Preface
| This report presents international energy projections through 2030,
prepared
by the Energy Information Administration, including outlooks
for major energy
fuels and associated carbon dioxide emissions. |
The International Energy Outlook 2008 (IEO2008) presents an assessment
by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international
energy markets through 2030. U.S. projections appearing in IEO2008 are
consistent with those published in EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO2008),
which was prepared using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). IEO2008 is provided as a service to energy managers and analysts, both in government
and in the private sector. The projections are used by international agencies,
Federal and State governments, trade associations, and other planners and
decisionmakers. They are published pursuant to the Department of Energy
Organization Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-91), Section 205(c).
Projections in IEO2008 are divided according to Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development members (OECD) and non-members (non-OECD).
There are three basic country groupings in the OECD: North America (United
States, Canada, and Mexico); OECD Europe; and OECD Asia (Japan, South Korea,
and Australia/New Zealand) (see Appendix K for complete regional definitions).
Non-OECD is divided into five separate regional subgroups: non-OECD Europe
and Eurasia, non-OECD Asia, Africa, Middle East, and Central and South
America. Russia is represented in non-OECD Europe and Eurasia; China and
India are represented in non-OECD Asia; and Brazil is represented in Central
and South America.
IEO2008 focuses exclusively on marketed energy. Non-marketed energy sources,
which continue to play an important role in some developing countries,
are not included in the estimates. The IEO2008 projections are based on
U.S. and foreign government laws in effect on January 1, 2008. The potential
impacts of pending or proposed legislation, regulations, and standards
are not reflected in the projections, nor are the impacts of legislation
for which the implementing mechanisms have not yet been announced.
The report begins with a review of world trends in energy demand and the
major macroeconomic assumptions used in deriving the IEO2008 projections,
along with the major sources of uncertainty in the forecast. The time frame
for historical data begins with 1980 and extends to 2005, and the projections
extend to 2030. High economic growth and low economic growth cases were
developed to depict a set of alternative growth paths for the energy projections.
The two cases consider higher and lower growth paths for regional gross
domestic product (GDP) than are assumed in the reference case. IEO2008 also includes a high price case and, alternatively, a low price case. The
resulting projections—and the uncertainty associated with international
energy projections in general—are discussed in Chapter 1, “World Energy
Demand and Economic Outlook.”
Regional projections for energy consumption by fuel— liquids (primarily
petroleum), natural gas, and coal— are presented in Chapters 2, 3, and
4, along with reviews of the current status of each fuel on a worldwide
basis. Chapter 5 discusses the projections for world electricity markets—including
nuclear power, hydropower, and other commercial renewable energy resources—
and presents forecasts of world installed generating capacity. Chapter
6 includes a detailed look at the world’s transportation energy use. Finally,
Chapter 7 discusses the outlook for global energy-related carbon dioxide
emissions.
Appendix A contains summary tables for the IEO2008 reference case projections
of world energy consumption, GDP, energy consumption by fuel, carbon dioxide
emissions, and regional population growth. Summary tables of projections
for the high and low economic growth cases are provided in Appendixes B
and C, respectively, and projections for the high and low price cases are
provided in Appendixes D and E, respectively. Reference case projections
of delivered energy consumption by end-use sector and region are presented in Appendix F. Appendix G contains
summary tables of projections for world liquids production in all cases.
Appendix H contains summary tables of reference case projections for installed
electric power capacity by fuel and regional electricity generation by
fuel. Appendix I includes a set of comparisons of projections from the
International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2007 with the IEO2008 projections. Comparisons of the IEO2008 and IEO2007 projections are also
presented in Appendix I. Appendix J describes the models used to generate
the IEO2008 projections, and Appendix K defines the regional designations
included in the report.
Objectives of the IEO2008 Projections
The projections in IEO2008 are not statements of what will happen, but
what might happen given the specific assumptions and methodologies used.
The projections provide an objective, policy-neutral reference case that
can be used to analyze international energy markets. As a policy-neutral
data and analysis organization, EIA does not propose, advocate, or speculate
on future legislative and regulatory changes.
Models are abstractions of energy production and consumption activities,
regulatory activities, and producer and consumer behavior. The projections
are highly dependent on the data, analytical methodologies, model structures,
and specific assumptions used in their development. Trends depicted in
the analysis are indicative of tendencies in the real world rather than
representations of specific real-world outcomes. Even where trends are
stable and well understood, the projections are subject to uncertainty.
Many events that shape energy markets are random and cannot be anticipated,
and assumptions concerning future technology characteristics, demographics,
and resource availability are necessarily uncertain. |
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