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000 FXUS62 KTAE 140519 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 120 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL TRANSITION TO BECOME NEARLY ZONAL BY THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST WILL FLATTEN AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE ELONGATING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE GULF THURSDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS MORNING WILL ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD COVERING THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE U.S. DURING THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY BUT MODELS SHOW ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HOLDING OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER THURSDAY EVENING. THUS...THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL ALSO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. MAX TEMPS EACH DAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE. AT NIGHT... IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...ZONAL FLOW DURING END OF SHORT TERM PERIOD BEGINS TO AMPLIFY EARLY FRIDAY AS A PERSISTENT STACKED RIDGE CENTERED OVER SRN GA SHIFT S OF CWA IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH THAT DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY (AIDED BY UPPER SHORT WAVE THAT TRAVERSES THE SOUTHEAST DURING DAYTIME) AS IT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD EASTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LAST TWO MODEL RUNS DIFFER FROM 24 HRS AGO WITH MODESTLY HIGHER UPPER DYNAMICS AND A MORE POTENT FRONT CROSSING THE CWA ON FRIDAY BRINGING PRECIPITATION NW-SE AND ACROSS CWA DAYTIME (NW HALF) THRU LATE NIGHT (SE HALF). MODELS THEN SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO REGION STARTING ON SAT WITH A COOLER AND INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR MASS (NW FLOW) FILTERING IN SAT AND CONTINUING INTO TUES. SO EXTENDED WILL SHOW SCT POPS FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT...AND NIL FOR REMAINING PERIODS. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO ON FRIDAY BUT DROP WELL BELOW CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND AS A COOLER AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPS THEN INCH UP TO SEASONABLE TEMPS MON AND TUES AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODIFY. && .MARINE...ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 20 KTS GUSTING NEAR 30 KTS AND SEAS AROUND 7 FEET AT THE BUOYS. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MARINE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BUT POSSIBLY INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .AVIATION...SATELLITE PIX SHOW THAT A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER S CAROLINA/GEORGIA WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE LOCAL AREA FROM NE-SW THROUGH TODAY. LATEST OBS INDICATE THAT LOWER STRATUS NOT DEVELOPING UPSTREAM LIKE LAST NIGHT AND THIS CONFIRMED BY 00Z GFS. SO AM INCLINED TO BACK OFF ON INHERITED PREDAWN IFR VSBYS/ CIGS AT GA TERMINALS. STILL...THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING FOR MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY MVFR VSBYS...MAINLY KABY AND KVLD AND IFR CIGS AT KVLD THRU 14Z. THEN...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE PAST SUNSET. AIRMASS SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH TO PREVENT CIGS/VSBY RESTRICTIONS TUES NIGHT INTO WED. && .FIRE WEATHER...A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY AND REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RH VALUES MAY DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS ON WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER DURATIONS DO NOT NECESSITATE WATCHES ATTM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 89 59 89 55 89/ 0 0 0 0 0 PANAMA CITY 87 65 88 62 88/ 0 0 0 0 0 DOTHAN 86 56 87 56 89/ 0 0 0 0 0 ALBANY 85 56 88 55 90/ 0 0 0 0 0 VALDOSTA 85 58 88 56 89/ 0 0 0 0 0 CROSS CITY 87 59 88 56 90/ 0 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING ALL ZONES. && $$ BARRY/BLOCK