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National Situation Update: Thursday, October 2, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West
A storm moving in off the Pacific will produce precipitation and gusty winds over western Washington, western Oregon and northwest California. This storm will continue to move ashore through the weekend producing heavy rain and high winds to the Pacific Northwest and northern California. The only other precipitation today will be isolated thunderstorms in the Colorado Rockies and Wyoming's Absaroka Range. Temperatures will be above average over the interior west and near to below average west of the Cascades and Sierras. Highs are forecast to range from the 50s in the Cascades and higher Colorado Rockies to 105 in southwest Arizona.
Midwest:
A trough of low pressure will produce showers over the Great Lakes, northern Michigan and the northeast. The region will be unseasonably cool with highs ranging from the upper 40s on Michigan's Upper Peninsula to the low 80s in southwest Kansas. Frost Warnings are in effect for the central portion of the upper Plains.
South:
Under a large area of high pressure, much of the region will be dry and generally clear.  South Florida will have showers from a cold front in the Florida Strait. The region will be unseasonably cool with highs ranging from the 60s in the southern Appalachians to the low 90s in south-central Texas.
Northeast:
The circulation on the backside of the low centered over Maine will bring scattered showers to western and northern Pennsylvania, New York State and northern New England. High temperatures will range from the mid-50s in far northern New England and northern New York State to the low 70s in south-central Virginia. (NOAA, National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Puerto Rico Heavy Rainfall

• On October 1, 2008, the President approved a Major Disaster Declaration (FEMA-1798-DR-PR) for damage as a result of Severe Storms and Flooding, occurring September 21, 2008 and continuing.  The declaration is for Individual Assistance in 8 municipalities (Guayama, Humacao, Maunabo, Patillas, Ponce, Salinas, Santa Isabel and Yabucoa) and Hazard Mitigation for all municipalities.  The Federal Coordinating Officer (FCO) will be Justo Hernandez.
• PREMA EOC remains activated.
• A JFO location has been identified in the Municipality of Guaynabo.
• 10 Potential Disaster Recovery Centers have been identified.
• 8 shelters; population 134
• Potable Water: The PR Aqueduct Sewer Authority (PRASA) reported 8,846 customers without services; restoration date unknown (Region II SitRep, Oct1, FEMA HQ)

Federal / State Response for Hurricane Ike

FEMA Region VI
Louisiana

• GOSHEP activated at Level III (Emergency Operations).
• 5 fatalities; no injuries
• 5 shelters; population 223 (NSS)
• 11 DRCs and 10 MDRCs (7 open) located throughout affected areas.

Texas

• SEOC activated at Level I, 24/7
• 47 fatalities; no injuries
• 20 Shelters; population of 2,333 (NSS)
• 35,000 customers remain without power. (DOE  as of 6:00 p.m. EDT Sep 30)
• 3 state-run PODS remain open; FEMA continues to supply product to State run Resource Staging Areas (RSAs).
• 14 DRCs and 30 MDRCs, including 4 MRICs (22 open), located throughout affected areas.(FEMA DAD)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Storm Marie
At 5:00 am EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located about 735 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Marie is moving toward the west near 12 mph. This motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is possible today. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles from the center.

Elsewhere, the shower activity associated with the area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, has become a little better organized. This system has the potential to become a tropical depression today as it drifts westward.

Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity affecting United States Territories. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

• National Fire Activity as of Wednesday, October 01, 2008:
• National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 2
• Initial attack activity: Light (78)
• New large fires: 2
• Uncontained large fires: 7
• Large fires contained: 1
• States with large fires: CA, ID, OR and AZ  (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Arkansas: On October 1, 2008, the Governor requested a Major Disaster Declaration for the State of Arkansas as a result of severe storms, high winds and major flooding from Hurricane Ike from September 13 - 23, 2008.  The Governor is specifically requesting Public Assistance for 19 counties, Direct Federal Assistance and Hazard Mitigation statewide.

North Carolina: On October 1, 2008, the Governor requested a Major Disaster Declaration for the State of North Carolina as a result of Tropical Storm Hanna that occurred from September 4 - 15, 2008.  The Governor is specifically requesting Public Assistance for 3 counties (Beaufort, Brunswick and Person) and Hazard Mitigation statewide.

Kentucky: On October 1, 2008, the Governor requested a Major Disaster Declaration for the Commonwealth of Kentucky due to the remnants of Hurricane Ike on September 14, 2008.  The Governor is specifically requesting Public Assistance for 36 counties and Hazard Mitigation for the entire commonwealth.