000
FXUS62 KTAE 130648
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
245 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER
RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DROP TO THE
SOUTH AND CENTER OVER THE SE CORNER OF THE U.S TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TODAY...WE WILL SEE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. A
WEAK SURFACE TROF IS STILL EVIDENT OFF THE GA/FL COAST WITH AN AREA
OF SHOWERS MOVING INLAND OVER SE GA AND NE FL. THIS ALONG WITH
REMNANT VORT ENERGY OVER OUR AREA WILL JUSTIFY THE INCLUSION OF LOW
END CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER...AS WITH THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER OF
SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THE
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO WEAKEN SO A RETURN TO PARTLY
CLOUDY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY. MAX TEMPS
WILL WARM ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. DEEP
LAYER RIDGING WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE THROUGH SHORT TERM
BECOMES ZONAL ON THURSDAY ANCHORED BY A STRONG EAST-WEST RIDGE FROM
THE BAHAMAS TO BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE A TROUGH DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR GA DROPS SWD.
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS IT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE
EASTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER THAN GFS
WITH DEEPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY WITH A MORE
POTENT COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR CWA DURING THE DAY. THE GFS SOLUTION
IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER WITH DECENT UPPER DYNAMICS OFFSET BY A
MOISTURE STARVED FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR MASS FILTERING IN ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH COULD YIELD RED
FLAG FIRE CONDITIONS. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION.
THUS,ISOLD POPS FRI-SUN WITH FRONT...OTHERWISE NO POPS FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH SAT, FOLLOWED BY
MORE SEASONAL TEMPS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS COOLEST AIR SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA RESULTING IN CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SINKS SOUTH OVER
THE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK BUT ELEVATE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...DEEP EASTERLY WIND FLOW AROUND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT CURRENT LOW CLOUD
DECK TO PERSIST DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH IFR CEILINGS LIKELY
UNTIL AROUND 15Z. THEN...SLOW LIFTING WITH MVFR CIGS TO LINGER UNTIL
AROUND 18Z. VFR WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY EAST
WINDS POSSIBLE ALL TERMINALS 18Z UNTIL AT LEAST SUNSET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY DIP BELOW 35
PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  84 64 87 60 89/ 30 10 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY  85 68 87 64 89/ 30 10 0 0 0
DOTHAN       83 62 87 57 88/ 30 10 0 0 0
ALBANY       82 62 87 56 88/ 30 10 0 0 0
VALDOSTA     82 64 86 58 89/ 30 10 0 0 0
CROSS CITY   86 63 88 59 88/ 30 10 0 0 0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     ENTIRE MARINE AREA.

&&

$$

BARRY/BLOCK