Figure 5 Growth Cycles in the Transportation Output Index,,
,Deviation from PAT,Smoothed
Jan-80,3.5,
Feb-80,2.5,
Mar-80,0,
Apr-80,-1.1,-0.69
May-80,-1.4,-1.54
Jun-80,-2.7,-1.53
Jul-80,-2.9,-1.41
Aug-80,-2.3,-1.10
Sep-80,-1.3,-0.11
Oct-80,0.2,0.89
Nov-80,0.1,0.97
Dec-80,3.1,1.84
Jan-81,2.9,2.10
Feb-81,2.5,1.62
Mar-81,2,1.71
Apr-81,1.5,1.20
May-81,0,0.85
Jun-81,0.6,0.40
Jul-81,1.6,0.59
Aug-81,-0.6,0.25
Sep-81,0.9,-0.15
Oct-81,0.8,-0.27
Nov-81,-0.4,-0.47
Dec-81,0.5,-0.01
Jan-82,-1.9,-0.78
Feb-82,-1,-0.98
Mar-82,-0.2,-0.79
Apr-82,-0.5,-0.92
May-82,-1.2,-1.07
Jun-82,0.5,-1.03
Jul-82,-1,-0.92
Aug-82,-1.2,-0.99
Sep-82,-0.8,-0.98
Oct-82,-2.9,-1.25
Nov-82,-2.2,-1.17
Dec-82,-0.5,-1.08
Jan-83,-0.9,-1.11
Feb-83,-1.1,-0.60
Mar-83,0.1,-0.16
Apr-83,-1.9,0.06
May-83,-1,-0.15
Jun-83,1.2,-0.24
Jul-83,0.6,0.23
Aug-83,0.3,0.00
Sep-83,0.2,0.26
Oct-83,-1.7,-0.01
Nov-83,-0.5,0.36
Dec-83,-0.4,0.12
Jan-84,0.1,0.42
Feb-84,2.1,1.47
Mar-84,1.9,1.35
Apr-84,1.2,1.61
May-84,2.6,1.60
Jun-84,2.5,1.62
Jul-84,0.6,1.41
Aug-84,2.4,1.20
Sep-84,-0.3,1.32
Oct-84,0.5,0.68
Nov-84,0.3,0.24
Dec-84,-0.6,-0.49
Jan-85,-0.2,0.03
Feb-85,-2,-0.46
Mar-85,-1.9,-0.59
Apr-85,-0.4,-0.67
May-85,0.3,-0.82
Jun-85,-1.9,-0.75
Jul-85,-1.5,-0.79
Aug-85,-1.3,-1.33
Sep-85,-2.9,-1.71
Oct-85,-1.8,-1.13
Nov-85,-2.7,-1.51
Dec-85,-0.6,-1.36
Jan-86,1.1,-0.56
Feb-86,-0.4,-0.99
Mar-86,-1.1,-0.79
Apr-86,0.5,-0.35
May-86,-0.7,-0.16
Jun-86,-1.5,-0.18
Jul-86,1.8,0.23
Aug-86,0.6,0.21
Sep-86,1.1,0.63
Oct-86,0.9,1.18
Nov-86,-1,0.43
Dec-86,1.5,0.99
Jan-87,0.8,0.95
Feb-87,1.1,0.80
Mar-87,1.4,1.10
Apr-87,1.8,1.28
May-87,-1.1,1.19
Jun-87,0.2,0.58
Jul-87,2.7,0.52
Aug-87,-0.7,0.46
Sep-87,1.6,0.32
Oct-87,1.2,-0.02
Nov-87,0.8,0.70
Dec-87,3,1.73
Jan-88,0.9,0.43
Feb-88,4.4,1.74
Mar-88,2.5,1.96
Apr-88,1.8,1.88
May-88,0.9,1.50
Jun-88,2.6,1.24
Jul-88,0.1,0.52
Aug-88,1.4,0.67
Sep-88,2.3,1.42
Oct-88,-0.4,0.68
Nov-88,1.5,0.13
Dec-88,2.7,0.04
Jan-89,0.1,-0.18
Feb-89,-0.8,0.02
Mar-89,-1.1,-0.84
Apr-89,-2.8,-1.45
May-89,-1.7,-2.03
Jun-89,-0.9,-1.67
Jul-89,-4.5,-2.00
Aug-89,-1.4,-1.91
Sep-89,-1.1,-1.72
Oct-89,-2,-1.45
Nov-89,-0.4,-0.70
Dec-89,-0.8,-0.82
Jan-90,-0.1,-0.48
Feb-90,1,-0.33
Mar-90,1.6,0.01
Apr-90,0.2,0.51
May-90,1.6,0.90
Jun-90,0.7,1.27
Jul-90,0.8,0.77
Aug-90,3.6,0.79
Sep-90,1,0.23
Oct-90,2.5,0.92
Nov-90,1.9,-1.13
Dec-90,-2.1,-1.41
Jan-91,-0.6,-1.40
Feb-91,-3.5,-1.77
Mar-91,-5.9,-2.50
Apr-91,-2.6,-1.91
