000
FXUS62 KTAE 151834
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
240 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2008

.SYNOPSIS...THE PERSISTENT SFC RIDGE TO OUR N REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE CWA AS IT SLOWLY HEADS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW
PASSING FAIR WX CU. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY
RELAXES...BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING FOR ANY WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS TO MATERIALIZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE STACKED RIDGING WHICH HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR
SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER
THE REGION FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24-36 HRS...BEFORE A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT FINALLY APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER ON FRIDAY. ALL OF THE
DEEP LAYER WARM AND DRY AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
SE U.S. WILL NOT BE DISPLACED VERY EASILY...WHICH WILL MAKE IT VERY
DIFFICULT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT POPS OR QPF TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. FURTHERMORE...THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE THE BENEFIT
OF MUCH LIFT...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...OR RETURN FLOW MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...SO EXPECT DECREASING POPS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE CWA...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF ANY THUNDER. ALSO...HIGH
TEMPS TOMORROW COULD BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS OVER PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR...AS TLH HAS A RECORD OF 90 DEGREES ON OCT. 16.

&&

.LONG TERM...SAT THROUGH WED.
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE GENERALLY QUIET. BOTH THE
15/00Z GFS AND THE 14/12Z EURO ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE
UPPER TROF THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL MOVE EAST OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY LATE MONDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A TROF ON THE WEST AND EAST
COAST WITH A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS. UP
UNTIL THIS POINT...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN HAD BEEN QUITE PROGRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...AS THIS MID LEVEL RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES INTO
WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN IS PREDICTED THE STALL...TO A GREATER
DEGREE IN THE EURO...WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN OMEGA TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN
SETTING UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. IF THE
LATEST GFS IS CORRECT...THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN QUICKER
WITH A POTENT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NORMAL VALUES FOR MID OCTOBER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MID AND UPPER
80S OF LAST WEEKEND AND THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK WILL BE A
DISTANT MEMORY BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...THE ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS HAVE HELD ON A BIT LONGER THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED...BUT ARE REMAINING BELOW SCEC LEVELS. MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THU AND FRI UNDER THE SFC RIDGE...BEFORE
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH
A FEW-SCT CU FIELD DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
FROM KPFN TO KTLH AND KVLD. SKIES WILL CLEAR ONCE AGAIN WITH THE
SETTING OF THE SUN THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING SOME AREAS OF MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS WITH LATE NIGHT
RADIATION FOG. CURRENT TAFS ARE SHOWING 3-5SM AT ALL TERMINALS
OUTSIDE OF KPFN...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR VIS POSSIBLE. WILL
RE-EVALUATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THE BRIEF FOG EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THIS MORNING`S 12 UTC TAE SOUNDING SHOWED A FAIRLY
SHARP POCKET OF DRY AIR AROUND 985 MB...SO EXPECTED SOME SIGNIFICANT
DRYING IN THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA TO OCCUR ONCE TEMPS REACHED THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT THUS FAR...THIS HAS ONLY TAKEN PLACE IN
MARIANNA WHICH HAS ALREADY VERIFIED WITH SUB 35% RH AND GREATER THAN
75 DISPERSION. AM BECOMING A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE NE FLOW FROM JAX
MAY BE MODIFYING SOME OF THIS DRY AIR...BUT STILL HAVE A FEW HOURS
TO GO FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES TO REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH 35%.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  55  89  58  85  60 /   0   0  05  20  20
PANAMA CITY  60  87  63  84  63 /   0   0  05  30  20
DOTHAN       57  89  61  81  56 /   0   0  10  40  20
ALBANY       56  89  61  82  57 /   0   0  05  40  20
VALDOSTA     56  90  57  86  60 /   0   0  05  30  20
CROSS CITY   55  90  57  87  61 /   0   0  05  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.

GA...NONE.

FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 22Z FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GADSDEN...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...LEON.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
PUBLIC/MARINE...GOULD
LONG TERM...GODSEY