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000 FXUS62 KTAE 111852 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 252 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2008 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...LARGE SCALE FEATURES ARE EVOLVING PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TRAPPING THE UPPER LOW AND SFC TROUGH OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. THE UPPER LOW AND SFC TROUGH WILL BE FORCED WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. INCREASING LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED SFC CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS GENERAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL THE TROUGH GETS WEST OF THE CWA. TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS WHEN THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE EVENT ARE EXPECTED. POPS WILL THEN BE ON THE DECREASE MONDAY AS THE TROUGH WASHES OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUD COVER. FOG FORMATION AT NIGHT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...AFTER SEVERAL RUNS SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF...THEIR LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE BEGINNING TO DIVERGE. BOTH MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE HANGING ON OVER THE SE U.S ON TUESDAY. THE GFS THEN RETROGRADES THE HIGH TO THE WESTERN GULF BY THURSDAY WITH A ZONAL PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS WHICH STALLS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL REGION. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH AXIS THROUGH THE NATIONS MID SECTION WHICH INDUCES WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. THE ECMWF SOLUTION SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE LINGERING OVER THE SE CORNER OF THE U.S WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE THEN WEAKENS AND RETREATS TO THE EAST AS A DEEPENING TROUGH SWINGS FROM THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND OFF THE SE U.S COAST ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THIS SENDS A COLD FRONT INTO AND ACROSS OUR CWA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS ONLY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS FRONT. EITHER SOLUTION...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY. THE ONLY DAYS IN QUESTION FOR POPS WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF POPS FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE CLIMO WITH MAX READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. && .AVIATION...BLANKET OF STRATOCUMULUS COVERS MUCH OF GEORGIA AND ALABAMA WITH CIGS BEING REPORTED BETWEEN 2000 AND 5000 FT. HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS ARE BEGINNING TO POP UP. ALSO...SCT TO BKN CIGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN NORTH FLORIDA. CLOUDY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NE FLORIDA AND SE GEORGIA AND MOVE WEST...AND MAY EVEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT VLD AND AREAS EAST OF TLH AND ABY. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. && .MARINE...WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WILL HAVE SCEC CONDITIONS TONIGHT OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 66 83 68 84 65 / 10 30 20 20 10 PANAMA CITY 69 83 70 83 69 / 10 20 20 20 10 DOTHAN 64 79 65 83 62 / 10 30 20 20 10 ALBANY 64 79 66 82 62 / 30 40 30 20 10 VALDOSTA 65 81 67 83 63 / 30 40 20 20 10 CROSS CITY 66 85 68 86 64 / 10 30 20 20 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ CAMP/WATSON/BARRY