000
FXUS62 KTAE 120000
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2008

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR/UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW SEVERAL FEATURES THIS
EVENING: A DEEP AMPLITUDE LOW/TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE INTERMTN WEST,
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES TO THE NRN
GOMEX, AND A MOISTURE PLUME FROM HURRICANE NORBERT STREAMING NEWD
INTO THE PLAINS. CLOSER TO HOME, A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED
NEAR THE GA COAST. DRIER AIR ALOFT WAS FILTERING SWD ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE REGION ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WAS CONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS (BELOW 700 MB) DUE TO
MODERATE E-NE FLOW. WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT INTERACTED WITH THE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME BRIEF, LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OVER OUR GA ZONES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RADAR TRENDS THE PAST FEW
HOURS HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT, WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE GA ZONES, WITH
SILENT 10S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW CIGS LOOKS IN ORDER WITH TERMINALS
IN COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ALREADY DROPPING
INTO THE LOW MVFR RANGE, AND THESE LOW CIGS ARE ALREADY SPREADING
SOUTHWESTWARD. GFS/NAM GUIDANCE ALONG WITH SREF PROBABILITIES
SUPPORT MVFR CIGS ALL SITES OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS
AT OUR EASTERN TERMINALS, MAINLY AFTER 08Z SUNDAY. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 15Z, WITH ALL SITES LIKELY VFR BY 18Z. WINDS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOCALLY GUSTY UP TO 18KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST OBS INDICATE NELY WINDS 10-15 KTS/2-3 FT SEAS NEAR
SHORE AND 15-20 KTS/3-4 FT SEAS OFFSHORE. SHORT RANGE MODEL PROGS
SUGGEST THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT, WITH EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS. NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED FOR THE
EVENING FCST UPDATE.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

JAMSKI/GODSEY