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000 FXUS62 KTAE 151834 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 240 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2008 .SYNOPSIS...THE PERSISTENT SFC RIDGE TO OUR N REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE CWA AS IT SLOWLY HEADS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW PASSING FAIR WX CU. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXES...BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING FOR ANY WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS TO MATERIALIZE. && .SHORT TERM...THE STACKED RIDGING WHICH HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE REGION FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24-36 HRS...BEFORE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT FINALLY APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER ON FRIDAY. ALL OF THE DEEP LAYER WARM AND DRY AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SE U.S. WILL NOT BE DISPLACED VERY EASILY...WHICH WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT POPS OR QPF TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. FURTHERMORE...THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE THE BENEFIT OF MUCH LIFT...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...OR RETURN FLOW MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO EXPECT DECREASING POPS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE CWA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF ANY THUNDER. ALSO...HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW COULD BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR...AS TLH HAS A RECORD OF 90 DEGREES ON OCT. 16. && .LONG TERM...SAT THROUGH WED. LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE GENERALLY QUIET. BOTH THE 15/00Z GFS AND THE 14/12Z EURO ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE UPPER TROF THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL MOVE EAST OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY LATE MONDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A TROF ON THE WEST AND EAST COAST WITH A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS. UP UNTIL THIS POINT...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN HAD BEEN QUITE PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER...AS THIS MID LEVEL RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES INTO WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN IS PREDICTED THE STALL...TO A GREATER DEGREE IN THE EURO...WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN OMEGA TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. IF THE LATEST GFS IS CORRECT...THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN QUICKER WITH A POTENT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL VALUES FOR MID OCTOBER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MID AND UPPER 80S OF LAST WEEKEND AND THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK WILL BE A DISTANT MEMORY BY NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE...THE ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS HAVE HELD ON A BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...BUT ARE REMAINING BELOW SCEC LEVELS. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THU AND FRI UNDER THE SFC RIDGE...BEFORE CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SAT. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH A FEW-SCT CU FIELD DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM KPFN TO KTLH AND KVLD. SKIES WILL CLEAR ONCE AGAIN WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING SOME AREAS OF MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS WITH LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG. CURRENT TAFS ARE SHOWING 3-5SM AT ALL TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF KPFN...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR VIS POSSIBLE. WILL RE-EVALUATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THE BRIEF FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...THIS MORNING`S 12 UTC TAE SOUNDING SHOWED A FAIRLY SHARP POCKET OF DRY AIR AROUND 985 MB...SO EXPECTED SOME SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA TO OCCUR ONCE TEMPS REACHED THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT THUS FAR...THIS HAS ONLY TAKEN PLACE IN MARIANNA WHICH HAS ALREADY VERIFIED WITH SUB 35% RH AND GREATER THAN 75 DISPERSION. AM BECOMING A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE NE FLOW FROM JAX MAY BE MODIFYING SOME OF THIS DRY AIR...BUT STILL HAVE A FEW HOURS TO GO FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES TO REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH 35%. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 55 89 58 85 60 / 0 0 05 20 20 PANAMA CITY 60 87 63 84 63 / 0 0 05 30 20 DOTHAN 57 89 61 81 56 / 0 0 10 40 20 ALBANY 56 89 61 82 57 / 0 0 05 40 20 VALDOSTA 56 90 57 86 60 / 0 0 05 30 20 CROSS CITY 55 90 57 87 61 / 0 0 05 20 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 22Z FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GADSDEN...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...LEON. GM...NONE. && $$ AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA PUBLIC/MARINE...GOULD LONG TERM...GODSEY