Figure 6 Filtered Components of the Late Arrivals Series: September 1987–August 2001 Generated by STAMP,,,,,,,,,, Date,Arrive late,Filtered trend,Filtered seasonal component,Filtered irregular component,,,,,, Sep-87,22.91274,,,,,,,,, Oct-87,19.60947,,,,,,,,, Nov-87,23.84278,,,,,,,,, Dec-87,33.48978,,,,,,,,, Jan-88,30.64676,,,,,,,,, Feb-88,25.23977,,,,,,,,, Mar-88,21.10317,,,,,,,,, Apr-88,17.32967,,,,,,,,, May-88,18.03329,,,,,,,,, Jun-88,15.61631,,,,,,,,, Jul-88,18.45969,,,,,,,,, Aug-88,17.04326,,,,,,,,, Sep-88,14.37269,21.94389083,-4.413217197,-8.54005,,,,,, Oct-88,16.59565,18.74820224,-3.288212977,2.192577483,,,,,, Nov-88,22.33825,19.43519938,-1.309606614,2.280227647 Dec-88,23.86316,20.14328268,5.249742257,-7.131532589 Jan-89,23.31793,17.89281505,4.64730572,-2.443693753 Feb-89,27.57885,17.11344535,2.370240333,7.652957893 Mar-89,30.38276,19.56084992,1.138780981,11.11514834 Apr-89,16.60511,23.10745546,-2.661935513,-3.518522762 May-89,20.53874,21.98957709,-2.947902721,0.901794394 Jun-89,27.82352,22.27487975,1.471812214,10.03576212 Jul-89,23.12581,25.44123802,-0.152692852,-1.480407882 Aug-89,25.36865,24.97425694,-0.104313632,2.773562042 Sep-89,20.3863,25.85193381,-4.413217197,-2.031174886 Oct-89,20.5397,25.09589784,-3.288212977,-0.370229086 Nov-89,21.97807,24.9634155,-1.309606614,-3.770204666 Dec-89,29.80139,23.61283974,5.249742257,-0.021159928 Jan-90,22.39621,23.60521792,4.64730572,-5.789513794 Feb-90,26.77955,21.51381352,2.370240333,1.425763881 Mar-90,23.45607,22.02899799,1.138780981,-1.948066068 Apr-90,17.78644,21.32588887,-2.661935513,1.814852124 May-90,19.1577,21.97990422,-2.947902721,-0.011391879 Jun-90,19.93781,21.97580421,1.471812214,-1.786842349 Jul-90,18.9418,21.33308555,-0.152692852,-1.268879259 Aug-90,21.4632,20.87650146,-0.104313632,1.191768337 Sep-90,15.58588,21.30600643,-4.413217197,-2.219615959 Oct-90,17.5806,20.45182717,-3.288212977,0.946702446 Nov-90,15.42839,20.81016574,-1.309606614,-5.536169456 Dec-90,29.6969,18.71223485,5.249742257,4.555100406 Jan-91,26.16719,20.44309352,4.64730572,2.575019201 Feb-91,18.15044,21.42281646,2.370240333,-7.711246374 Mar-91,19.99399,18.48887256,1.138780981,-1.260220607 Apr-91,16.62427,18.00969453,-2.661935513,3.443200298 May-91,16.49834,19.31789406,-2.947902721,-0.293318303 Jun-91,14.71894,19.20651799,1.471812214,-3.997201035 Jul-91,15.50569,17.68906541,-0.152692852,-0.790471556 Aug-91,16.72981,17.38889329,-0.104313632,-0.566096555 Sep-91,12.09603,17.17373696,-4.413217197,-1.217898932 Oct-91,16.60775,16.69408805,-3.288212977,3.383347407 Nov-91,17.28484,18.01460239,-1.309606614,0.151818612 Dec-91,20.04338,18.07390841,5.249742257,-5.617477414 Jan-92,18.60818,15.87596658,4.64730572,-1.286868106 Feb-92,16.5733,15.37209276,2.370240333,-1.78374914 Mar-92,19.09917,14.67368903,1.138780981,1.984843024 Apr-92,13.40281,15.45051627,-2.661935513,1.897289498 May-92,13.44588,16.19273034,-2.947902721,-0.517031308 Jun-92,18.96266,15.99053813,1.471812214,4.062465951 Jul-92,20.22239,17.5790596,-0.152692852,3.965860809 