000
FXUS62 KTAE 150648
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
248 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2008

.SYNOPSIS...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN FEATURES A LOW SPINNING WELL E OF
NC OVER THE NW ATLANTIC AND A BIG RIDGE OVER THE SERN U.S. WITH
HIGHEST HEIGHTS OVER GA. UPSTREAM, WE SEE A SHORT WAVE HAS WORKED
ITS WAY THROUGH THE BASE OF A TROUGH AND IS NOW LIFTING NEWD ACROSS
ERN CO. ADDITIONAL ENERGY IS APPROACHING THE PAC NW COAST. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN STATES. A COLD FRONT IS
PUSHING EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EXTENDS SWWD TO THE OHIO VALLEY.
FROM THERE, THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT E
WINDS STARTING TO GO CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRI.
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL SETTLE SWD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPS TODAY AND AGAIN ON THU.
LOOK FOR UPPER 80S BOTH DAYS WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY REACHING 90.
WITH THE DRY AIRMASS NOW FIRMLY IN PLACE, OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL DROP
BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS TONIGHT WITH MOST INLAND AREAS DIPPING
TO THE MID 50S. COULD SEE A BIT OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER S CENTRAL GA
AND ERN FL BIG BEND ZONES EARLY THU MORNING. BY THU NIGHT, THE RIDGE
WILL BE S OF THE AREA OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A TROUGH BEGINS
DEEPENING ACROSS THE ERN U.S. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN ON
FRI AS ENERGY CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW COAST DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. THIS AMPLIFYING PATTERN WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONT INTO
DIXIE. THE NAM IS SLOWER TO BRING THIS FRONT SEWD THAN THE PREFERRED
GFS. WE ACCEPTED THE MAV POPS FOR THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH RANGE
FROM CHANCE ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO SILENT 10S
OVER THE SERN FL BIG BEND. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE USED FOR VLD
TO TLH TO PFN. THIS FORECAST INDICATES A SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT
IN POPS FOR OUR SERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...FRI NIGHT THROUGH WED.
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE GENERALLY QUIET. BOTH THE
15/00Z GFS AND THE 14/12Z EURO ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE
UPPER TROF THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL MOVE EAST OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY LATE MONDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A TROF ON THE WEST AND EAST
COAST WITH A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS. UP
UNTIL THIS POINT...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN HAD BEEN QUITE PROGRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...AS THIS MID LEVEL RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES INTO
WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN IS PREDICTED THE STALL...TO A GREATER
DEGREE IN THE EURO...WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN OMEGA TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN
SETTING UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. IF THE
LATEST GFS IS CORRECT...THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN QUICKER
WITH A POTENT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NORMAL VALUES FOR MID OCTOBER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MID AND UPPER
80S OF LAST WEEKEND AND THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK WILL BE A
DISTANT MEMORY BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SUN.
WINDS ARE RUNNING IN THE EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE AS OF 06Z AND WE
PLAN TO LEAVE THE HEADLINE IN FOR ONE MORE PACKAGE. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
DROPS SWD. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH ELY FLOW TONIGHT FOR SOME
NOCTURNAL SURGE, BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AOB 15 KT. AFTER THAT LOOK
FOR LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS FOR THU AND FRI. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
OFFSHORE BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE
E ONCE AGAIN FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 05Z WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF CYCLE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE...EXCEPT JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WHEN
SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY FORM AND DROP VSBYS INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT PFN. AFTER 14Z...ALL SITES VFR WITH SKIES
GENERALLY SKC TO FEW050 BY 21Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS GOING CALM AND SKIES STAYING CLEAR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER...RELATIVELY HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO OR JUST BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 14 MPH TODAY WILL CREATE HIGH
ENOUGH DISPERSIONS TO REQUIRE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE INTERSTATE
10 COUNTIES FROM LEON WESTWARD TO WALTON. LIGHTER WINDS ON THURSDAY
WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CHECK FUTURE MODEL RUNS IN THE EVENT LONGER
DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE INDICATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  87  54  89  55  86 /  00  00  00  05  20
PANAMA CITY  86  65  89  64  85 /  00  00  00  05  20
DOTHAN       89  57  88  59  81 /  00  00  00  10  40
ALBANY       88  55  87  59  84 /  00  00  00  05  30
VALDOSTA     87  56  88  58  85 /  00  00  00  05  20
CROSS CITY   89  56  90  56  89 /  00  00  00  05  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.

GA...NONE.

FL...RED FLAG WARNING 18-22Z FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
GADSDEN...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...LEON.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION/FIRE WX/LONG TERM...GODSEY
REST OF DISCUSSION...WOOL