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000 FXUS62 KTAE 120000 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 800 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2008 .UPDATE...WATER VAPOR/UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW SEVERAL FEATURES THIS EVENING: A DEEP AMPLITUDE LOW/TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE INTERMTN WEST, A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES TO THE NRN GOMEX, AND A MOISTURE PLUME FROM HURRICANE NORBERT STREAMING NEWD INTO THE PLAINS. CLOSER TO HOME, A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE GA COAST. DRIER AIR ALOFT WAS FILTERING SWD ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WAS CONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS (BELOW 700 MB) DUE TO MODERATE E-NE FLOW. WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT INTERACTED WITH THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME BRIEF, LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OVER OUR GA ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RADAR TRENDS THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT, WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE GA ZONES, WITH SILENT 10S ELSEWHERE. && .AVIATION...ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW CIGS LOOKS IN ORDER WITH TERMINALS IN COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ALREADY DROPPING INTO THE LOW MVFR RANGE, AND THESE LOW CIGS ARE ALREADY SPREADING SOUTHWESTWARD. GFS/NAM GUIDANCE ALONG WITH SREF PROBABILITIES SUPPORT MVFR CIGS ALL SITES OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT OUR EASTERN TERMINALS, MAINLY AFTER 08Z SUNDAY. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 15Z, WITH ALL SITES LIKELY VFR BY 18Z. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOCALLY GUSTY UP TO 18KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. && .MARINE...LATEST OBS INDICATE NELY WINDS 10-15 KTS/2-3 FT SEAS NEAR SHORE AND 15-20 KTS/3-4 FT SEAS OFFSHORE. SHORT RANGE MODEL PROGS SUGGEST THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT, WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS. NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED FOR THE EVENING FCST UPDATE. && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ JAMSKI/GODSEY