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000 FXUS62 KTAE 130106 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 906 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008 .DISCUSSION...00 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1034 MB HIGH OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE COASTAL TROF EAST OF THE GA COAST IS BECOMING LESS DISTINCT ON MANUAL SURFACE ANALYSIS. A STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS NOTED WITH VERY COLD AIR BEHIND IT OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES. LOW LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER MOIST AS EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND EXPECT STRATUS TO ONCE AGAIN FILL IN TONIGHT AND LOWER AS TIME MOVES ON. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ITS CENTER OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A LARGE TROF REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE ROCKIES. WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO FILL...AND SHOULD LOSE ITS IDENTITY BY MORNING. THE KTAE SOUNDING AT 00 UTC CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOIST LOW LAYER THAT WILL PROMOTE STRATUS FORMATION THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION RELATES TO THE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND THAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE MARINE SECTION BELOW. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS STRAIGHT FORWARD. THE STRATUS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH AN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE. WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN...AND LOSS OF ANY INSTABILITY...THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS ENDED...SO WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS. EVERYTHING IS ELSE IS ON TRACK...SO NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES NEEDED. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT! && .AVIATION...DEEP EASTERLY WIND FLOW AROUND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT LOW CLOUD DECK AGAIN DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH IFR CEILINGS LIKELY. A FEW SHOWERS LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON POSSIBLY PASSING ANY OF THE TERMINALS WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS POSSIBLE. && .MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVERNIGHT WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE EASTERLY FLOW REGIMES...WINDS WILL PEAK TOWARD DAYBREAK OVER THE GULF WATERS. WITH WINDS ALREADY IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE...A PERIOD OF WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS LOOKS GOOD IN THE PRESENT FORECAST. THE ONLY CONCERN IS WHETHER THE INNER LEG FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO SUWANNEE RIVER WILL EXPERIENCE SCA CONDITIONS. THE LATEST OBSERVATION FROM CEDAR KEY HAS COME IN AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH KEATON BEACH AT 14KT. BASED ON THIS...IT APPEARS PRUDENT GIVEN THE MUCH TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT TO HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAST REMAINING INNER LEG...INCLUDING APALACHEE BAY SINCE THE WINDS 10 MILES OUT WILL BE HIGHER THAN OBSERVED AT THE COAST AND MAY INDEED EXPERIENCE 20 KNOT WINDS. && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GMZ750...GMZ755...GMZ770...GMZ775. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GMZ730...GMZ765. && $$ AVIATION...GOREE REST OF DISCUSSION...GODSEY