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National Situation Update: Thursday, October 9, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West:
A developing storm system will bring rain and mountain snow showers to the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Snow levels will drop below 3,000 feet from Wyoming to Oregon. Sustained winds of 20 to 40 mph are possible from northern Arizona and central California northward to Idaho, Wyoming and Oregon. Gusts could exceed 45 mph in a few locations this afternoon and tonight.  A fire weather watch has been issued for the entire San Francisco and Monterey Bay region from this evening until Saturday evening.
Tomorrow gusts over 55 mph are possible throughout the region. The windy conditions should spread southward into southern California, setting up a prolonged strong wind event through the weekend. The magnitude and drying effect of these winds will create favorable conditions for fire growth, especially over the interior valleys and mountain ranges.
Midwest:
A generally dry cold front will drop temperatures across the northern part of the region but produce only a few showers and thundershowers.   Freeze warnings are in effect across the western portions of the Dakotas.  South of the front temperatures will reach the lower 80s but north of the front highs will only reach the upper 40s.
South:
Yesterday's storm moves to the South Carolina coast bringing rain and scattered thunderstorms to the Carolinas, eastern Georgia and Florida. This system may produce severe thunderstorms, hail, locally damaging winds and the possibility of an isolated tornado.
Northeast:
A cold front brings a few showers to the region this morning. Rainfall should be very light with most locations receiving less than one half inch. Skies will clear up during the afternoon hours with temperatures climbing into the 70s. (NOAA; National Weather Service; Various Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
Hurricane Norbert
At 5:00 am EDT the center of Hurricane Norbert was about 410 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico.  Norbert is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph and a gradual turn toward the north is expected later today followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Friday with some increase in forward speed.  Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph with higher gusts.  Norbert is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 24 hours.  Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.

Tropical Storm Odile
The fifteenth tropical storm of the season has formed over the eastern Pacific. At 5:00 am EDT the center of Tropical Storm Odile was located about 315 southeast of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Odile is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph. A general west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days.  On this forecast track the center of Tropical Storm Odile should move parallel to, but offshore of, the Pacific Coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center.

Western Pacific:
No current tropical cyclone warnings. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Wednesday, October 8, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 1
Initial attack activity: Light (150 new fires)
New large fires: 0
Uncontained large fires: 4
Large fires contained: 1
States with large fires: KY, CA (2), OR (2) (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Florida: On October 8, 2008, the Governor of Florida requested a Major Disaster Declaration as a result of Hurricane Ike, beginning September 8, 2008, and continuing.  The Governor is specifically requesting Public Assistance for 6 counties (Collier, Escambia, Gulf, Manatee, Santa Rosa, and Sarasota) and Hazard Mitigation for the entire State.

Puerto Rico: On October 8, 2008, Amendment #2 for FEMA-1798-DR for Puerto Rico adds 11 municipalities for Individual Assistance and Public Assistance, 7 municipalities for Public Assistance and 6 municipalities for Public Assistance (already designated for Individual Assistance) 

North Carolina: On October 8, 2008, the President signed FEMA-1801-DR-North Carolina as a result of severe storms and flooding associated with Tropical Storm Hanna, September 4-15, 2008.   (FEMA HQ)