000
FXUS62 KTAE 140519
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
120 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL
TRANSITION TO BECOME NEARLY ZONAL BY THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE EAST WILL FLATTEN AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL REGION
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ELONGATING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE GULF THURSDAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS MORNING
WILL ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD COVERING THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE U.S.
DURING THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY BUT MODELS SHOW ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HOLDING
OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER THURSDAY EVENING. THUS...THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL
ALSO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. MAX TEMPS EACH DAY WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL AND A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE. AT NIGHT...
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...ZONAL FLOW DURING END
OF SHORT TERM PERIOD BEGINS TO AMPLIFY EARLY FRIDAY AS A PERSISTENT
STACKED RIDGE CENTERED OVER SRN GA SHIFT S OF CWA IN RESPONSE TO A
DEVELOPING TROUGH THAT DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS TROUGH
CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY (AIDED BY UPPER SHORT WAVE THAT TRAVERSES THE
SOUTHEAST DURING DAYTIME) AS IT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD EASTERN CONUS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LAST TWO MODEL RUNS DIFFER FROM 24 HRS AGO WITH
MODESTLY HIGHER UPPER DYNAMICS AND A MORE POTENT FRONT CROSSING THE
CWA ON FRIDAY BRINGING PRECIPITATION NW-SE AND ACROSS CWA DAYTIME
(NW HALF) THRU LATE NIGHT (SE HALF). MODELS THEN SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO REGION STARTING ON SAT WITH A COOLER AND
INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR MASS (NW FLOW) FILTERING IN SAT AND
CONTINUING INTO TUES. SO EXTENDED WILL SHOW SCT POPS FOR FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...AND NIL FOR REMAINING PERIODS. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO ON
FRIDAY BUT DROP WELL BELOW CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND AS A COOLER
AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPS THEN INCH UP TO
SEASONABLE TEMPS MON AND TUES AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODIFY.

&&

.MARINE...ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS  WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 20 KTS GUSTING NEAR 30 KTS AND SEAS AROUND 7
FEET AT THE BUOYS. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SINKS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MARINE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BUT POSSIBLY INCREASE TO ADVISORY
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE PIX SHOW THAT  A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS
CURRENTLY OVER S CAROLINA/GEORGIA WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE LOCAL
AREA FROM NE-SW THROUGH TODAY. LATEST OBS INDICATE THAT LOWER
STRATUS NOT DEVELOPING UPSTREAM LIKE LAST NIGHT AND THIS CONFIRMED
BY 00Z GFS. SO AM INCLINED TO BACK OFF ON INHERITED PREDAWN IFR
VSBYS/ CIGS AT GA TERMINALS. STILL...THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING FOR MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY MVFR VSBYS...MAINLY
KABY AND KVLD AND IFR CIGS AT KVLD THRU 14Z. THEN...VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE PAST SUNSET. AIRMASS SHOULD
BE DRY ENOUGH TO PREVENT CIGS/VSBY RESTRICTIONS TUES NIGHT INTO
WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA
TODAY AND REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RH VALUES
MAY DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS ON WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER
DURATIONS DO NOT NECESSITATE WATCHES ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  89 59 89 55 89/ 0 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY  87 65 88 62 88/ 0 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN       86 56 87 56 89/ 0 0 0 0 0
ALBANY       85 56 88 55 90/ 0 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA     85 58 88 56 89/ 0 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY   87 59 88 56 90/ 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING ALL
     ZONES.

&&

$$

BARRY/BLOCK