Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS)
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Table 4 - Probability (%) of Actual Departure Time (n = 8,.,22) Given a Reported Departure Time of m = 15

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Actual departure time n Probability of actual departure time given reported value of departure time m = 15
8 4.3
9 4.3
10 4.3
11 4.3
12 4.3
13 10.8
14 11.4
15 12.5
16 11.4
17 10.8
18 4.3
19 4.3
20 4.3
21 4.3
22 4.3