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National Situation Update: Sunday, October 19, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Federal / State Response for Hurricane Omar:

FEMA Region II:
The Regional Response Coordination Center (RRCC), activated at Level II (with ESFs 3, 7 and DCO activated), with limited staffing during the weekend (Saturday and Sunday), 8:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. EDT.

Two (2) ERT-As, one per area, are deployed to Puerto Rico (PR) and the US Virgin Islands (USVI), along with an ESF 3 Power Planning and Response Teams (PRTs), which is deployed to St. Croix.

U.S. Virgin Islands (VITEMA):
The Virgin Islands Territory Emergency Management Agency (VITEMA) EOC is activated and the Governor has requested an Expedited Major Disaster Declaration for Public Assistance and Hazard Mitigation for the entire territory. 

Power Situation:
Electric power:  approximately 6,900 remain without power (15%) in St. Croix.

Major limiting factor to total power restoration is downed power lines mostly located on the east side of St Croix which is sparsely populated and has accessibility issues.

Water service is operational with power, except in the town of Frederiksted.  All repairs should be completed on or about October 19, 2008.

No shortfalls of resources have been reported by VITEMA and IA and PA PDAs will begin on October 20, 2008 in St Croix. (FEMA Region II)

Santa Ana Winds Forecast for Coming Week

From Monday through early Tuesday morning, October 20 - 21, 2008, a strong upper trough will move into the Pacific Northwest.  At the surface, a cold front will surge eastward across Oregon, Idaho and northwestern Nevada, with winds increasing and shifting to the west.

Ahead of the front, sustained winds may approach 15 mph (with higher gusts), although temperatures in the 50s and 60s will prevent critically low relative humidity.  Shifting winds, in association with the front, will be a threat to any ongoing fires.

Meanwhile, farther south, offshore winds will begin to affect the coastal regions of southern California.  Relative humidity will be marginal, while locally gusty winds may occur (mainly near Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties).  Stronger winds are expected the following day.

From Tuesday through early Wednesday morning, October 21 - 22, 2008, the upper trough will quickly move southeastward, with the cold front progressing southward across northern California.

Although the stronger jet winds will remain east of California, dry, offshore flow (and low relative humidity) will contribute to critical fire conditions across northern California.  Northerly winds around 15 mph in the lower valleys, with critically low relative humidity and poor overnight recovery, can be expected.

Farther south on Tuesday, surface high pressure will build southeastward, with an increasing pressure gradient across southern California and stronger offshore winds will develop.  Extremely low relative humidity values in the single digits will combine with very dry fuels and gusty winds to create dangerous fire weather conditions along, and west of, the coastal range, with areas in favored canyons and passes to be especially vulnerable.

A minor change in the pattern could result in a weaker, or stronger, Santa Ana wind event.  (NOAA, NWS, Storm Prediction Center)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No significant activity to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Area 1:  The remnants of Tropical Storm (TS) Omar are centered about 855 miles east of Bermuda, and redevelopment as a tropical cyclone is not expected.

Area 2:  An area of disturbed weather continues over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in association with a broad area of low pressure.  Little motion is anticipated and development, if any, will be slow to occur.  This system will likely produce cloudiness and heavy rains over portions of Central America, primarily over Belize and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

Area 3:  Cloudiness and showers associated with a tropical wave, centered about 800 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, remain disorganized and upper-level winds are not conducive for development at this time.

Area 4:  Shower activity associated with the area of disturbed weather over the central Caribbean Sea has diminished

Eastern Pacific:
A broad and elongated area of low pressure, centered about 300 miles south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, is producing minimal shower and thunderstorm activity.  Environmental conditions do not appear conducive for development of this system.

Western Pacific:
No current tropical cyclone warnings.  (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

At approximately 1:10 a.m. EDT, October 19, 2008, a magnitude 7.1 earthquake occurred about 95 miles east-southeast of Nuku'Alofa, Tonga (1,240 miles northeast of Auckland, New Zealand) at a depth of 26.5 miles.  There were no reports of tsunami, damages or injuries.  (FEMA HQ, USGS, National Weather Service West Coast /Alaska Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Saturday, October 18, 2008:

• National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 1
• Initial attack activity: Light (61 new fires)
• New large fires: 1
• Uncontained large fires: 1
• Large fires contained: 2
• 2007 vs. 2008 Cumulative Fire Totals to date:
• 2007: 110,237 Fires; 12,899,948 Acres
• 2008: 73,986 Fires; 6,662,294 Acres

Fire Weather:  Onshore flow will bring cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity to California this weekend.  Dry and windy conditions will develop across the Great Basin and Rocky Mountain areas, and the Southeast will see a return of high pressure and low relative humidity this weekend.  (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)