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000 FXUS62 KTAE 121316 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 915 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008 .UPDATE...WATER VAPOR/UPPER AIR FEATURES THIS MORNING ARE A DEEP AMPLITUDE, POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH IN THE WEST, AND SHARP RIDGE IN THE EAST. MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM NORBERT OVER NWRN MEXICO CONTINUES TO STREAM NEWD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. CLOSER TO HOME, A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GA/SC COAST SWD ALONG THE FL EAST COAST. CONVERGENT FLOW IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS TO THE NE OF THE CWA, BUT EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO THE W-SW INTO MAINLY THE GA ZONES TODAY. THE 12Z TAE SOUNDING SHOWED A CONTINUED MOISTENING OF THE LOW-MID LEVELS DUE TO THE PROLONGED ELY FLOW. INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. TWEAKED POPS AND NUDGED WINDS UPWARD TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS. && .AVIATION...EASTERLY FLOW ADVECTING IN A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. ALL TERMINALS CURRENTLY WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHRA, ESPECIALLY FOR KVLD AND KABY. CIGS MAY LIFT ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE MVFR/IFR CIGS REDEVELOP TONIGHT. && .MARINE...RECENT OBS INDICATED NELY WINDS 15-20 KTS AND GUSTY, WITH 2-4 FT SEAS NEAR SHORE AND 4-6 FT SEAS OFFSHORE. BASED ON TRENDS AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, WILL INCLUDE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR THE NEAR SHORE LEGS ON THE MORNING FCST UPDATE. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SWD TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, WILL NEED TO CONSIDER A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE AFTERNOON FCST PACKAGE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 82 68 84 65 / 30 20 20 10 PANAMA CITY 82 71 83 69 / 20 20 20 10 DOTHAN 77 65 82 62 / 30 20 20 10 ALBANY 77 67 82 62 / 40 30 20 10 VALDOSTA 80 68 82 64 / 40 20 20 10 CROSS CITY 85 68 85 64 / 30 20 20 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ JAMSKI/CAMP