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2001 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON CONTINUES TREND FOR HEIGHTENED STORM ACTIVITY U.S. Goes Two Straight Seasons Without A Direct Hurricane Hit—A New Record
Tropical Storms v. Hurricanes Two other tropical storms—Barry and Gabrielle—hit the United States with just-below-hurricane strength. "Tropical storms are as serious as hurricanes because of their potential to wreak havoc with heavy rains that cause major floods," said Max Mayfield, NOAA's National Hurricane Center director. "It's important for residents not to just focus solely on a storm's wind speeds. The rains can kill, too." Accurate Outlooks Continue Although above average in the number of named storms, the 2001 season was the second consecutive year without a land-falling hurricane in the United States. Since Hurricane Irene in 1999, there have been 18 hurricanes that formed but did not strike the United States—a new record. "The respite in hurricane landfalls can be attributed partially to luck, and a persistent trough near the U.S. East Coast that helped steer away the storms," Mayfield said. Several of this year's storms stayed well to the south, moving westward through the Caribbean, following the easterly steering winds. Other potential hurricanes coming out of the deep tropics were weakened by unfavorable upper-level winds. "Considerable research by NOAA hurricane scientists in recent years has contributed substantially to our long-term forecast success," said Scott Gudes, NOAA's acting administrator. "This research has also improved our ability to monitor, diagnose, and predict the interactions between multi-decadal climate variations and the corresponding impacts on upcoming Atlantic hurricane activity." Population growth and development along the East and Gulf coasts, Kelly said, "point to a potential disaster when a powerful hurricane does inevitably strike. There is no way to tell if the steering patterns, which kept the hurricanes away from the U.S. in 2000 and 2001, will be around next season." Model Guidance Proves Critical "It took a Herculean effort by the U.S. Air Force (Reserves) and NOAA aircraft to gather extra reconnaissance data crunched in the numerical prediction models at NOAA's Environmental Modeling Center," Mayfield said. "The aircraft data and supplemental weather balloon launches by National Weather Service Southern Region forecast offices fed critical data to the models. The consistency of the model output for the storm's track allowed our team to make a very good forecast for Michelle to turn northeastward perilously near, but off-shore of, the south Florida coast." The National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. NWS operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy. Relevant Web Sites
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