Projections and Mitigation Costs

EPA has conducted economic analyses of the costs of reducing emissions from four key methane sources: landfills, natural gas and oil systems, coal mining, and livestock manure management. Unlike other greenhouse gases, methane can be used to produce energy since it is the major component (95 percent) of natural gas. Consequently, for many methane sources, opportunities exist to reduce emissions cost-effectively or at low cost by capturing the methane and using it as fuel. EPA’s voluntary programs assist companies in identifying these cost-effective reductions for specific sources. EPA also provides information on cost-effective mitigation options for ruminant livestock emissions.

Emission Estimates With and Without Voluntary Programs

Figure 1 shows the historical and projected emissions of methane in the U.S. from human-related sources. The graph shows emissions with and without the impact of voluntary programs designed to reduce emissions of methane from these sources. For more information on EPA voluntary programs and descriptions of cost-effective technologies and management practices for methane, go to Methane Voluntary Programs.

Figure 1

MMTCO2E = Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide Equivalent
Source: US Emissions Inventory 2002: Inventory Of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions And Sinks: 1990 - 2000 (2002); Climate Action Report (2002)

Future Emission Projections and Mitigation Costs

The following reports present a) cost analyses of mitigation technologies and management practices for methane emissions in the U.S. and b) methodologies for introducing mitigation options into the MARKAL framework. For analysis of methane mitigation costs outside the U.S., see the International Analyses Web site.

Report on the Methane Sub-Model for the USEPA National MARKAL Model (EPA Contract No. 68-W00-093) (January 2005). The Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Coalbed Methane Outreach Program has requested that the EPA US-national MARKAL (EPA-MARKAL) model be augmented to include the ability to track methane emissions from the energy system, and limited other sources (landfills and manure handling).

The methane sub-model in the EPA-MARKAL model has been developed and calibrated to perform the following functions:

• Provide projections of future methane emissions from the energy system out to 2030;
• Assess potential mitigation levels of methane emissions by energy system component;
• Evaluate the benefit and costs of policies, programs, and actions to reduce methane and/or Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions;
• Help to prioritize emission reduction opportunities in terms of cost-effectiveness and ancillary benefits, and
• Produce emission abatement cost curves.

Methane Tracking and Mitigation Options - EPA-CMOP (MS Excel, 1,021 KB)
Report on the Methane Sub-Model for the US EPA National MARKAL Model (PDF, 26 pp., 587 KB)

Note: The documentation on the EPA-MARKAL national model is pending, though being assembled by EPA-ORD. For information on the EPA-MARKAL national model contact Carol Shay (shay.carol@epamail.epa.gov).

Analysis of Methane Mitigation Options using the MARKAL Model for the US (EPA Contract No. 68-W00-093) (January 2005). This report describes analyses that were performed to demonstrate the efficacy of this new MARKAL Methane sub-model. These analyses investigate the effectiveness of various technologies and lay the groundwork for the formulation of policies for reducing methane emissions. A companion document (see above), developed in parallel with this report contains a full description of the Methane sub-model and its use. The Excel files contain the output for the modeling runs.

Calibration Data for Methane Emissions (MS Excel, 699 KB)
Analysis of Methane Mitigation Options using the MARKAL Model for the US (PDF, 20 pp., 391 KB)

Report on U.S. Methane Emissions 1990-2020: Inventories, Projections, and Opportunities for Reductions (EPA 430-R-99-013) (September 1999). This report addresses the historical emissions of CH₄ and presents EPA's forecast of emissions through 2020 for landfills, natural gas and oil systems, coal mines, manure management and enteric fermentation. This report also estimates the costs of reducing CH₄ emissions from landfills, natural gas systems, coal mines and manure management.

1. 2001 Update of the report with revised emission and cost estimates for all sectors (PDF, 19 pp., 383KB)
2. Cover, Executive Summary, and Introduction (PDF, 38 pp., 361 KB)
3. Landfills and Appendix II (PDF, 24 pp., 130 KB)
4. Natural Gas Systems and Appendix III (PDF, 34 pp., 145 KB)
5. Coal Mining and Appendix IV (PDF, 20 pp., 101 KB)
6. Livestock Manure Management and Appendix V (PDF, 26 pp., 130 KB)
7. Enteric Fermentation and Appendix VI (PDF, 18 pp., 80 KB)
8. Data files in Excel format: 2001 Updated emission and cost estimates (December 2001) (MS Excel, 739 KB)
   [Clicking on this link will launch the spreadsheet. To download the data, right click the link and save the file to your computer. Please contact us at (202) 569-9147 if you do not have access to Excel or are otherwise unable to open this document.]

Note: All documents have been reviewed in accordance with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's and the Office of Management and Budget's peer and administrative review policies and approved for publication. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation. To request a hard copy of any of the reports call the Energy Star hotline at 1-888-STAR YES.

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