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000 FXUS62 KTAE 160659 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 259 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2008 .SYNOPSIS...A SHORT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES HAS FLATTENED THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH HAS SETTLED SWD TO A POSITION OVER THE ERN GOMEX AND FL. THIS LEAVES ZONAL FLOW FOR THE TIME BEING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE COUNTRY. 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE SWWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND ERN TX. THE SURFACE HIGH HAS SETTLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA CREATING CALM WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WITH THE WEAKER GRADIENT, THE ELY SURGE IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH A BRIEF PEAK AROUND 15 KT BEING OBSERVED AS THE SURGE PUSHES WWD. GOES FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY SHOWS FOG DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF NE FL AND PARTS OF SE GA. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SAT. SREF PROBABILITIES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT CHARTS FROM THE RUC AND NAM INDICATE THAT THE FOG OUT E WILL SPREAD W INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME, WE EXPECT AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO IMPACT OUR S CENTRAL GA ZONES AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND, WITH PATCHY FOG FURTHER W IN THE BIG BEND. THIS FOG SHOULD BURN OFF RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE RAPIDLY ONCE AGAIN TODAY IN THE IN SITU DRY AIRMASS. SOME AREAS WILL APPROACH RECORD HIGHS FOR OCT 16, WITH TLH HAVING THE BEST SHOT. A FEW OF TODAY`S RECORDS FOLLOW. TALLAHASSEE 90 IN 1990 APALACHICOLA 88 IN 1998 PANAMA CITY 90 IN 1985 ALBANY 91 IN 1985 TONIGHT AND THU WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. THE FRONT TO OUR NW WILL SAG SEWD INTO OUR AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND MOVES EWD ACROSS THE ERN U.S. FROM FRI INTO SAT. FRI POPS RANGE FROM 50 ACROSS OUR EXTREME NWRN ZONES TO 10 OR LESS IN DIXIE COUNTY. LOOK FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM VLD TO TLH TO PFN. THERE IS MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT WITH POPS RANGING FROM 40 N TO 20 S. BY SAT MORNING, THE FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA AND WE KEEP POPS IN ONLY OVER THE ERN GULF WATERS. SAT AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE LOW HUMIDITY AND VERY PLEASANT TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S N TO LOWER 80S SE. .LONG TERM...SAT NIGHT THROUGH THU. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH ON SATURDAY. THE PATTERN FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS IN THE MODELS JUST 24 HOURS AGO. THE MID LEVEL TROF MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY. IT IS AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST WHEN THINGS REALLY BEGIN TO APPEAR INTERESTING. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE EURO WANTED TO STALL THE PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY...KEEPING A PIECE OF ENERGY CUT OFF OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE 16/00Z GFS AND THE 15/12Z EURO...THIS NO LONGER APPEARS TO BE THE CASE. THE EURO IS STILL WANTING TO SLOW THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN DOWN SLIGHTLY...BUT NOT UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT...THIS ONE LOOKING A LITTLE STRONGER... MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY EVENING. THE GFS HAS SUPPORTED A SOLUTION SUCH AS THIS FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...SO WILL TREND THE LONG TERM FORECAST TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS LOWER THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES IN THE MODELS. IF ADDITIONAL RUNS INDICATE THE FAST MOVING HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL INCREASE. && .MARINE...TODAY THROUGH MON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ALLOWING THE ELY FLOW TO VEER TO ONSHORE IN A WEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR A SIMILAR TREND ON FRI. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO OFFSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT AND PICK UP TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS BY SAT EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE A BIT DURING THE DAY ON SUN BEFORE RETURNING TO SCEC FOR SUN NIGHT. NE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA FOR MON. && .AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. CI IS SPREADING EAST FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER TRANSPARENT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING IS WITH RESPECT TO VSBY RESTRICTIONS. 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE FOG/LOW STRATUS SPREADING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA TOWARD THE VLD TERMINAL. THIS COULD END UP IMPACTING VLD BEFORE DAYBREAK...SO WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF AN LIFR TEMPO THERE. ELSEWHERE...MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS LOOK GOOD PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AFTER 14Z...ALL SITES WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ONLY A FEW-SCT CU AROUND 5KFT WITH PASSING CI AT 25KFT. && .FIRE WEATHER...WE ARE EXPECTING SUFFICIENT DURATIONS OF RH BELOW 35 PERCENT TO MEET RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR OUR 4 ERN FL BIG BEND ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL FOR JACKSON COUNTY IN THE FL PANHANDLE AS WELL AND THAT ZONE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY THE DAY SHIFT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 89 57 85 60 80 / 00 05 20 30 10 PANAMA CITY 87 65 84 63 80 / 00 10 20 30 05 DOTHAN 88 59 79 56 77 / 00 10 40 40 05 ALBANY 89 58 81 57 77 / 00 10 40 40 05 VALDOSTA 89 57 85 59 78 / 00 05 20 30 10 CROSS CITY 90 56 89 61 81 / 00 05 10 20 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...RED FLAG WARNING 18-2Z TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DIXIE...LAFAYETTE...MADISON AND TAYLOR. GM...NONE. && $$ AVIATION/LONG TERM...GODSEY REST OF DISCUSSION...WOOL