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000 FXUS62 KTAE 130648 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 245 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH AND CENTER OVER THE SE CORNER OF THE U.S TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TODAY...WE WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROF IS STILL EVIDENT OFF THE GA/FL COAST WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING INLAND OVER SE GA AND NE FL. THIS ALONG WITH REMNANT VORT ENERGY OVER OUR AREA WILL JUSTIFY THE INCLUSION OF LOW END CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER...AS WITH THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER OF SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO WEAKEN SO A RETURN TO PARTLY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE THROUGH SHORT TERM BECOMES ZONAL ON THURSDAY ANCHORED BY A STRONG EAST-WEST RIDGE FROM THE BAHAMAS TO BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE A TROUGH DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR GA DROPS SWD. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS IT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE EASTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER THAN GFS WITH DEEPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY WITH A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR CWA DURING THE DAY. THE GFS SOLUTION IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER WITH DECENT UPPER DYNAMICS OFFSET BY A MOISTURE STARVED FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR MASS FILTERING IN ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH COULD YIELD RED FLAG FIRE CONDITIONS. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. THUS,ISOLD POPS FRI-SUN WITH FRONT...OTHERWISE NO POPS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH SAT, FOLLOWED BY MORE SEASONAL TEMPS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS COOLEST AIR SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST. && .MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MARINE AREA RESULTING IN CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SINKS SOUTH OVER THE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BUT ELEVATE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .AVIATION...DEEP EASTERLY WIND FLOW AROUND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT CURRENT LOW CLOUD DECK TO PERSIST DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH IFR CEILINGS LIKELY UNTIL AROUND 15Z. THEN...SLOW LIFTING WITH MVFR CIGS TO LINGER UNTIL AROUND 18Z. VFR WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS POSSIBLE ALL TERMINALS 18Z UNTIL AT LEAST SUNSET. && .FIRE WEATHER...THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY DIP BELOW 35 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 84 64 87 60 89/ 30 10 0 0 0 PANAMA CITY 85 68 87 64 89/ 30 10 0 0 0 DOTHAN 83 62 87 57 88/ 30 10 0 0 0 ALBANY 82 62 87 56 88/ 30 10 0 0 0 VALDOSTA 82 64 86 58 89/ 30 10 0 0 0 CROSS CITY 86 63 88 59 88/ 30 10 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA. && $$ BARRY/BLOCK