Aug-92,19.66137,19.13012342,-0.104313632,0.46384681 Sep-92,14.80782,19.31163632,-4.413217197,-0.607493769 Oct-92,14.18532,19.0685439,-3.288212977,-2.181724657 Nov-92,17.31979,18.20043,-1.309606614,-0.218148345 Dec-92,26.10514,18.11357205,5.249742257,1.338816402 Jan-93,22.37419,18.64720413,4.64730572,0.082667722 Feb-93,23.14702,18.68016934,2.370240333,2.07563748 Mar-93,26.39383,19.50783333,1.138780981,4.403707853 Apr-93,17.08054,21.26333602,-2.661935513,-0.388938001 May-93,12.89027,21.10833707,-2.947902721,-5.668078417 Jun-93,16.75369,18.84999905,1.471812214,-1.381109694 Jul-93,13.94117,18.29975299,-0.152692852,-3.561640327 Aug-93,15.87771,16.88055209,-0.104313632,-1.054842715 Sep-93,15.36926,16.46007016,-4.413217197,2.988357875 Oct-93,16.96058,17.66968142,-3.288212977,2.356400464 Nov-93,18.82447,18.61981531,-1.309606614,0.944427377 Dec-93,21.38893,19.00080969,5.249742257,-4.445397764 Jan-94,29.53374,17.20612057,4.64730572,8.733772847 Feb-94,26.16926,20.73322059,2.370240333,2.594728953 Mar-94,17.4361,21.78105344,1.138780981,-7.783983154 Apr-94,16.97289,18.63826602,-2.661935513,1.913068584 May-94,12.3694,19.41049815,-2.947902721,-3.873057833 Jun-94,18.23044,17.84733257,1.471812214,1.329392555 Jul-94,20.5469,18.38385694,-0.152692852,3.59001144 Aug-94,16.24546,19.83290023,-0.104313632,-3.303204471 Sep-94,12.04843,18.4992499,-4.413217197,-2.555685193 Oct-94,14.07329,17.45582125,-3.288212977,-0.453672005 Nov-94,19.2489,17.27111612,-1.309606614,2.688031983 Dec-94,20.74818,18.36592755,5.249742257,-3.809770528 Jan-95,26.17259,16.81336605,4.64730572,4.762646128 Feb-95,21.09096,18.75469269,2.370240333,-1.085650312 Mar-95,20.70214,18.31217927,1.138780981,-0.268309977 Apr-95,18.69618,18.20283215,-2.661935513,3.765986103 May-95,19.32279,19.7373701,-2.947902721,3.129177689 Jun-95,24.0586,21.01228262,1.471812214,3.748867332 Jul-95,19.91882,22.53963965,-0.152692852,-1.837519354 Aug-95,20.14525,21.79093424,-0.104313632,-1.103439929 Sep-95,14.41548,21.34123737,-4.413217197,-2.71365154 Oct-95,17.90736,20.22587485,-3.288212977,0.824348997 Nov-95,22.14985,20.56397745,-1.309606614,2.149229593 Dec-95,32.34025,21.44574667,5.249742257,5.270160038 Jan-96,37.33029,23.60889211,4.64730572,0 Feb-96,28.09632,23.60889211,2.370240333,1.285162911 Mar-96,24.06193,24.24569062,1.138780981,-2.653082277 Apr-96,19.81826,23.08557944,-2.661935513,-0.207161992 May-96,21.08157,22.99871015,-2.947902721,1.4014022 Jun-96,25.3321,23.57815353,1.471812214,2.04894813 Jul-96,24.71486,24.4213024,-0.152692852,1.223365704 Aug-96,25.30987,24.92391272,-0.104313632,1.055748923 Sep-96,21.30936,25.35746095,-4.413217197,0.526554076 Oct-96,22.81499,25.57509172,-3.288212977,0.466035011 Nov-96,22.08565,25.76736592,-1.309606614,-3.165990908 Dec-96,33.37434,24.46089499,5.249742257,2.907956347 Jan-97,31.59371,25.66127315,4.64730572,0.944204575 Feb-97,24.78564,26.04804024,2.370240333,-4.579327656 Mar-97,21.90197,24.15469695,1.138780981,-4.375835546 Apr-97,20.15363,22.34785624,-2.661935513,1.091498522 