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000 FXUS62 KTAE 170159 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 959 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2008 .UPDATE...THE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM CENTRAL TN TO THE LA COAST AND BEYOND. SOME VERY THIN CIRRUS IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. THE 00Z/17 TAE SOUNDING SHOWED PLENTY OF DRY AIR WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 850 MB. THE WIND PROFILE INDICATED VERY LIGHT WINDS BELOW 10KFT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINED WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT (SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING) OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. THE AFTERNOON HIGH TODAY WAS ONLY TWO DEGREES SHORT OF THE RECORD HERE IN TALLAHASSEE..WHICH WAS 90 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1990/85. WE ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS IN THE GRIDS WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY...MOST WIDESPREAD AND DENSE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...WHERE MVFR TO LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...WITH PATCHES OF MVFR VISIBILITIES OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. BY MID MORNING FRIDAY THE FOG WILL EVAPORATE UNDER THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE DEVELOPING AND SPREADING EAST FROM SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING... ENDING ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE TRI STATE AREA. && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GIBBS AVIATION...DUVAL