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National Situation Update: Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West:
A cold front moving through the region is forecast to bring rain and mountain snow across northern Idaho, western Montana and Wyoming.  Strong winds are possible across the Rocky Mountains and a High Wind Watch is in effect through tonight.  Fire Weather Watches remain in effect for portions of central and southern California due to gusty northeast winds and very low relative humidity.  High pressure moving into the Great Basin may cause another Santa Ana wind event for southern California.

Midwest:
A storm system moving across the Rockies may bring showers and thunderstorms into the central Plains.  Some isolated storms in the High Plains could become severe with strong winds and large hail.  Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories are in effect for portions of Iowa and Illinois.  Flood Warnings are in effect for rivers in Minnesota, Kansas and North Dakota.

South:
Much of the region will be dry and chilly with the exception of warm temperatures in parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Texas.  Frost Advisories are in effect for parts of South Carolina and Georgia.  Red Flag Warnings in effect for eastern Florida Panhandle and portions of the Florida Big Bend due to the potential for a long duration of low relative humidity below 35 percent.  Numerous Fire Weather Watches in effect throughout the region.  Flood Warning in effect for the Rio Grande at Laredo affecting Webb County in Texas.

Northeast:
A storm system moving from the Great Lakes may bring snow and rain showers from New York and Pennsylvania eastward across New England.  Snow accumulation is possible from the Adirondacks through the White and Green Mountains.  Fire Weather Watch remains in effect through this evening.  Gusty winds, low relative humidity and dry fuel moistures will combine for Red Flag conditions over portions of the Mid-Atlantic Region.  Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories are in effect for portions of Maine and New York State. (NOAA; National Weather Service; Various Media Sources)

Federal / State Response for Hurricane Omar:

FEMA Region II:

• Regional Response Coordination Center (RRCC) is activated at Level III
• DCO at St Croix will demobilize by October 21; RRCC DCE demobilized on October 19 along with activated ESFs
• ERT-As remain deployed to Puerto Rico (PR) and U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI)

U.S. Virgin Islands (VITEMA):

• The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has completed assessment of the power distribution network
• Electric power restored to 90% of St. Croix; anticipate full power restoration by the end of this week
• IA PDAs began on October 20 in St. Croix and St. Thomas; anticipate completion on October 21 
• PA PDAs were completed in St. Croix, St. John and St. Thomas on October 19
• VITEMA reported no limiting factors or shortfall of resources  (FEMA Region II)

September: Ninth Warmest for Global Temperatures

According to an analysis provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the combined global land and ocean surface average temperature for September 2008 tied with September 2001 as the ninth warmest since records began in 1880.  In addition, the September global land surface temperature was the 11th warmest on record and the ocean surface temperature was the seventh warmest on record.  Global highlights for this September include multiple hurricanes in the Atlantic and Caribbean, two major typhoons in the Pacific, heavy rain and mudslides in southern Chile and severe storms in the United Kingdom.  Severe weather events last month resulted in approximately 1,000 deaths and damage to thousands of homes worldwide.  (NOAA)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
91L
An area of low pressure located over the Gulf of Honduras continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms over a large portion of the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  Significant development of this system is not expected due to proximity to land, but locally heavy rains are possible over portions of Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the Yucatan peninsula during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No current tropical cyclone warnings. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Monday, October 20, 2008:

• National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 1
• Initial attack activity: Light (50 new fires)
• New large fires: 1
• Uncontained large fires: 1
• Large fires contained: 0
• States with large fires: CA

Fire Weather: A large low pressure system and surface cold front will move into the Northwest today. Precipitation will spread across the Northwest and northern Idaho with windy conditions over much of the West. Above normal temperatures and low relative humidity will return to southern California as the flow turns offshore by afternoon. Low relative humidity will continue over much of the East.  (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1794-DR-MS Amendment # 3 was approved on October 20, 2008.  The amendment added Issaquena County for Public Assistance.  (FEMA HQ)