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000 FXUS62 KTAE 131756 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 155 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2008 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...THE TROUGH OUT WEST SPLITS WITH THE LEAD LOW/SHORT WAVE ACCELERATING EWD ALONG THE NRN TIER, WITH THE TRAILING LOW/SHORT WAVE SHEARING OUT AS IT EMERGES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL EVENTUALLY FLATTEN THE ERN CONUS RIDGE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL WASH OUT TONIGHT, WITH THE CONVERGENT FLOW DIMINISHING. AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL END AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. THEN THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT SETTLES SWD TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH NELY WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING. THE NELY WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. THE RESULT WILL BE NIL POPS WITH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS (85 TO 90) AND PLEASANTLY COOL MORNING LOWS (MID 50S TO LOW 60S). && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE THROUGH SHORT TERM BECOMES ZONAL ON THURSDAY ANCHORED BY A STRONG EAST-WEST RIDGE FROM THE BAHAMAS TO BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE A TROUGH DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR GA DROPS SWD. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS IT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE EASTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER THAN GFS WITH DEEPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY WITH A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR CWA DURING THE DAY. THE GFS SOLUTION IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER WITH DECENT UPPER DYNAMICS OFFSET BY A MOISTURE STARVED FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR MASS FILTERING IN ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH COULD YIELD RED FLAG FIRE CONDITIONS. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE SEASONAL TEMPS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE COOLEST AIR SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. && .MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MARINE AREA RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MARINE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BUT INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .AVIATION...MORNING OVERCAST IS BREAKING UP AT MOST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE KVLD AND KABY WHERE A STEADY BKN CU DECK CONTINUES TO STREAM IN OFF THE ATLANTIC. SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. DO EXPECT SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT THE EXTENT AND DURATION SHOULD BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA STARTING TONIGHT AND REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RH VALUES MAY DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS ON WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER DURATIONS DO NOT NECESSITATE WATCHES ATTM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 64 87 59 88 56 / 20 0 0 0 0 PANAMA CITY 69 87 65 88 62 / 20 0 0 0 0 DOTHAN 63 86 56 87 56 / 20 0 0 0 0 ALBANY 62 85 56 88 56 / 10 0 0 0 0 VALDOSTA 63 86 57 88 55 / 10 0 0 0 0 CROSS CITY 65 87 59 88 56 / 20 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY ALL ZONES. && $$ JAMSKI/CAMP/BARRY