May-97,16.84206,22.79836408,-2.947902721,-2.602420804 Jun-97,23.86491,21.72436694,1.471812214,2.379601863 Jul-97,22.50311,22.70640518,-0.152692852,0.647667446 Aug-97,21.43534,22.97371125,-0.104313632,-0.993353451 Sep-97,14.96903,22.56367245,-4.413217197,-3.125795758 Oct-97,18.4526,21.26639548,-3.288212977,0.314022316 Nov-97,21.77757,21.39654711,-1.309606614,1.107850685 Dec-97,26.46439,21.85581165,5.249742257,-1.745328859 Jan-98,24.94751,21.13207142,4.64730572,-1.451940743 Feb-98,24.60783,20.53373926,2.370240333,1.011417556 Mar-98,24.14842,20.95371693,1.138780981,1.388345812 Apr-98,20.87773,21.52958189,-2.661935513,2.495719422 May-98,22.5176,22.56441367,-2.947902721,3.470478493 Jun-98,29.58356,24.00327596,1.471812214,5.524707249 Jul-98,21.14227,26.29381753,-0.152692852,-4.53579402 Aug-98,22.96688,24.41316165,-0.104313632,-0.916061405 Sep-98,21.06371,24.03329284,-4.413217197,1.73927763 Oct-98,18.25467,24.75775425,-3.288212977,-3.375251396 Nov-98,16.71439,23.35341152,-1.309606614,-5.931594315 Dec-98,26.78296,20.88500474,5.249742257,-0.173447655 Jan-99,32.33571,20.81280816,4.64730572,6.575702849 Feb-99,21.09442,23.53582831,2.370240333,-5.449920647 Mar-99,21.90998,21.26478196,1.138780981,-1.093130725 Apr-99,24.27056,20.80967194,-2.661935513,6.549956983 May-99,23.81475,23.53588254,-2.947902721,3.509574015 Jun-99,29.12348,24.99650839,1.471812214,3.473756711 Jul-99,28.93194,26.44222599,-0.152692852,3.240930224 Aug-99,23.88661,27.79111621,-0.104313632,-3.470354741 Sep-99,20.65286,26.3465907,-4.413217197,-1.214872144 Oct-99,19.94025,25.83900909,-3.288212977,-2.588652431 Nov-99,18.58512,24.75845138,-1.309606614,-4.954245292 Dec-99,22.00326,22.69012627,5.249742257,-6.520375623 Jan-00,26.25357,19.96741986,4.64730572,1.042379433 Feb-00,25.23988,20.40080432,2.370240333,2.395858207 Mar-00,23.01167,21.40218425,1.138780981,0.169168086 Apr-00,24.63007,21.4728366,-2.661935513,5.934337353 May-00,25.74623,23.95069587,-2.947902721,4.749710662 Jun-00,33.66186,25.93377965,1.471812214,6.670614512 Jul-00,29.69471,28.71887157,-0.152692852,1.198931848 Aug-00,30.03586,29.21946795,-0.104313632,1.202427786 Sep-00,21.90383,29.72156765,-4.413217197,-3.469920595 Oct-00,23.92658,28.26801271,-3.288212977,-0.975150129 Nov-00,27.37656,27.859841,-1.309606614,1.057796104 Dec-00,37.59103,28.30266532,5.249742257,0 Jan-01,24.76589,28.30266532,4.64730572,-8.593755131 Feb-01,27.33524,23.97398188,2.370240333,1.09498914 Mar-01,24.85218,24.46255416,1.138780981,-0.745847416 Apr-01,20.80052,24.1436073,-2.661935513,-0.683434078 May-01,18.59185,23.85542311,-2.947902721,-2.454626377 Jun-01,24.86393,22.82520741,1.471812214,0.59432158 Jul-01,21.94491,23.07425352,-0.152692852,-1.056371777 Aug-01,23.90744,22.63181871,-0.104313632,1.454984499 "Note: The first panel shows the observed series and the fitted trend, the second shows the seasonal component and the third shows the irregular or residual component. 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