May-91,-1.5,-1.11
Jun-91,-5,-0.13
Jul-91,0,1.62
Aug-91,0.7,1.22
Sep-91,0.9,0.71
Oct-91,2.2,1.16
Nov-91,-1.1,-0.08
Dec-91,-2.1,0.14
Jan-92,-0.1,-0.57
Feb-92,0.2,-1.41
Mar-92,-1.3,-0.35
Apr-92,-1.4,0.03
May-92,-2,-0.58
Jun-92,-0.7,-0.75
Jul-92,2.9,-0.62
Aug-92,-0.9,-0.93
Sep-92,0.4,-0.50
Oct-92,-0.5,-0.87
Nov-92,-2.5,-1.77
Dec-92,-1.4,-1.47
Jan-93,-2,-2.24
Feb-93,-3.1,-2.20
Mar-93,-2.2,-2.51
Apr-93,-1.4,-2.41
May-93,-3.8,-2.30
Jun-93,-2.8,-2.38
Jul-93,-3.2,-2.01
Aug-93,-3.9,-1.61
Sep-93,-0.5,-1.11
Oct-93,-1.3,-1.67
Nov-93,0,-1.48
Dec-93,-0.9,-0.49
Jan-94,-4.2,-1.73
Feb-94,-3.3,-2.52
Mar-94,2,-0.55
Apr-94,-7.3,-0.66
May-94,-0.6,-0.32
Jun-94,1.1,0.03
Jul-94,-0.9,1.12
Aug-94,0.9,1.43
Sep-94,3.8,3.58
Oct-94,0.9,4.12
Nov-94,6,4.12
Dec-94,10.4,4.81
Jan-95,6.8,4.35
Feb-95,5.5,3.44
Mar-95,4.8,2.79
Apr-95,-1.6,0.71
May-95,2.7,0.57
Jun-95,1.1,0.86
Jul-95,-3.1,-0.30
Aug-95,2.1,-0.73
Sep-95,1,-0.52
Oct-95,-1.6,-0.43
Nov-95,-0.1,-0.58
Dec-95,-3.9,-1.28
Jan-96,-3,-1.64
Feb-96,-0.2,-1.26
Mar-96,-1.5,-1.04
Apr-96,-2.2,-1.03
May-96,0.4,-0.38
Jun-96,-3.8,-0.21
Jul-96,-1.6,-0.34
Aug-96,-1.4,-0.49
Sep-96,-2.3,-0.09
Oct-96,0.4,0.30
Nov-96,-1.3,-0.64
Dec-96,-1.5,0.61
Jan-97,1.2,0.54
Feb-97,0.5,0.27
Mar-97,-0.5,0.99
Apr-97,0.8,0.32
May-97,1,0.90
Jun-97,-1,1.25
Jul-97,1.4,0.91
Aug-97,0,1.53
Sep-97,3.8,0.89
Oct-97,4,2.60
Nov-97,-0.4,1.29
Dec-97,2.9,2.52
Jan-98,1.6,1.33
Feb-98,1.2,1.26
Mar-98,2,1.83
Apr-98,2,-1.92
May-98,0.5,-1.28
Jun-98,1.1,-1.60
Jul-98,0.5,-1.63
Aug-98,-3.1,-1.12
Sep-98,-1.5,-2.28
Oct-98,-0.3,-2.08
Nov-98,-1.4,-1.60
Dec-98,-0.5,22.11
Jan-99,-2.7,23.48
Feb-99,-0.9,21.91
Mar-99,3.8,23.12
Apr-99,0.5,24.28
May-99,-0.9,0.37
Jun-99,0.6,0.75
Jul-99,0,1.00
Aug-99,0.7,1.51
Sep-99,3.3,2.57
Oct-99,2.6,2.23
Nov-99,6.3,3.18
Dec-99,4.6,3.96
Jan-00,2.3,2.38
Feb-00,6.3,2.45
Mar-00,4.4,3.58
Apr-00,-2.3,1.53
May-00,5.3,1.81
Jun-00,3.2,2.22
Jul-00,-0.4,1.26
Aug-00,4.3,2.07
Sep-00,0.8,1.12
Oct-00,1.8,0.73
Nov-00,3.5,1.63
Dec-00,-3,0.28
Jan-01,3.3,1.01
Feb-01,-1.1,0.67
Mar-01,2.4,1.37
Apr-01,-0.4,0.18
May-01,4.9,1.61
Jun-01,-0.7,-0.63
Jul-01,0.3,-3.50
Aug-01,3.8,-1.57
Sep-01,-14.9,-4.54
Oct-01,-7.8,-5.11
Nov-01,-6.6,-5.09
Dec-01,-8.2,-5.73
Jan-02,-2.5,-3.86
Feb-02,-6.4,
Mar-02,-5.1,
Apr-02,-1.9,
Note: Shaded areas represent the NBER-defined growth slowdown in the U.S. economy (the trough for the latest growth slowdown has not been determined).,,