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000 FXUS62 KTAE 140145 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 945 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2008 .UPDATE...THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN REGION. MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THIS AXIS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE 00Z/14 TAE SOUNDING SHOWED DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ABOVE 600 MB (OR 13-14 KFT). HOWEVER...JUST UPSTREAM OR NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SOME DRIER IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH DEW POINTS NOW IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...WHICH WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ADVISORY CONDITIONS DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS. THE MODELS SHOW THIS TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING. WE ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES IN THE GRIDS AND NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...AT 01Z...ALL TAF SITES WERE REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS... BUT SEVERAL HAD BROKEN CIGS ABOVE 3000 FT. A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. BUT STILL...IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS AT LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE FORECAST EARLY ON TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY. && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM... COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM... WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ UPDATE...GIBBS AVIATION...WATSON