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000 FXUS62 KTAE 161846 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 250 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2008 .SYNOPSIS...THE FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF FOG AND LOW CIGS (WITH SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG) WHICH FORMED ACROSS FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AND MUCH OF NE FL AND SE GA OVERNIGHT FINALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION BY 1130 AM EDT THIS MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS UNDER THE STACKED RIDGE ARE NOW THE RULE ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS ALREADY REACHING THE LOWER 80S OVER MANY AREAS AS OF 12 PM...WITH HIGHS STILL POSSIBLY NEARING THE 90 DEGREE MARK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ...WINDS HAVE FINALLY DROPPED TO AROUND THE 10 KT RANGE OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS...BUT SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING BETWEEN 3-4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. && .SHORT TERM...THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY ABOUT TO COME TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION...AS A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING. SINCE THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS BEEN SO STRONG ACROSS THE SE U.S....THE MODELS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE SAME TIME...HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL DIG SE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE CAROLINAS IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE IMPRESSIVE THROUGH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS...AND WHILE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE IMPROVING DYNAMICS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUGGEST THE RE-INCLUSION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA...WITH LOW TEMPS POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON SUNDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM...SUN THROUGH THU. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH ON SATURDAY. THE PATTERN FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS IN THE MODELS JUST 24 HOURS AGO. THE MID LEVEL TROF MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY. IT IS AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST WHEN THINGS REALLY BEGIN TO APPEAR INTERESTING. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE EURO WANTED TO STALL THE PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY...KEEPING A PIECE OF ENERGY CUT OFF OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE 16/00Z GFS AND THE 15/12Z EURO...THIS NO LONGER APPEARS TO BE THE CASE. THE EURO IS STILL WANTING TO SLOW THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN DOWN SLIGHTLY...BUT NOT UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT...THIS ONE LOOKING A LITTLE STRONGER... MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY EVENING. THE GFS HAS SUPPORTED A SOLUTION SUCH AS THIS FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...SO WILL TREND THE LONG TERM FORECAST TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS LOWER THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES IN THE MODELS. IF ADDITIONAL RUNS INDICATE THE FAST MOVING HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL INCREASE. && .MARINE...SEAS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO DROP BELOW THE 3-4 FT RANGE WELL OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEY SHOULD DROP STEADILY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL PICK UP AGAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...WITH SCEC CONDITIONS LIKELY BY THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLE SCA LEVELS DURING SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. && .AVIATION...CLEAR TO SCATTERED SKIES WILL DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR FRIDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN BE FOG AND/OR STRATUS...MAINLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CWA IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. IFR AND VLIFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AGAIN. && .FIRE WEATHER...THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE SE FL BIG BEND LOOKS IN DECENT SHAPE WITH 2 HRS BELOW 35% AT PERRY (40J) THUS FAR. A FEW SPOTS TO THE WEST OF THE WARNING MAY DROP BELOW 35% AS WELL...BUT 4 HR DURATIONS SHOULD NOT BE MET. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 57 86 62 81 51 / 00 20 50 10 00 PANAMA CITY 67 83 63 80 56 / 00 20 50 05 00 DOTHAN 60 82 58 78 49 / 00 40 50 05 00 ALBANY 61 84 59 80 49 / 00 30 50 10 00 VALDOSTA 58 87 59 79 51 / 00 20 40 10 00 CROSS CITY 58 88 63 82 54 / 00 10 30 10 00 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 22Z TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DIXIE...LAFAYETTE...MADISON AND TAYLOR. GM...NONE. && $$ AVIATION/FIRE WX...WATSON/GIBBS PUBLIC/MARINE...GOULD LONG TERM...GODSEY