000
FXUS62 KTAE 111852
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
252 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...LARGE SCALE FEATURES
ARE EVOLVING PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IS BUILDING
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TRAPPING THE UPPER LOW AND SFC TROUGH
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. THE UPPER LOW AND SFC TROUGH WILL BE
FORCED WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED SFC CONVERGENCE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS GENERAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
UNTIL THE TROUGH GETS WEST OF THE CWA. TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER
THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS WHEN THE HIGHEST POPS OF
THE EVENT ARE EXPECTED. POPS WILL THEN BE ON THE DECREASE MONDAY
AS THE TROUGH WASHES OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUD COVER. FOG
FORMATION AT NIGHT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...AFTER SEVERAL RUNS SHOWING
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF...THEIR LONG RANGE
SOLUTIONS ARE BEGINNING TO DIVERGE. BOTH MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
HANGING ON OVER THE SE U.S ON TUESDAY. THE GFS THEN RETROGRADES THE
HIGH TO THE WESTERN GULF BY THURSDAY WITH A ZONAL PATTERN DEVELOPING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS WHICH STALLS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WELL
NORTH OF THE LOCAL REGION. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH AXIS THROUGH THE NATIONS MID SECTION
WHICH INDUCES WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN U.S.  THE ECMWF
SOLUTION SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE LINGERING OVER THE SE CORNER OF THE
U.S WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE THEN WEAKENS AND RETREATS TO THE EAST AS A
DEEPENING TROUGH SWINGS FROM THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND OFF THE SE
U.S COAST ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THIS SENDS A COLD FRONT INTO
AND ACROSS OUR CWA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY WITH A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS FILTERING IN ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS ONLY LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THIS FRONT. EITHER SOLUTION...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SHOULD BE DRY. THE ONLY DAYS IN QUESTION FOR POPS WILL BE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
POPS FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE CLIMO WITH MAX
READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...BLANKET OF STRATOCUMULUS COVERS MUCH OF GEORGIA AND
ALABAMA WITH CIGS BEING REPORTED BETWEEN 2000 AND 5000 FT.
HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS ARE BEGINNING TO POP UP. ALSO...SCT TO BKN
CIGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN NORTH FLORIDA. CLOUDY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NE FLORIDA AND SE GEORGIA AND MOVE
WEST...AND MAY EVEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT VLD AND
AREAS EAST OF TLH AND ABY. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
WILL HAVE SCEC CONDITIONS TONIGHT OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  66  83  68  84  65 /  10  30  20  20  10
PANAMA CITY  69  83  70  83  69 /  10  20  20  20  10
DOTHAN       64  79  65  83  62 /  10  30  20  20  10
ALBANY       64  79  66  82  62 /  30  40  30  20  10
VALDOSTA     65  81  67  83  63 /  30  40  20  20  10
CROSS CITY   66  85  68  86  64 /  10  30  20  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

CAMP/WATSON/BARRY