000
FXUS62 KTAE 131325
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
925 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008

.UPDATE...THE MORNING WATER VAPOR/500 MB COMPOSITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR MID-OCTOBER, WITH A DEEP TROUGH AXIS
STRETCHING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE FOUR CORNERS, AND A SHARP AXIS
FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA TO THE SERN STATES. SIMILAR TO PAST
SOUNDINGS, AMPLE MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE (SURFACE TO 700 MB), WITH ELY FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE
COLUMN. PRECIP WATER REMAINED UNCHANGED (1.5") AND INSTABILITY WAS
WEAK. SURFACE FEATURES INCLUDE A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SE COAST AND
A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE WV/VA BORDER. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS IS MAINTAINING A MODERATE ELY FLOW.
WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR THUS FAR HAVE BEEN AVERAGING AROUND 10 KTS.
A REGIONAL RADAR VIEW SHOWS SOME COASTAL SHOWERS MOVING INLAND INTO
SERN GA.

FOR THE MORNING UPDATE, HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR AL AND FL ZONES TO 20
PERCENT. ALSO, WITH INSOLATION AND MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICTING
MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON, ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE
WX GRIDS. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
TODAY. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS AND SKY GRIDS, BUT WILL HAVE
NO IMPACT TO THE ZONES.

&&

.MARINE...ELY WINDS WERE SUSTAINED AROUND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KTS. SEAS RANGED FROM 2-FT FEET NEAR SHORE TO 5-7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE.
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE AS THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS THESE CONDITIONS TODAY. NO CHANGES TO THE
MORNING FCST. PANHANDLE BEACH CAMS SHOW INCREASING WIND WAVE ACTION,
WITH 1-2 BREAKERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE, WITH A HIGH
RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

&&

.AVIATION...EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW CLOUDS. REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW HAVE MOVED WEST OF THE
AREA, SO THE FORCING FOR THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECLINE.
EXPECT TO SEE CURRENT MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST TERMINALS. THEREAFTER, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ALOFT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  84 64 87 60 89/ 30 10 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY  85 68 87 64 89/ 30 10 0 0 0
DOTHAN       83 62 87 57 88/ 30 10 0 0 0
ALBANY       82 62 87 56 88/ 30 10 0 0 0
VALDOSTA     82 64 86 58 89/ 30 10 0 0 0
CROSS CITY   86 63 88 59 88/ 30 10 0 0 0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY ALL
     MARINE ZONES.

&&

$$

JAMSKI/CAMP