to some of the lowest levels in decades, spurring governments to enact grain export bans and resulting in abnormally large region-wide grain imports. Should drought continue into the 2009/10 growing season which begins in October, even greater declines in grain production will occur as planted area for both rain-fed and irrigated crops will be severely restricted. A second year of severely reduced grain harvests would imply significantly increased regional grain import requirements as well as posing substantial threats to internal security in countries like Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Afghanistan is the most vulnerable, owing to its lack of financial resources for large-scale grain imports and lack of institutional expertise to plan and execute such imports.

(Sep 12, 2008)

Australia wheat production for 2008/09 is forecast at 22.0 million tons, down 3.0 million or 12percent from last month, but up 9.0 million or 69 percent from last year. Area is estimated at14.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 1.7 million or 13 percent from last year.Seasonal weather conditions have been variable across the major cropping regions of Australia.Since major sowing operations commenced in May, periods of dryness have affected significantareas of the Australia wheat producing states at varying times. In the two largest wheatproducing states of New South Wales (30%) and Western Australia (37%), an unusually dryAugust reduced potential yield. In the southern producing states of Victoria (12%) and SouthAustralia (17%) conditions have been marginally better but more rains are needed to maintaincrop prospects. September precipitation is critical in determining Australia wheat yield. Themaximum value of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) for the entire seasonoccurs during September in most growing areas and corresponds to the wheat crop at theflowering and reproductive stage. An historical analysis of satellite-derived Septembervegetation indices and Australia wheat yield reveal strong correlations (r-square 0.80 to 0.82) forthe major wheat producing states of New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and WestAustralia. Assuming normal crop development through September, the NDVI model indicatesyield at 1.57 tons per hectare. Australia’s five year average wheat yield is about 1.5 tons perhectare. (For more information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-1071)

(Sep 04, 2008)

USDA's August forecast for Kenya's 2008/09 corn production is 2.55 million tons, down 0.4 million tons from last year and below the 5-year average of 2.7 million tons. Area is estimated at 1.6 million hectares, down 0.1 million hectares from last year due to insecurity caused by Post-Election Violence (PEV) from January-April this year.

(Aug 29, 2008)

During early July members of USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) traveled through Poland meeting with various agriculture industry professionals, and toured farms, and assessed crop conditions. This report is a summary of the trip, including observations and photographs, and estimates from USDA's August World Agriculture Supply and Demand release.